农地城市流转驱动机制的时空尺度效应分析

协调好经济发展和农地保护的矛盾是实现我国社会经济可持续发展战略的重要基础,农地城市流转是这一矛盾的焦点。农地城市流转在不同的规模尺度上具有不同的特征,某个研究尺度上的影响因子可能在其它尺度上并不发生作用。论文从影响农地城市流转的社会经济因素出发,应用1999~2004年省级数据分析了不同时空尺度下农地城市流转的驱动机制。研究表明,影响因子本身及其影响系数随研究尺度发生不同程度的变化。其中,我国农地城市流转驱动机制的时间尺度效应表现为,GDP、固定资产投资和人口增长一直是影响农地城市流转的主要因素,但随着时间的推移,各个影响因素对农地城市流转的推动作用不同;我国农地城市流转驱动机制的空间尺度效应表现为,固定资产投资和GDP对东部省份农地城市流转的影响最明显,产业结构升级和固定资产投资对中部省份农地城市流转的影响最明显,而GDP和总人口对西部省份农地城市流转的影响最明显,各个影响因素对不同区域农地城市流转的推动方向也不同。根据上述的研究结果,文章提出了相应的政策建议。

Scale Effect Analysis of Driving Mechanism of Rural-urban Land Conversion

Harmonizing the contradiction between economic growth and cultivated land conservation has important effect on the realization of sustainable development in China,and rural-urban land conversion is the focus of that contradiction. Rural-urban land conversion patterns are governed by a broad variety of potential driving forces and constraint which act over a large scale. It has been recognized that the types and effects of rural-urban land conversion drivers may vary with spatial scale and multi-scale investigation of rural-urban land conversation patterns which is essential for fully understanding of its complexity. From the viewpoint of social and economic factors that influence rural-urban land conversion,this paper analyses the driving mechanism for rural-urban land conversations in different spatial-temporal scales by using province data from 1999 to 2004. The results show that: (1)Relationships obtained at a certain scale of analysis may not be directly applied at other scales and the variables included in the models and their relative importance varied between rural-urban land conversion types. (2)Temporal scale effect in driving mechanism of rural-urban land conversion in China changes as follows: as long as the time influences forces for rural-land conversion,but different factors have different driving effects passes by,GDP,fixed assets investment and population increase which always used to be the main factors affect conversion. In 1999 and 2004,one percent increase in fixed assets investment will make 0.1548ha and 0.4344 ha rural land be converted into urban land,one percent increase in GDP will make 0.1969 ha and 0.2968 ha rural land be converted into urban land,one percent increase in total population will make 0.4469 ha and 0.0351 ha rural land be converted into urban land. (3)Spatial scale effect in driving mechanism of rural-urban land conversion in China changes as follows: One percent increase in GDP and fixed assets investment will make 0.20372 ha and 0.4909 ha rural land be converted into urban land,which obviously influence rural-urban land conversion in the eastern provinces; one percent increase in industrial structure upgrade and fixed assets investment will make 0.23089 ha rural land not to be converted into urban land and 0.1151 ha rural land be converted into urban land,which show the most obvious influence on rural-urban land conversion in the middle provinces; one percent increase in GDP and total population will make 0.2008 ha and 0.24901 ha rural land be converted into urban land,which obviously influence rural-urban land conversion in the western provinces. Some valuable propositions are presented.