原生态环境下广西涠洲岛近50年气候变率的分析

广西涠洲岛气象站由于其特定的地理位置,使得该站成为广西为数不多、大气观测环境50年来持续保持原有生态环境的气象台站之一。应用该岛屿气象站及与之相邻的广西北海市合浦气象站1956~2005年的气温、雨量等气象资料,分析、比较近50年来北部湾海域气候自然变化和在城镇大规模发展影响下气候变化的差异及发展趋势:用Yamamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均气温、雨量等要素季和年时间序列进行突变检验,对定量地论述在全球气候变暖情况下区域性气候自然变化的响应有非常重要的意义。

Analysis of Climate Variation of the Weizhoudao Island in Guangxi Province Based on Original Environment during the Last 50 Years

Weizhoudao island meteorological station has been keeping its original environment because of its special geographic position during the last 50 years.In the vicinity of Weizhoudao island,landing surface of Hepu meteorological station has been changed tremendously as urban growth since the 1980s.Based on the data of monthly air temperature and precipitation from both meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005.The difference of climate variations and tendencies of Weizhoudao island have been ananlyzed and compared with Hepu meteorological station during the last 50 years.The climate jump has been examined in terms of 5-year moving average season and annual series of 2 factors using Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method.The annual mean temperature was tending to go up and increased 0.615℃ in Weizhoudao island and 1.04℃ in Hepu during the last 50 years.The departure values of annual mean temperature have been positive since 1989.The linear tendency values of annual pecipitation was tending to go up and increased 119.6mm in Weizhoudao island during the last 50 years.The variation of annual precipitaion in Weizhoudao island during the last 50 years had gone throng two increase periods that occurred from 1972 to 1986 and 1993 to 2002.Between them there was a decrease period from 1956 to 1971 and 1987 to 1992 and 2003 to 2005.Climate jumps tested by both Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method in Weizhoudao island during the last 50 years are as follows.According to the annual mean temperature,an abrupt warming occurred in the late 1980s.The amplitude of abrupt variation was +0.35℃.The seasonal abrupt warming in spring,summer,autumn and winter all took place in the mid or the late 1980s,and abrupt warming in winter since 1997.The abrupt change of summer and winter precipitation occurred prior to the 1970s.Based on the facts of climate changes of Weizhoudao island,it is held that the abrupt warming of the Weizhoudao island during 50 years probably resulted from keeping original ecosystem environment.