2000~2020年辽宁省生态系统服务评估与多情景预测

生态系统服务评估和预测在可持续地区发展和资源管理中扮演着关键角色. 辽宁省作为中国东北地区的一个典型代表,在面临着城市化、工业化和农业现代化等快速发展的挑战同时,也迫切需要更深入地了解其生态系统的演化趋势以及对生态系统服务的影响. 以辽宁省2000~2020年土地利用变化情况为基础,利用InVEST-Markov-PLUS模型对辽宁省过去-未来的生态系统服务评估及多情景预测等开展了模拟研究,为更好地促进生态系统服务,推动辽宁省高质量均衡发展提供科学可靠的建议. 结果发现：①2000~2020 年,辽宁省碳储量和土壤保持量总体呈升高趋势,产水量呈现先降后升再降的波动降低态势. ②辽宁省碳储量和土壤保持量呈现出东部山区和西部丘陵高,中部较低的趋势,产水量呈现出从东到西递减的趋势. ③生态系统服务价值从5479.44亿元上升到5655.26亿元,总计上升了175.82亿元,且4种服务在研究时期内均有上升,文化服务变化最快. ④2030年,辽宁省碳储量和土壤保持总量除生态保护情景外均有所下降,产水量除耕地保护情景有所上升,其他3种情景下均有所下降,研究区生态系统服务价值除经济优先情景外均有所上升.

Ecosystem Services Assessment and Multi-Scenario Prediction in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020

Ecosystem service assessment and prediction play a crucial role in sustainable regional development and resource management. Liaoning Province, as a typical representative of Northeast China, faces rapid development challenges such as urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural modernization. At the same time, there is an urgent need for a deeper understanding of the evolution trends of its ecosystems and their impact on ecosystem services. This study employed the InVEST-Markov-PLUS model to conduct simulated research on the assessment of past and future ecosystem services and multi-scenario predictions in Liaoning Province. Based on the land-use changes in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020, the InVEST model was used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations in carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in the ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the equivalent factor method was employed to calculate the value of ecosystem services in Liaoning Province during the same period. Furthermore, by integrating the PLUS and Markov models with the actual conditions of Liaoning Province, four land-use development scenarios for 2030 were constructed, including natural development, economic priority, ecological protection, and cropland protection. The land-use distribution and the quantities and values of ecosystem services under these scenarios were simulated. The study revealed the following findings： ① From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province showed an overall increasing trend, whereas water yield exhibited a fluctuating decrease trend initially, followed by an increase and then another decrease. ② Carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province showed higher values in the eastern mountainous areas and western hilly regions, with lower values in the central region. Water yield showed a decreasing trend from east to west. ③ The value of ecosystem services increased from 547.94 billion yuan to 565.53 billion yuan, with a total increase of 17.58 billion yuan during the study period. All four types of services showed an increase, with cultural services experiencing the fastest change. ④ In 2030, carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province decreased in all scenarios except for in the ecological protection scenario. Water yield increased only in the cropland protection scenario, whereas it decreased in the other three scenarios. The value of ecosystem services in the study area increased in all scenarios except for in the economic priority scenario.