Control strategies for vehicular NOx emissions in Guangzhou, China

Guangzhou is a city in southern China that has experienced very rapid economic development in recent years. The city's air has very high concentrations of various pollutants, including sulphur dioxide (SO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), ozone (O₃) and particulate. This paper reviews the changes in air quality in the city over the past 15 years, and notes that a serious vehicular-related emissions problem has been superimposed on the traditional coal-burning problem evident in most Chinese cities. As NOx concentrations have increased, oxidants and photochemical smog now interact with the traditional SO₂ and particulate pollutants, leading to increased health risks and other environmental concerns.
Any responsible NOx control strategy for the city must include vehicle emission control measures. This paper reviews control strategies designed to abate vehicle emissions to fulfill the city's air quality improvement target in 2010. A cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that, while NOx emission control is expensive, vehicular emission standards could achieve a relatively sizable emissions reduction at reasonable cost. To achieve the 2010 air quality target of NOx, advanced implementation of EURO3 standards is recommended, substituting for the EURO2 currently envisioned in the national regulations. Related technical options, including fuel quality improvements and inspection/maintenance (I/M) upgrades (ASM or IM240), are assessed as well.     

在碳中和愿景下缩小贫富差距：协同理论、机制与路径

在向着全面建成社会主义现代化强国的第二个百年目标迈进的征程中,我国同时面临碳中和与缩小贫富差距等多项战略任务。尽管这些战略任务都属于可持续发展的内在要求,实现路径互联互通,政策效果相互影响,但由于分属不同的子系统,容易陷入管理实践各自为政、政策实施互为掣肘的僵局。收入提高的中低收入群体可能因为消费升级产生更多的碳排放,增加实现碳中和的挑战;碳中和实现路径也可能通过影响居民就业或家庭收支促进或阻碍迈向共同富裕的步伐。充分认识碳中和与缩小贫富差距之间的协同与权衡关系,通过整体协调和系统谋划下好"全国一盘棋",减少政策冲突和实践失误,是全方位落实可持续发展、处理好减排与发展关系的前提条件。通过对碳中和与缩小贫富差距协同治理的理论逻辑、影响机制和实践路径进行系统剖析与深入诠释,力求回答"是什么""为什么""怎么做"的问题,为促进碳中和与经济平等的路径选择及方案制定提供决策支持,对社会经济复杂系统下多个可持续发展目标之间的协同合作提供参考借鉴。     

大气环境约束下的中国煤炭消费总量控制研究

煤炭消费过程中排放的大气污染物已成为我国大气污染的重要来源。本文采用WRF-CAMx 空气质量模型定量分析了煤炭消费- 污染物排放- 空气质量之间的影响关系,基于情景分析方法,研究了2020 年、2030年空气质量改善需求对地区大气污染物排放总量与煤炭消费总量的约束作用。在此基础上,结合重点地区行业发展与能源供需等因素,提出各省煤炭消费总量控制目标与控煤对策建议。研究结果表明,要实现2020 年、2030 年空气质量改善阶段性目标,全国煤炭消费总量应分别控制在40.8 亿吨和37.7 亿吨左右,京津冀鲁豫等11 个重点省份2020 年煤炭消费量应控制在15.8 亿吨、2030 年控制在13.1 亿吨,全国煤炭清洁化利用水平需要在当前基础上大幅度提升。     

RESEARCH: Optimizing the Mix of Strategies for Control of Vehicular Emissions

/ A number of strategies for the control of vehicular emissions are being considered by the Philippine government to address Metropolitan Manila's air quality problem. An analytical tool is needed for optimizing criteria pollutant reductions given the budgetary constraints. The simplest approach is to take costs and pollutant removals to be linear with each strategy's scale of activity, and this is readily solved as a linear programming problem. Another approach is to use a dynamic system of weights which shift with progressive improvements in pollutant emissions. The two approaches yield somewhat different results, suggesting the sensitivity of the solution to the assumed weights. The study also illustrates the importance of a sound methodology for evaluating priorities given to different air quality goals. One such methodology may involve a polling of expert panels and the public to gain insight into the relative importance given to competing emissions reduction goals. An informal polling of resource agency staff was conducted and discussed in this paper. The authors take the position that proper planning involves tracing intermediate steps to the final outcome and not just focusing on the latter.KEY WORDS: Vehicular emissions; Urban air quality; Emissions control; Optimization; Manila; Environmental systems analysis     

A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for air quality management under uncertainty

