江苏及邻区地震活动自仿射分形特征及预报应用

对江苏及邻区地震频次自仿射分形H值的变化特点作了研究,并对1970年以来发生在该地区的5级以上地震作了回溯性预测检验。研究结果显示,江苏及邻区地震频次的H值在0.59~0.99之间,地震活动具有确定和随机的双重属性,同时表明地震活动具有正继承性;对江苏及邻区的震例及其预报效能评价的研究表明,地震频次H值下降的异常现象与江苏及邻区5级以上地震具有较好的对应关系,回溯性预测检验得到的R值为0.365。因而地震频次H值在该地区的地震预报中有较好的应用前景,值得用来探求未来中强地震可能发生的危险时段。

Self-affine Fractal Characteristics of Seismicity over Jiangsu and Adjacent Areas and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction

In this paper,the characteristic of self-affine fractal H-value of earthquake frequency in Jiangsu Province and adjacent areas is studied,and the retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in this region since 1970 is made.It is indicated that the H-value is between 0.59 and 0.99,which illustrates that the earthquake activity has both determinacy and randomicity as well as persistence.It is also indicated that the abnormal variation of lowering H-value is preferably corresponded to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in the predictive efficiency evaluation of the earthquake examples in this area,and that the R-value derived from retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in this region since 1970 is 0.365,therefore the H-value can be used for predicting earthquake in Jiangsu Province and adjacent area.It is worthy using H-value to explore the dangerous period of time for the possible earthquakes to occur.