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A COMPARISON OF MULTIVARIATE AND TREND FORECASTING ESTIMATES WITH ACTUAL WATER USE1
Authors:Bruce Mitchell  Paul H. Leighton
Abstract:ABSTRACT: This paper describes a multivariate water forecasting procedure that is neither complicated, time-consuming nor expensive to operationalize. The forecasting procedure has been used to estimate the water demand for a proposed subdivision in Barrie, Ontario. Reliability is checked by applying the procedure to two existing subdivisions in Barrie for which metered consumption is available. For comparison, a trend forecasting procedure is also applied to the proposed subdivision and the existing subdivisions. Both the multivariate and trend forecasting procedures provide encouragingly accurate results when compared to actual use. While the multivariate procedure allows more precision, both procedures should be useful in forecasting water demand for smaller municipalities.
Keywords:water demand forecasting  multivariate  trend  Barrie  Ontario
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