基于集约评价的城市开发区规模计量研究——以南京市省级以上开发区为例

随着开发区集约利用评价工作的全面开展,合理界定其用地规模成为研究的重点。本文以南京市为例,首先运用多目标决策法评价开发区集约利用等级,然后采用逐步回归法选取与集约利用相关度较大的因素作为预测依据,进而计量其合理的规模。研究结果表明:其一,A、B和C开发区集约等级为II级,可以适当扩大开发区规模;D、E、F和G开发区集约等级为III级,应该维持开发区规模;而H和I开发区集约等级为IV级,应适当缩小开发区规模。其二,当B开发区、A开发区和其他开发区地均工业总产值增长率分别达到23.10%、18.18%和15%时,可以充分发挥土地利用潜力。其三,即使实现土地集约利用,B开发区仍需扩充6.08 km2。最后,本文提出通过科学设定地均工业总产值增长率来提升开发区集约利用水平的政策建议。

Quantitative Research on the Scale of Urban Development Zone Based on Evaluation of Intensive Use:A Case Study in Development Zones above the Province Level in Nanjing

Evaluation of the land intensive use lvas carried out in the development zone, and how to reasonably definc land use scale becomes an important rescarch issue. This article takes Nanjing as an example, and multi-objective decision method is used to evaluate the land intensive use degree. In addition, stepwise regression is used to find the element which has the biggest correlation with the intensive degree,and this element is the basis for forecasting. What's more, suitable method is used to measure what the reasonable land scale is. It is concluded that, firstly, the level of A,B and D development zones is in grade Ⅱ, and this kind of development zones can expand their scale.The level of D,E,F and G development zones is in grade Ⅲ, and this kind of development zones should keep the existing scale. The level of H and I development zone is in grade Ⅳ, This kind of development zones should reduce their scale. Secondly, when the growth rate of gross industrial output value per unit area of B development zone, A development zone and other development zones are 23.10%, 18.18% and 15% respectively, they can give full play to the potential of land use. Thirdly, on the basis of land intensive use, B development zone needs an extra area of 6.08 km~2. In the end, it gives some suggestions to promote the level of land use intensive by setting a scientific growth rate of gross industrial output value per unit area of the development zone.