区域生态环境演变与经济增长的耦合效应分析——以宁夏回族自治区为例

以宁夏回族自治区为研究案例,基于1985年以来的相关历史统计数据,以能值分析计算结果为基本依据,采用广义脉冲响应函数、结构分解分析等方法,定量研究经济发展对环境压力的影响,以及生态环境对经济增长的反馈影响。研究结果表明：1985—2005年间,经济发展对区域不可更新资源的依赖度越来越高,对环境产生的压力也不断加大;废弃物排放量随着经济增长在不断加大,而且还未出现废弃物排放量有所降低的趋势。无论是以物质投入为表征的环境压力,还是以废弃物排放为表征的环境压力,都呈上升趋势,导致其上升的主要因素都是经济规模效应,经济结构效应在初期表现出对环境压力的抑制作用,但影响程度不大,随着产业结构的进一步演化,经济结构开始表现出增量效应。技术效应对环境压力的增加总体表现出抑制作用,但不足以抵消经济规模的增量效应。因此,转变经济发展方式,完善和重组区域社会经济活动过程显得非常迫切,这种迫切性将是进一步推动区域循环经济发展的重要驱动力来源。

A study on the coupling relationships between regional economic growth and environmental pressure: Case of Ningxia Autonomous Region

Based upon historical data（from 1985 to now）from Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,this paper adopts different methods, including general impulse response function,structural decomposition analysis and emergy analysis,to quantitatively study the impacts of economic development on environmental quality,as well as the service functions of ecosystem on economic development. Our research findings indicate that from 1985 to 2005 the local economic development mainly relied on the local non-renewable resources and the total amount of solid wastes increased with the economic development.Environmental pressures,featured both by materials input and waste emissions,present an increasing trend.The key factor for such an increase is economy of scale.At the early stage of economic development,such an influence was not very obvious.But with the further optimization of economic structure and technology improvement,the environmental pressure from one individual project decreased,but the total environmental pressure for the whole economic system still increased due to intensified economic activities.Consequently,to change the traditional economic development model and restructure the related social economic activities is very crucial.Such an effort is the main driver for further promote regional circular economy development.