| 中国与东盟贸易的环境效应及其关键社会经济因子影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 花瑞祥,蓝艳.中国与东盟贸易的环境效应及其关键社会经济因子影响分析[J].环境科学研究,2020,33(9):2210-2218. |
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| 作者姓名： | 花瑞祥 蓝艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 生态环境部对外合作与交流中心, 北京 100035 |
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| 基金项目： | 生态环境部财政项目（No.2110199） |
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| 摘 要： | 为识别和量化国际贸易的环境效应，推动绿色“一带一路”建设，基于环境经济投入产出模型，利用贸易和污染物排放强度数据，核算了中国与东盟进出口贸易中包含的环境成本，并利用冗余分析探索了影响环境成本的主要社会经济因子.结果表明:①2010年中国与东盟的贸易期间，中国在工业废气、烟尘、二氧化硫、固体废物的排放上存在污染逆差，分别为3 600×108 m3、3.8×104 t、19.7×104 t和9.8×104 t；但在工业废水和粉尘的排放上存在顺差，分别为5 400×104和1.1×104 t.②重度污染产业贸易均呈污染顺差，中度污染产业贸易的污染逆差最大，轻度污染产业贸易呈现较小的污染顺差.③中国与东盟中低收入国家的贸易造成污染顺差，而与中高收入国家的贸易则实现了污染逆差.④冗余分析结果显示，影响我国进口贸易中环境成本的主要因子为城市化率和工业产值占GDP比重，说明我国从东盟发达的工业国进口了含大量环境成本的工业品，而影响我国出口贸易中环境成本的主要因子为出口额，表明我国向欠发达国家出口了大量的初级工业品.因此，我国应加强技术创新，提高污染排放标准，减少重度污染产业的污染排放强度，同时优化出口结构，避免成为“污染避难所”.
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| 关 键 词： | 绿色“一带一路” 东盟 环境效应 环境经济投入产出模型 冗余分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/5/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/1/1 0:00:00 |
Environmental Effect of Free Trade between China and ASEAN and Impact Analysis of Key Socio-Economic Factors |
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| HUA Ruixiang,LAN Yan.Environmental Effect of Free Trade between China and ASEAN and Impact Analysis of Key Socio-Economic Factors[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2020,33(9):2210-2218. |
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| Authors: | HUA Ruixiang LAN Yan |
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| Affiliation: | Foreign Environmental Cooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100035, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to identify and quantify the environmental effects of international trade and promote the construction of the Green Belt and Road, we calculated the environmental costs of the trade between China and ASEAN based on the input-output model of environmental economics, trade and pollutant emission intensity data from China-ASEAN yearbook, China statistical yearbook, World Bank and ASEAN yearbook. Moreover, we also identified the impact of socio-economic trade factors on environmental costs through redundancy analysis (RDA). The results showed that: (1) In 2010, the trade between China and ASEAN resulted in a pollution deficit in the discharge of industrial waste gas, fumes, sulfur dioxide, and solid waste, which decreased by 3600×108 m3, 3.8×104 t, 19.7×104 t, 9.8×104 t, respectively. However, there was a surplus in the discharge of industrial wastewater and dust, which was 5 400×104 and 1.1×104 t, respectively. (2) The environmental effect of trade in heavily polluting industries was positive for China and the manufactured goods were the largest contributors. However, most severe environmental costs appeared in the trade in moderately polluting industries, and moderately environmental costs were observed in trade related to lightly polluting industries. (3) China's trade with the low-income countries in ASEAN had negative effects on environment protection in China; on the contrary, trade with the middle- and high-income countries was beneficial to China's environment. (3) The main factor affecting the environmental cost of China's import trade was the urbanization rate and the share of industrial output value in GDP, and China's export trade was export volume. It was suggested that China imported industrial products with large environmental costs from the developed countries in ASEAN, while exported a large number of primary industrial products to underdeveloped countries. This research shows that China should strengthen technological innovation and improve pollution emission standards, reduce the intensity of pollution emissions in heavily polluting industries, and optimize export structure to avoid becoming a 'pollution haven'. |
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| Keywords: | Green Belt and Road ASEAN environmental effect input-output model of environmental economics redundancy analysis |
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