| Abstract: | An analysis of the long-term demands, supplies and costs for phosphorus is employed as an example of ‘worst case’ research. Worst case research attempts to bound the problems posed in The Limits to Growth relating to running out of minerals and other raw materials by studying the costs of obtaining such materials from some vast source such as common rock. Since the costs of extracting minerals from these near infinite sources are as high as they would go for thousands of years, they represent the upper limit or worst case outlook, especially since the estimated costs are based on current technology. Recycling, conservation and other possibilities are also examined. At least in certain cases it may be possible from such research to make clearer judgements about the questions of exhaustion posed by the ’limits to growth’ literature. |
