区域环境承载力研究方法初探

 明确了区域环境承载力的概念，研究对象和研究内容；分析了区域环境承载力与区域环境容量和区域环境规划的区别和联系，提出建立区域环境承载力指标体系的一般原则和指标体系的一般内容；并且建立了各项指标的灰色关联度模型及各项指标变化的灰色预测模型；按照这套理论方法，对上海市浦东新区区域环境承载力进行分析研究，得到新区5个开发小区的区域环境承载力的量值，从而掌握了5个小区的开发程度，为新区经济、社会、文化活动规模的控制及环境保护提供了指导依据。

The primary exploring of the research method of AESC

The research of AESC(area environmental sustaining capacity)which is the funda mental theory of environmental science is still in the probing period,In this report,the authors define hte concept,the objective and the contents of AESC,then analyse the relation of the AESC with the AEP(area environmental plan)and the difference between AESC and AELC(area environmental loading capacity).They not only put forward the principles of setting up the indexes system and the indexes contents of AESC,but also advance the grey connection degree model and the grey prediction model of the indexes and put forward the concept and calculating model of AESCSD(area environmental sustaining capacity saturation degree).At last,authors adopt this theory to analyse AESC of five developed areas of pudong New Area and advance the planning suggestion of developinng socioeconomy and culture of pudong New Area according the research conclusion.