Climate change impact on distribution and abundance of wildlife species: an analytical approach using GIS

An analytical approach to modelling the likely impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of wildlife species is described using examples from Scotland. Data for present day distribution of wildlife and habitat are analysed using map data describing geographic variation in climatic factors. Climate data for the present day and under specified scenarios of change are themselves modelled within a GIS; climate modelling uses meteorological station data, climate change scenarios developed from GCMs and a variety of spatial interpolation techniques. The analytical procedure generates hypotheses defining ecological relationships between species distribution and climatic factors (monthly, seasonal and annual data). These relationships are then used to model the distribution of the species directly from climate and predict impacts of climate change. The analysis takes account of both direct impacts of climate on wildlife and indirect effects manifested through habitat response to climate change. The analytical procedure is implemented as a generic tool for inductive spatial analysis in GIS.