A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Process Design, Safety and Loss Prevention (CPSL), Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran;2. Safety and Security Science Group, Faculty TBM, TU Delft, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands;3. ARGoSS, Faculty TEW, University of Antwerp, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium;4. Centre for Economics and Corporate Sustainability, KU Leuven, Campus Brussels, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;1. Department of Urology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA;2. Pediatric Urology Research Center, Children''s Hospital Medical Center, Pediatric Center of Excellence, Tehran University of Medical Science, Tehran, Iran;1. Departamento de Mecánica y Construcción, Universitat Jaume I, Castelló, Spain;2. Institut de Recherche en Génie Civil et Mécanique (GeM), Ecole Centrale de Nantes, France;3. Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología del Hormigón (ICITECH), Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain;1. Institute for Advanced Study, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong;2. Physics Department, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong;3. Laboratoire Charles Fabry, Institut Optique Graduate School, CNRS, Universite Paris Sud, France;1. School of Chemical and Process Engineering, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK;2. School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK;3. School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK;4. INERIS, Parc Technologique ALATA, B.P. 2, F-60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte, France |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models. |
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| Keywords: | Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) Probability Possibility estimation Fuzzy algorithm Event tree |
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