基于LMDI分解方法的河北省PM2.5排放驱动因素分析

研究了河北省1990—2015年PM_(2.5)的排放总量及各个产业部门的排放量分布,并应用LMDI模型对五大部门PM_(2.5)排放变化的驱动因素进行了较全面的分解分析,以找出每个部门中PM_(2.5)排放变化的关键驱动因素.同时,通过对原始数据的整理分析和模型计算,结果发现:①工业、生活消费、农业部门是河北省PM_(2.5)排放的三大来源.其中,工业部门是PM_(2.5)排放的最主要贡献部门,占PM_(2.5)总排放量的70%;生活消费部门的贡献位居第二,占比约24%.②对于生产端,经济规模总量扩张是PM_(2.5)排放量增加的最主要原因;能源利用效率的提高和污染治理工艺水平的改进使得各部门的排放强度减弱,明显缓解了PM_(2.5)的排放增长,部门经济结构的优化也可带来明显的减排效应.③对于消费端,人均收入的提高促进了PM_(2.5)排放的增加,倡导绿色消费模式可以有效减缓PM_(2.5)排放.根据以上结论,本研究通过找到各部门存在的问题,为河北省大气污染治理提供参考和借鉴.

Drivers of PM2.5 emission in Hebei based on LMDI decomposition analysis

With the process of industrialization in Hebei Province, air pollution, especially haze has become a hot topic in recent years. PM_2.5 is a major component of haze, which strongly affects mortality and morbidity through respiratory and cardiopulmonary diseases. In this paper, the sectoral distribution of PM_2.5 emissions were presented. LMDI model was further employed to analyze different driving factors of the changes of PM_2.5 emissions in different sectors of Hebei between 1990 and 2015. The results show that industrial sector is the main contributor of PM_2.5 emissions at production perspective, which constitutes 70% of total emissions. The contribution of the household consumption ranks the 2^nd with a proportion of 24%. The expansion of the economic scale of the production sector is the main driver for the increase of PM_2.5 emissions. The improvement of energy efficiency and pollution control technology weakens the emission intensityof each sector, and thereby alleviates the PM_2.5 emissions. Economic structure optimization also plays an important role in emission reduction. The increase of per capita income accelerates the increase of PM_2.5 emissions from a consumption perspective. Finally, suggestions for air pollution control of Hebei province were put forward.