Temporal displacement of environmental crime: Evidence from marine oil pollution |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, USA;2. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China;1. University of Warwick, UK;2. Newcastle University, UK;1. Resources for the Future, Gothenburg University, FEEM, CESifo Research Network;2. Statistics Norway, CREE and CESifo Research Network;3. Norwegian University of Life Sciences, CREE and CESifo Research Network;1. Michigan State University, 446 West Circle Dr., East Lansing, MI 48824-1039, USA;2. University of California, Davis 1 Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA;3. ETH Zurich, Tannenstrasse 1, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;1. Division of Social Science, Division of Environment, and Department of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong;2. Department of Economics, Ball State University, USA;3. National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China |
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| Abstract: | We provide evidence for temporal displacement of illegal discharges of oil from shipping, a major source of ocean pollution, in response to a monitoring technology that features variation in the probability of conviction by time of day. During the nighttime, evidence collected by Coast Guard aircraft using radar becomes contestable in court because the nature of an identified spot cannot be verified visually by an observer on board of the aircraft. Seasonal variation in time of sunset is used to distinguish evasive behavior from daily routines on board. Using data from surveillance flights above the Dutch part of the North Sea during 1992–2011, we provide evidence for a sudden increase in illegal discharges after sunset across the year. Our results show that even a tiny chance of getting caught and a mild punishment can have a major impact on behavior. |
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| Keywords: | Deterrence Pollution Environmental crime |
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