一种城市综合承载力双向复合动态评价方法及实证研究

随着城市的发展,其对资源、生态环境、基础设施、社会经济等各种承载的需求同步增长,单一承载力逐渐无法满足对城市发展可持续状态的综合全面评估.城市综合承载力是社会、经济、环境、资源协调作用和协调程度的具体表征.综合承载力与人口规模、社会经济活动发展带来的压力之间存在动态互动关系,只有承载力和压力维持动态平衡,才能实现城市系统的可持续发展.本文通过构建城市双向复合动态可持续评估方法,量化负向城市压力(UP)和正向城市综合承载力(UCCC)及其二者之间的复合动态关系,结合层次分析法和蒙特卡洛模拟,从经济、资源、社会三方面构建评价指标,综合考虑各影响因素的不确定性和相互作用,实现逐个单点时间城市综合承载力的概率分布模拟,进而通过复合动态关系判断模型实现单个区域单点时间的可持续发展状态的判断.最后,以广州市为例,对所提出方法进行应用.结果表明,2004—2016年,广州市的综合承载力和城市压力相互协调、相互适应,城市发展整体呈可持续状态.但2012年以来资源环境承载力有一定的下降,尤其是水资源承载力和大气环境承载力下降,需要引起重视.

Theoretical and empirical study of a bidirectional composite dynamic evaluation method of urban comprehensive carrying capacity

When a city develops, demands on resources, the environment, infrastructure, social services increase simultaneously. A single measure of carrying capacity is insufficient as a comprehensive assessment of the urban sustainable development state. Comprehensive carrying capacity is a concrete representation of social economic, environmental and resource available. There is a dynamic interaction between comprehensive carrying capacity and the pressure brought by increasing population and associated economic development. Only by maintaining the dynamic balance between the carrying capacity and population needs can the sustainable development of the urban system be realized. In this paper, by construction bidirectional composite dynamic sustainable assessment method, the negative urban pressure (UP), the forward urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCCC) and their complex dynamic relationship were quantified. Combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainty and interaction of each influencing factor were considered synthetically to realize the probability distribution simulation of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity at a single time point. Furthermore, the sustainable development state at a single time of a single region can be judged by a composite dynamic evaluation method. Taking Guangzhou as an example, the application of the proposed method showed than the comprehensive carrying capacity and the urban pressure of Guangzhou were coordinated to each other from 2004 to 2016, and the overall development of the city was sustainable. However, since 2012, the carrying capacity of resources and environment declined, especially the carrying capacity of water resources and atmospheric environment, and there need attention.