1961-2000年干旱对我国冬小麦产量的影响

假定在目前条件下的冬小麦作物品种、耕种措施和土壤特性不变,利用WOFOST作物模型,模拟了1961-2000年干旱对我国冬小麦产量的影响。模拟结果显示:1961-1980年干旱对我国冬小麦产量影响较为严重,干旱使整个麦区冬小麦平均减产4．6%,使北方麦区冬小麦平均减产12%。1981 -2000年,干旱对冬小麦产量的影响明显减轻。总体上,1961-2000年虽然冬小麦生育期内降水量持续减少,但干旱对冬小麦产量的影响没有加重的趋势。通过分析发现,我国北方地区冬小麦生育期内的降水和干旱与产量并没有显著相关关系,但春季降水和干旱则与产量显著相关,揭示了我国北方春季降水量对冬小麦产量影响的重要性。

Influence of drought on winter wheat yield in China during 1961-2000

Assuming that the winter wheat varieties,cultivating measures and soil characteristics were under current condition,the influence of drought in 1961-2000 on winter wheat yield in China was simulated with WOFOST crop model.The results indicated that the average yield decrease induced by drought was 4.6% for whole winter wheat region and 12% for northern China in 1961-1980,which was more serious than that in 1981-2000.The drought effects on the winter wheat yields kept a constant roughly,although the precipitation during the growing period had decreased over the last 40 years.The correlation coefficients were then calculated between precipitation and impact of drought on yields,the results indicat that there were significant correlation between spring precipitati- on and yield loss induced by drought,while the correlation were not significant between precipitation in growing pe- riod and yield loss.This point out the importance of the spring precipitation for winter wheat production in northern China.