不同控制指标下的大气PM_(10)浓度对人群的健康影响——以2006年珠江三角洲地区为例

根据珠江三角洲地区16个典型站点2006年监测的PM10浓度数据,以珠江三角洲地区人群2006年PM10暴露浓度作为基准,采用泊松回归模型和寿命表方法,评价PM10浓度对人群健康影响.该区2006年PM10年均浓度达到73μg/m3,若所有监测城市PM10浓度达到国家二级标准(100μg/m3),成人(≥30岁)可避免死亡人数为2300人,人群平均期望寿命延长0.13a.当PM10年均浓度达到WHO推荐过渡指标值(70,50,30μg/m3)及指导值(20μg/m3)后,成人可避免死亡人数分别为8700,19700,32600,38500人;人群平均期望寿命分别延长0.47,1.1,1.9,2.3a.

Impact on human health due to different PM_(10) controlling targets in Pearl River Delta in 2006

Concentration of PM_(10) was measured at 16 typical sites in Pearl River Delta in 2006. Both Poisson regression model and life table method were used to calculate the health benefits due to controlling PM_(10) concentration in Pearl River Dell. The annual mean concentration of PM_(10) was found to reach 73μg/m~3. For adults (older than 30), the avoidable deaths would be 2300 person and the life expectancy of residents would prolong 0.13 year, if the annual mean PM_(10) concentration reduced to the national air quality specification Level Ⅱ of PM_(10). If the PM_(10) controlling targets recommended by WHO could be reached, the avoidable deaths would be 8700 person (70μg/m~3), 19700 person (50μg/m~3), 32600 person (30μg/m~3) and 38500 person (20μg/m~3), respectively, and life expectancy of residents would prolong 0.47 year (70μg/m~3), 1.1 years (50μg/m~3), 1.9 years (30μg/m~3) and 2.3 years (20μg/m~3).