A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone through space and time |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201, USA;2. Department of Statistics, Harvard University, 1 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA;3. The Ohio State University, Department of Statistics, 404 Cockins Hall, 1958 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210-1247, USA;1. Institute for Neuroscience and Muscle Research, The Children''s Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, Australia;2. Brain Dynamics Centre, Westmead Institute for Medical Research and University of Sydney Medical School, Sydney, Australia;3. Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia;4. The Children''s Hospital Education Research Institute, The Children''s Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, Australia;1. Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia;2. Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia;1. Department of Neurology and Psychiatry (Parkinson''s Centre), University “Sapienza”, Rome, Italy;2. I.R.C.C.S. Santa Lucia Foundation, Rome, Italy;3. Research Centre of Social Diseases (CIMS), University “Sapienza”, Rome, Italy;1. Service de Neurologie et Pathologie du mouvement, Hôpital Roger Salengro, CHRU de Lille, Lille, France;2. U1171, Université Lille, Lille, France;3. Service de Pharmacologie médicale, Faculté de Médecine Lille, CHRU de Lille, Lille, France;4. Service de Neuroradiologie clinique, Hôpital Roger Salengro, CHRU de Lille, Lille, France;5. Service de Médecine Nucléaire, Hôpital Roger Salengro, CHRU de Lille, Lille, France;6. Service de Biostatistiques de santé publique, CHRU de Lille, Lille, France;7. Service de Médecine Nucléaire, Centre Eugène Marquis, Rennes, France;1. Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Messina, Messina, Italy;2. Sobell Department of Motor Neuroscience and Movement Disorders, Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, United Kingdom;3. Department of Neurology and Parkinson Centre Nijmegen, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, The Netherlands;4. Department of Neurology, Catholic University of Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy;5. Movement Disorders Center, Toronto Western Hospital, UHN, Division of Neurology, University of Toronto, 399 Bathurst St, 7 Mc412, Toronto, Ontario M5T 2S8, Canada;1. Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, No. 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing 210029, China;2. Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, No. 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing 210029, China |
| |
| Abstract: | A Bayesian hierarchical regime switching model describing the spatial–temporal behavior of ozone (O3) within a domain covering Lake Michigan during spring–summer 1999 is developed. The model incorporates linkages between ozone and meteorology. It is specifically formulated to identify meteorological regimes conducive of high ozone levels and allow ozone behavior during these periods to be different from typical ozone behavior. The model is used to estimate or forecast spatial fields of O3 conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed and direction. The model is successful at forecasting the onset of periods of high ozone levels, but more work is needed to also accurately identify departures from these periods. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
