太湖水环境演变与流域经济发展关系及趋势

运用多元线性回归分析，定量研究了1990~2000年太湖水环境演变与流域内社会经济发展之间的关系，并根据此相关关系对未来30年太湖水质的污染状况进行了预测。根据研究成果推断：太湖地区的污染物来源在未来30年内可能将发生较大变化，农业及生活污水所占的比重可能会持续增加，并成为主要的污染来源。因此，建议在开展针对工业点源污染而采取的达标排放的同时，还必须加强农业面源污染的治理力度，“点源与面源相结合”，以利于太湖水环境的有效改善。

CHANGE OF WATER ENVIRONMENT AND ITS FUTURE IN TAIHU LAKE IN RELATION WITH ECOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS LAKE BASIN

Using multi-linear regression analysis, the authors examined the relationship quantitatively between the change of water environmental and economy development during the period from 1990 to 2000 in Taihu Basin was examined, and based on the information the authors predicted the water pollution status in the lake for the next 30 years. Combined with other studies, the authors considered that the source of contamination in Taihu Basin would possibly change in the future. The proportion of sewage from agriculture and industry would increase continually, being the primary pollution source. Therefore, in order to ameliorate the water environment of Taihu Lake, the management to non-point pollution from agriculture must be intensified, except for the enforcement of some minimum requirement about point-pollution discharge from industry. HJ1] HJ]