闽东南地区城镇化与生态系统服务的时空耦合分析

揭示城镇化与生态系统服务的时空耦合关系,有助于厘清地域发展差异,优化城镇化实施路径及改善生态系统服务质量. 以闽东南地区为例,在分析2000~2020年城镇化多维系统与典型生态系统服务演变特征的基础上,采用皮尔逊相关系数和耦合协调度模型探索二者的时空耦合状态及趋势,提出区域协调发展改善建议. 结果表明：①闽东南地区综合城镇化水平持续提升,年均增幅7.3%,近94%的区域已步入中高发展阶段；生态系统服务趋于衰退,尤以粮食供给和水源供给服务最为显著,分别下降61.9%和46.9%. 二者空间分布呈现东南沿海“高城镇化水平-弱生态系统服务”与西北内陆“低城镇化水平-强生态系统服务”的错位格局. ②城镇化与生态系统服务相关性以负向为主,较之人口和空间城镇化,经济和社会城镇化对生态系统服务的负向效应较弱且进一步弱化趋势明显. 伴随人口和空间城镇化大幅降速及经济和社会城镇化进程加快,城镇化发展动力逐渐由增“量”转为提“质”,生态系统服务衰退得到缓解. ③综合城镇化与各项生态系统服务经历“失衡-过渡-调和”这3个阶段,耦合协调度平均增幅60.5%~120.6%,但高度协调区域依然匮乏,仍存在较大提升空间. 二者相对关系从城镇化滞后向生态系统服务滞后演变,城镇化过度超前而导致耦合协调等级倒退的波动性问题在东南沿海地区初步显现. 因此,在未来建设中闽东南地区须重视经济质量与社会效益的提高,强化生态空间统筹管理与保护修复,增强城镇化与生态系统服务协调发展的有序性与稳定性.

Spatiotemporal Coupling Analysis of Urbanization and Ecosystem Services in Southeastern Fujian

Revealing the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services can help to clarify regional development differences, optimize the implementation path of urbanization, and improve the quality of ecosystem services. Taking southeastern Fujian, a region with a good ecological foundation and strong urbanization potential, as a case study, the levels of multidimensional urbanization systems and typical ecosystem services of this region in the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 were quantified using the index comprehensive evaluation method and the InVEST model. The Pearson correlation coefficient and the coupling coordination degree model were used to analyze the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services, and suggestions for improving regional coordinated development were proposed. The results showed that： ① The comprehensive urbanization level in southeastern Fujian increased continuously, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3%, of which social urbanization was the fastest, followed by economic urbanization and population urbanization, and spatial urbanization was relatively backward. Ecosystem services tended to decline, especially food and water provision services, which decreased by 61.9% and 46.9%, respectively. The spatial distribution showed a mismatch pattern of “high urbanization level and weak ecosystem services” in the southeast coastal area and “low urbanization level and strong ecosystem services” in the northwest inland area. ② The correlation between urbanization and ecosystem services was mainly negative. The negative effect of economic and social urbanization on ecosystem services was weaker than that of population and spatial urbanization, with a clear weakening tendency. As population and spatial urbanization slowed down sharply and economic and social urbanization accelerated, the driving force of urbanization development gradually shifted from “quantitative increase” to “qualitative improvement.” Thus, the decline of ecosystem services was alleviated. ③ Comprehensive urbanization and various ecosystem services experienced three stages of “imbalance-transition-reconciliation,” with an average increase of 60.5% to 120.6% in the coupling coordination degree. However, highly coordinated regions remained scarce, indicating that there is still significant room for improvement. The relative relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services evolved from urbanization lag to ecosystem services lag. The fluctuation problem of backward coupling coordination level caused by excessive urbanization had initially appeared in the southeastern coastal area. Therefore, in future construction, southeastern Fujian should improve economic quality and social benefits； strengthen the overall management, protection, and restoration of ecological space； and enhance the order and stability of the coordinated development of urbanization and ecosystem services.