| Abstract: | Numerical simulations are used for the systematic exploration of the migration and entrapment of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in heterogeneous formations. Ensembles of realizations of random, spatially correlated permeability fields are generated and employed in model simulations of a spill event. Statistical techniques are then used to quantify the sensitivity of model predictions to input parameters, thereby identifying the parameters or processes that may be of primary importance in the determination of organic liquid distributions in heterogeneous systems. Results of the study indicate that the most critical factors in modeling organic entrapment include the spill release rate, reliable estimates of the mean, variance, and vertical correlation scale of the formation permeability, and an accurate representation of the correlation between the capillary pressure–saturation function and the permeability. In contrast, the hydraulic gradient and cross-correlation of residual saturations with permeabilities are found to have only minor influence on organic liquid distributions in such heterogeneous formations. |
