基于MATLAB的灰色预测系统及其对抽采瓦斯钻孔流量的数值模拟

研究钻孔瓦斯流量的变化及其变化趋势对抽采煤层瓦斯涌出量及钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度等参量的判定具有较大的实用价值。笔者将煤层抽采瓦斯钻孔看作一个灰色系统,利用灰色系统理论,以原始时间序列数据为基础,建立抽采瓦斯钻孔流量的模拟和预测GM(1,1)模型。针对数值模拟中大量的矩阵计算,利用MATLAB软件编制高效的计算机程序,实现了对抽采瓦斯钻孔流量的模拟和预测。为了检验模型模拟和预测结果的精度,选择了合理的误差检验模型。通过工程实例证明了GM(1,1)模型可信度较高,关联度较好,均方差比值为一级,拟合优度高。对瓦斯抽采设计和矿井安全生产具有一定的指导意义。

Grey Prediction System Based on MATLAB and Its Numerical Simulation of Gas Flow from Drainage Borehole

Research on change and trend of gas flow is of great practical value to the gas emission from drainage coal seam and the determination of initial velocity of gas emission from the borehole. This paper regards the drainage borehole in the coal seam as a grey system and establishes a simulation and prediction model of GM(1,1) for drainage gas flow based on the primordial data with grey system theory. Seeing that there is a lot of matrix calculation in the numerical simulation, an effective computer program compiled by MATLAB(Matrix Laboratory)software is used to fulfill this calculation of gas flow from the drainage borehole. Some reasonable error test models are used to test the precision of the model. An engineering example shows that the result is comparatively reliable; the degree of correlation is comparatively good, the mean square deviation ratio is first level and the fitting is highly accurate. The research result is of great importance to direct gas drainage design and mine safety.