| 旱涝趋势的投影寻踪预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 李祚泳,邓新民.旱涝趋势的投影寻踪预测模型[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(4):68-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李祚泳 邓新民 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都气象学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省应用基础研究基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了投影寻踪回归（ＰＰＲ）建模的基本原理和算法实现。选用太阳黑子年平均数和旱涝分型的转移概率作因子，建立了长江中下游旱涝趋势的ＰＰＲ预测模型，并与用相同资料建立的Ｂ－Ｐ神经网络模型预测结果进行了比较。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝趋势 投影寻踪回归 预测模型 |
MODEL FOR DROUGHT AND FLOOD TREND PREDICTION USING PROJECTION PURSUIT REGRESSION |
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| Li Zuoyong,Deng Xinmin,Xin Yiqing.MODEL FOR DROUGHT AND FLOOD TREND PREDICTION USING PROJECTION PURSUIT REGRESSION[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1997,6(4):68-73. |
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| Authors: | Li Zuoyong Deng Xinmin Xin Yiqing |
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| Abstract: | A fundamental idea and implement algorithm of projection pursuit regression (PPR) are introduced.The trend prediction model for drought and flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is developed with the average numbers of sunspots yearly and the transfer probability of drought and flood types as the factors.The comparisons of the prediction results batween the PPR model and the B P neural network model are performed using the same data. |
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| Keywords: | Drought and flood disaster Projection pursuit regression Prediction model |
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