A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming (TIJP) method is developed for planning a regional air quality management system with multiple pollutants and multiple sources. The TIJP method incorporates the techniques of two-stage stochastic programming, joint-probabilistic constraint programming and interval mathematical programming, where uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values can be addressed. Moreover, it can not only examine the risk of violating joint-probability constraints, but also account for economic penalties as corrective measures against any infeasibility. The developed TIJP method is applied to a case study of a regional air pollution control problem, where the air quality index (AQI) is introduced for evaluation of the integrated air quality management system associated with multiple pollutants. The joint-probability exists in the environmental constraints for AQI, such that individual probabilistic constraints for each pollutant can be efficiently incorporated within the TIJP model. The results indicate that useful solutions for air quality management practices have been generated; they can help decision makers to identify desired pollution abatement strategies with minimized system cost and maximized environmental efficiency.     

Quantifying the human health benefits of curbing air pollution in Shanghai

Urban development in the mega-cities of Asia has caused detrimental effects on the human health of its inhabitants through air pollution. However, averting these health damages by investing in clean energy and industrial technologies and measures can be expensive. Many cities do not have the capital to make such investments or may prefer to invest that capital elsewhere. In this article, we examine the city of Shanghai, China, and perform an illustrative cost/benefit analysis of air pollution control. Between 1995 and 2020 we expect that Shanghai will continue to grow rapidly. Increased demands for energy will cause increased use of fossil fuels and increased emissions of air pollutants. In this work, we examine emissions of particles smaller than 10 microm in diameter (PM10), which have been associated with inhalation health effects. We hypothesize the establishment of a new technology strategy for coal-fired power generation after 2010 and a new industrial coal-use policy. The health benefits of pollution reduction are compared with the investment costs for the new strategies. The study shows that the benefit-to-cost ratio is in the range of 1-5 for the power-sector initiative and 2-15 for the industrial-sector initiative. Thus, there appear to be considerable net benefits for these strategies, which could be very large depending on the valuation of health effects in China today and in the future. This study therefore provides economic grounds for supporting investments in air pollution control in developing cities like Shanghai.     

论长江经济带大气污染防治的若干问题与防治对策

长江经济带是世界上最大的内河产业带和制造业基地,建设长江经济带是新时期中国三大国家发展战略之一,积极、有效地保护长江经济带生态环境具有非常重要的战略意义。本研究从识别突出的大气污染防治问题入手,深入分析大气污染的主要驱动力产业与能源结构,以问题为靶向,提出长江经济带的大气污染防治策略。研究结果发现,占国土面积21%的长江经济带排放了全国34%的二氧化硫、32%的氮氧化物、28%的烟粉尘、44%的挥发性有机物、43%的氨,单位面积污染物排放强度是全国平均水平的1.3~2.1倍,污染物排放远超环境容量。长江经济带126个城市中,6项主要大气污染物年平均浓度全部达标的城市比例不到1/3。颗粒物是影响城市达标的主要污染物。长江经济带产业结构偏重和能源消费以煤为主,是造成大气污染排放量的主要源头,是大气污染的主要驱动力。以解决突出的大气环境问题为核心,将环境质量作为大气污染防治的底线,持续推进空气质量改善,重点措施上,从大气污染驱动力着手,提出优化产业与能源结构、深化多污染物协同控制、推进区域联防联控等大气污染防治对策建议。     

德国可再生能源开发与利用现状及促进措施

德国可再生能源开发与利用在法律制度上形成了联邦法规促进体系,德国政府就可再生能源发展出台了融资、科研支持等一系列促进措施,可再生能源技术的发展和应用以较快的速度实现了市场化和商业化,并以此促进实现温室气体减排、促进经济增长、增加就业和促进关联高技术产业发展。德国近年来已实施的可再生能源发展政策环境、措施和经验值得我们借鉴。     

Total waste-load control and allocation based on input-output analysis for Shenzhen, south China

The general objective for this paper is to reveal the dynamic relationships between the rapid economic development, water pollution and the subsequent waste-load allocation in different economic sectors through a case-study in Shenzhen City, South China. Two-objective analysis model was employed based on the input-output table for Shenzhen with the full consideration of various constraints in local area. The improved Tchebycheff procedure was used for obtaining the solutions. The predictions were made on economic development and pollutants from wastewater in different sectors and different planning years. The present study allows for the consideration of the economic structural adjustment. It is found that the current situation of economic structure is generally good and is subject to further adjustment in Shenzhen, although it has undergone the rapid development in the past 18 years. When the maximum Gross Domestic Production and the minimum Chemical Oxygen Demand are chosen as the two objectives subject to other constraints, the harmonized results indicated a scheme that claims substantial reduction of polluting effluences in Shenzhen while closely keeping the economic growth rate as planned.     

