Risk assessment of offshore crude oil pipeline failure |
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Institution: | 1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Fuxue Road No.18, Changping District, Beijing 102249, PR China;2. Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8568, Japan |
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Abstract: | Failure of Leak Detection System (LDS) to detect pipeline leakages or ruptures may result in drastic consequences that could lead to excessive financial losses. To minimize the occurrence of such failure, the functionality of the LDS and the integrity of the pipeline should be assessed on a priority basis. This paper presents an integrated risk-based assessment scheme to predict the failure and the failure consequences of offshore crude oil pipelines. To estimate risk, two important quantities have to be determined, the joint probability of failure of the pipeline and its LDS and the consequences of failure. Consequences incorporate the financial losses associated with environmental damage, oil spill cleanup and lost production. The assessment provides an estimate of the risk in monetary value and determines whether the estimated risk exceeds a predefined target risk. Moreover, the critical year for the asset can be determined. In essence, the outcome of the assessment facilitates an informed decision-making about the future of the asset. |
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Keywords: | Leak detection systems Offshore pipelines Risk-based assessment Probability of failure |
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