Does the conservation of land reduce development? An econometric-based landscape simulation with land market feedbacks |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education Pennsylvania State University, 112-F Armsby University Park, PA 16802, USA;2. Department of Applied Economics Oregon State University, 200A Ballard Ext. Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;3. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin – Madison, 427 Lorch St., Madison, WI 53706, USA;1. Centre for New Energy Systems (CNES), Department of Electrical, Electronic, and Computer Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa;2. Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa;3. Advanced Engineering Platform & Department of Electrical and Computer Systems Engineering, School of Engineering, Monash University Malaysia, Bandar Sunway 47500, Malaysia;1. Technische Universität Berlin, Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Straße des 17. Juni 145, D-10623 Berlin, Germany;2. Department of Applied Economics III (Econometrics and Statistics), University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre, 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain;3. Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Institute of Forest Economics, Leuschnerstraße 91, D-21031 Hamburg, Germany;1. Inter-American Development Bank, Strategy Development Division, 1300 New York Avenue N.W., Washington, DC 20577, United States;2. Inter-American Development Bank, Strategy Development Division, 1300 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20577, United States;1. Universidad EAFIT, School of Economics and Finance, Medellín, Colombia;2. The World Bank, Washington DC and School of Economics and Finance, Universidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia;3. Sonoma State University, Department of Economics, Rohnert Park, CA, USA |
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| Abstract: | We use an econometrically-based landscape simulation to investigate the effect of conservation on the net change in local development – the amount of land directly protected from development minus the amount of development that may occur on neighboring unprotected private land in response to conservation. First, we use spatial-panel data from Wisconsin to estimate parcel-level subdivision probabilities and density expectations, controlling for the endogenous location of open space. Second, we use these subdivision probabilities and density expectations in a landscape simulation model. Our simulation results indicate that 57% of conserved open space created between 1978 and 2009 generated close to zero net change in local development. This suggests that conserved open space mostly reallocated development in a small neighborhood (in a half-mile radius) rather than altering the total amount of development. We explore the landscape conditions that may lead to conservation having either a positive or negative effect on local development. |
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| Keywords: | Land use Open-space conservation Wildlife habitat Micro-econometrics Spatial simulation |
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