化学工业园的系统动力学仿真与调控

化学工业园属行业类工业园，入区企业主要为生产和销售化学工业品的化工企业，其排放的化学品污染物极易造成水环境和大气环境质量的恶化，为避免环境风险事故，必须对化学工业园的发展过程进行模拟和控制.以泰兴经济开发区为研究对象，在其现阶段发展基础上，根据该园区的实际情况，采用系统动力学(System Dynamics)模拟不同情景下的远期发展目标.基础仿真结果表明，泰兴经济开发区的环境现状不容乐观，尤其是大气环境污染几乎达到环境容量极限.情景分析表明，该开发园区必须将产业发展速度控制在18%，同时降低工业能耗，提高脱硫效率至90%以上，污水处理厂规模日处理量达4.9×104 t，才能保证其持续、稳定、健康的发展. 

Simulation and Adjustment of System Dynamics for a Chemical Industrial Park

Chemical industrial parks,a type of industrial park,mainly consist of chemical enterprises which produce and sell chemical industrial products.Their chemical pollution-containing emissions tend to cause water and air environmental quality degradation.To avoid environmental accidents,it is necessary to simulate and control the whole development process of chemical industrial parks.Using Taixing economic development zone as an example,long-term goals based on the current situation were simulated under different scenarios through applying system dynamics.The base runs tell us that the current environmental quality of the park is far from optimistic,especially the air pollution,which has almost reached the environmental capacity limit.Scenario analysis shows that to maintain sustainable development during the planning period,the development speed should be 18%.Simultaneously,energy consumption should be lowered,desulphurization efficiency should be improved to above 90%,and the capacity of the sewage treatment plants should reach 4.9×104 td.