| 基于灰色理论的民航燃油消耗量预测模型及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张燕军,孙有朝.基于灰色理论的民航燃油消耗量预测模型及应用[J].环境工程,2012(Z2):378-380. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张燕军 孙有朝 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学民航学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 民航运输中燃油消耗量的精确预测对能源需求的科学规划和决策具有重要参考价值,针对民航燃油消耗量历史数据少的特点,通过灰色系统建模、关联度分析以及残差辨识,建立了民航燃油消耗量的灰色预测模型,以均方差比值和小误差概率两项评级指标,将预测结果与精度检验等级的对比分析表明灰色预测民航燃油消耗量的拟合精度高,预测结果较为可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 预测模型 民航 燃油消耗量 |
PREDICTING MODEL FOR CIVIL AVIATION FUEL CONSUMPTION BASED ON GREY SYSTEM THEORY AND ITS APPLICATION |
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| Zhang Yanjun Sun Youchao.PREDICTING MODEL FOR CIVIL AVIATION FUEL CONSUMPTION BASED ON GREY SYSTEM THEORY AND ITS APPLICATION[J].Environmental Engineering,2012(Z2):378-380. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Yanjun Sun Youchao |
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| Institution: | Zhang Yanjun Sun Youchao(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China) |
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| Abstract: | Predicting the civil aviation fuel consumption accurately had high reference value for the scientific planning and decision making of the energy needs.For the lack of historical data of the civil aviation fuel consumption,a grey fuel consumption prediction model was built based on grey system modeling and analysis of degree of grey incidence and residual.Contrastive analysis of SVV and SEP with accuracy grade indicated that the gray fuel consumption prediction model was fitting precisely and reliable. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory forecasting model civil aviation fuel consumption |
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