云南相似大震人员伤亡差异因素分析

1976年云南龙陵、1988年云南澜沧-耿马地震发震时间、地点、震级相近,地震类型相近(双主震),极震区烈度相同,灾区社会经济状况基本相似,但人员伤亡相差10倍。通过对比分析找出云南两次相似大震人员伤亡的主要差异因素:预警型前震(或临震预报发布)是减少地震人员伤亡的最重要因素;高烈度区(Ⅸ)面积大小是影响人员伤亡的最重要因素。特定环境条件下次生灾害(震后火灾)对死亡人数有影响;集体行为的偶然因素对死亡人数也有影响。

Analyses of the Casualty Different Factors for Great Similar Earthquakes Occurred in Yunnan Province

Although both of the Longling earthquake in 1976 and the Lancang-Gengma earthquake in 1988 have similar parameters,such as time,location,magnitude,type(double main shocks),intensity of the meizoseismal area and socioeconomic states,the casualties are different as much as 10 times.Through comparison and analysis,the major different factors of the casualties for these two extremely similar earthquakes occurred in Yunnan are found out.The early-warning foreshock(or short-impending prediction) is the most important factor in reducing the casualties.The area size in high intensity(IX) is the most vital factor to casualty.The secondary disasters(post-earthquake fire) under certain conditions and the accidental factor of the collective activity also influence the death toll.