Forest ecosystems of the volga basin under conditions of global climate warming: Local ecological prediction |
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Authors: | E. G. Kolomyts |
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Affiliation: | (1) Institute of Ecology of the Volga Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Komzina 10, Tolyatti, 445003, Russia |
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Abstract: | Prediction based on one of the latest extreme prognostic models, the Hadley Centre Model HadCM3 (version A2) has been performed using an original method of discrete empirical statistical modeling of ecosystems. Probabilistic scenarios of the expected changes in summer soil moisture content until the mid-22nd century and corresponding structural and functional changes in forest ecosystems for different zonal/regional conditions of the Volga basin are described. |
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Keywords: | ecosystem biogeocenosis climatic changes empirical statistical modeling landscape-ecological prediction |
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