宁波城市基础设施现代化水平综合评价与预测

从道路交通、给水能源、信息通讯、环境卫生和排水排污5个方面构建了宁波市城市基础设施现代化评价指标体系，在此基础上选取1997~2003年有关统计数据对宁波城市基础设施现代化水平进行了定量评价，结合宁波市城市建设实际，分析了宁波城市基础设施现代化建设中的主要建设绩效和存在的问题，利用灰色系统预测模型，对宁波市城市基础设施现代化发展水平进行预测。结果表明：近期2005年宁波市城市基础设施现代化综合指数将达到83.8%，初具现代化城市基础设施建设的雏形；中期2010年，城市基础设施现代化综合指数将达到95.0%，具有较高的建设水平，但城市基础设施现代化建设任务仍较艰巨。提出4点加快宁波市城市基础设施现代化建设的对策建议。

COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION AND PREDICTION ON THE INFRASTRUCTURE MODERNIZATION LEVEL OF NINGBO CITY

The article establishes an index system to evaluate the infrastructure modernization level of Ningbo City, with consideration to the following five specific aspects traffic, energy and water supply, info telecommunications, environmental sanitation and drainage system. All the data involved were obtained during the period from 1997 to 2003, selected to make quantitative evaluation on the current infrastructure modernization of Ningbo City. In terms of the actual construction of the city, this article also reveals what has already been achieved and what still needs to be improved in the city′s infrastructure modernization.Then based on the application of the gray systematic prediction model, the authors make a prediction on the process of the infrastructure modernization of Ningbo City and the result indicates that in 2005, Ningbo City will have taken on a rudimentary form of a modernized city with its comprehensive index of infrastructure modernization reaching the percentage of 83.8, and in the intermediate year 2010, Ningbo City will have attained a rather high modernization level with its comprehensive index reaching the high percentage of 95.0, but there will still be a distance to go before Ningbo City basically realizes its infrastructure modernization. The article lastly makes four suggestions on how to promote the modernization of infrastructure construction of Ningbo City.