| 事故预测数学模型的研究与实践 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾晓叶,于殿宝,朱玉生.事故预测数学模型的研究与实践[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾晓叶 于殿宝 朱玉生 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 徐州建筑职业技术学院继续教育学院,徐州,221116
2. 徐州建筑职业技术学院安全工程与技术应用研究所,徐州,221116 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据收集统计的、真实可靠的事故数据,运用数学方法及建立的多种事故预测模型,在工作中理论与实际相结合,提出并建立了事故预测数学模型,给出具体方法与步骤,以及应用中应遵循的原则和规律,从而做到对将来发生的事故未卜先知,用以指导安全生产活动,预防事故发生。同时,根据我国近18年来各类事故死亡人员的数据建立事故预测数学模型,并运用确立的最佳事故预测数学模型而预测出的事故数据,探讨我国伤亡事故发生的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 事故预测 数学模型 数据 研究 应用 |
Research and Practice of Accident Prediction Mathematical Models |
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| GU Xiao-ye,YU Dian-bao,ZHU Yu-sheng.Research and Practice of Accident Prediction Mathematical Models[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(12). |
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| Authors: | GU Xiao-ye YU Dian-bao ZHU Yu-sheng |
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| Abstract: | Based on the real and reliable accident data collected statistically, related mathematical methods and accident prediction models, an accident prediction mathematical model is proposed and built. Meanwhile, the concrete method and steps, and the principles and rules followed during application are given. Based on the casualty data of various types of accidents in recent 18 years, an accident prediction mathematical model is established, and the related accident data in the future is predicted. Finally, the accident trend in China is discussed according to the predication data. |
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| Keywords: | accident prediction mathematical models data research application |
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