基于状态监测的井喷风险动态安全评价

井喷是钻井作业引发的最严重事故之一.通过分析钻井作业过程各个环节,确定钻井过程的风险因素和指标因素,实时监测钻井作业各参数变化,利用模糊综合层次评价法计算出钻井过程井喷风险概率,实现井喷事故动态风险评价.给出了模糊综合评价法的具体步骤,基于该方法还开发了井喷动态安全评价软件,为钻井过程中钻井液参数和钻井工程参数的优选、调整提供理论依据,同时也为钻井过程的安全生产和管理提供了参考依据.

Novel dynamic hazards assessment model for well blowout based on its operating state monitoring

Through deep investigation of the underlying mechanism of the drilling process, this paper is inclined to present all the likely haphazard factors and the index factors of drilling process and their characteristic features of being highly diversified and even unpredictable . As is known, traditional methods of probabilistic hazard assessment are statistic and qualitative by nature, which fail to satisfy the demands for safety standards under new conditions. Based on the monitoring variety of the drilling fluid parameters, we have adopted a comprehensive fuzzy hierarchy assessment model by way of real time hazard probability assessment for well blowout. With the new model, five steps have been introduced in detail, including the step for setting up the hazard index system, the step for determining the index weight, the step to make qualitative and quantitative assessment of hazard index, that for comprehensive fuzzy assessment of the hazard probability of well blowout and that for modifying the hazard index and parameters. A hazard assessment software has developed based on the method mentioned above. Further more, a software has been developed based on Visual Basic 6, whose function has been given a brief introduction. The said software will enable its users gain quantitative results of hazard probabilities, though precautions should be taken to remind the operators to take proper safety measures correspondingly. Thus, it can be said that the model helps to lay out a scientific basis not only for optimization and adjustment of drilling fluid parameters and drilling engineering parameters, but also for the safety production and management in drilling process.