Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates |
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Authors: | Paweł Bartoszczuk Joanna Horabik |
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Institution: | 1. Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, Warsaw, 01-447, Poland
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Abstract: | We simulate the market for emission permits by considering uncertainty in emission inventory reports. The approach taken in this analysis is to enhance the emissions reported in each region by a certain part of their uncertainty when compliance with the Kyoto targets is being proved. While this formulation is not new in the literature, we define the uncertainty component in a way that enables comparison with the approach of effective permits presented in Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories, (this issue). We show and explain that the transformation to effective permits bears additional costs apart from those resulting from shifting the Kyoto targets. |
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