Optimal monitoring and control under state uncertainty: Application to lionfish management |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Oregon, United States;2. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California, United States;3. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, North Carolina, United States;4. University Fellow, Resources for the Future, Washington DC, United States |
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Abstract: | State variables in many renewable resource management problems, such as the abundance of a fish stock, are imperfectly observed over time. In systems characterized by state uncertainty, decision makers often invest in monitoring to learn about the level of a stock. We develop a stochastic bioeconomic model of marine invasive species management under state uncertainty. The decision maker in our model simultaneously evaluates optimal investment in monitoring and population control. Using a recently-devised method for solving continuous-state Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), we find that the ability to learn through monitoring can alter the role of population control in the optimal policy function, for example by reducing control intensity in favor of monitoring. Optimal monitoring depends on the management context, including in our application lionfish population structure. The rich transient dynamics of our model depend critically on the relationship between the initial conditions for information and invader abundance. |
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Keywords: | Monitoring State uncertainty Bioeconomics Partially observable Markov decision process Invasive species Lionfish |
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