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Forest ecosystems of the volga basin under conditions of global climate warming: Local ecological prediction
Authors:E. G. Kolomyts
Affiliation:(1) Institute of Ecology of the Volga Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Komzina 10, Tolyatti, 445003, Russia
Abstract:Prediction based on one of the latest extreme prognostic models, the Hadley Centre Model HadCM3 (version A2) has been performed using an original method of discrete empirical statistical modeling of ecosystems. Probabilistic scenarios of the expected changes in summer soil moisture content until the mid-22nd century and corresponding structural and functional changes in forest ecosystems for different zonal/regional conditions of the Volga basin are described.
Keywords:ecosystem  biogeocenosis  climatic changes  empirical statistical modeling  landscape-ecological prediction
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