Exploring policy strategies for mitigating HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning

The growing demand for cooling throughout the world, possibly increased by global climate change, requires the implementation of policies to mitigate the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and refrigerant use in the refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC) sector. This article aims to contribute to the discussion on strategies to reduce HFC emissions from RAC by looking at their different temporal effects, caused by stock-flow dynamics. From scenario modeling, we find that containment strategies are often most effective in reducing HFC emissions in the short run, whereas phase out strategies have more potential in the long run. Further findings suggest that early and quick implementation of phase out strategies could lead to important reductions in cumulative HFC emissions, because stock build up is prevented. This timing effect is less pronounced for containment strategies. Lastly, emissions from disposal, if unabated, can lead to equally large emissions annually as those from use. Preference for several short-term benefits of containment strategies might lead to sub optimal emission reduction strategies, endangering long term GHG emission reduction.     

Towards sustainable urban environments: the potential for least‐cost planning approaches

The debate about the development of local environmental policies in European cities has failed to consider the role of least‐cost planning. LCP techniques could be applied to the management of energy, water, waste and transport networks to minimize adverse economic and environmental implications while maximizing the socio‐economic benefits of different management strategies.     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

A human ecological assessment of air quality management: A convergence in economic and ecological thinking?

Traditional air pollution management practices are examined using the human ecological framework adopted by Boyden and others (1981) in their study of Hong Kong—the biohistorical or biosocial approach. The subsequent analysis of current air quality management practices assesses their effectiveness in protecting the overall health of both humans and the natural environment. The uncertainties inherent in air pollution management practices which emerge highlight the need to reduce emissions rather than rely on scientific knowledge to define clean air. The assessment also clearly defines roles for research in various areas such as atmospheric models, health effects, and environmental damage. The final recommendations emphasize the need for the introduction of such incentives to reduce emissions as economic instruments and warn against using health information to define clean air. Health and environmental damage information can, however, be used in risk assessment strategies together with atmospheric dispersion models.     

A VIABLE METHODOLOGY TO IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLES AND STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: The “principles and standards for planning water and related land resources” were made effective October 25, 1973. The document was noticeably deficient in suggestions for the necessary implementing procedures to ensure its success. Current implementing procedures are based on an incorrect premise of maximizing a single objective subject to non-quantified constraints. A successful implementation of multiple objective planning requires optimizing simultaneously several competitive goals. A system of goal programming has been developed and applied to decisionmaking situations as a test of its usefulness in planning for multiple objective water resources projects. The result is a project planning process which can be replicated for adjustments in expected resource supplies or demands to provide a tradeoff matrix between economic and environmental objectives as well as traditional functional purposes. This procedure, tested on the Cross Florida Barge Canal, is an integrated analysis of economic and environmental values which may be as effective in implementing multiple objective planning as the “Green Book” was in developing the now inappropriate benefit cost analysis.     

The impacts of road transport on air quality in the Greater Manchester region, UK: policies towards a sustainable transport system

The transport-induced air quality problems of the Greater Manchester region are examined. The problems are defined in terms of economic and social factors leading to the development of a car-based economy. The impacts of transport emissions on the natural and built environment and human health are discussed. The administrative, legislative and pollution control responses to the problem are examined. The nature of future air quality problems will require an integration of traffic management, land use, public transport and pollution control policies if they are to be satisfactorily addressed. A series of policy recommendations towards this end are included.     

空气污染物的时空演化及社会经济驱动因素研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

本文以2006—2015年长江三角洲城市群为研究对象,分析该地区不同部门因能源消费而产生的典型污染物排放量,然后利用LMDI模型,对空气污染进行社会经济驱动因素分析。结果表明:该地区CO_2、SO_2、PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)等空气污染物排放量均呈现先快速增长后缓慢减少的趋势,排放的峰值多出现在了2013年,而NO_x则一直保持增长的趋势。其中,电力与工业部门是空气污染物的主要排放源,但对排放量贡献呈减少趋势,生活部门与交通部门污染物排放量则逐步增长,尤其是对PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)排放量的贡献不可忽视。人口与经济增长对污染物排放量起到了正向拉动作用,经济因素的驱动作用最为明显,其效应值呈现先小幅增加后大幅下降的趋势,能源效率与能源结构有抑制作用,其对污染物排放的效应值仅次于经济因素,而能源结构变化的效应很小。     

Optimization of regional economic and environmental systems under fuzzy and random uncertainties

Environmental problems associated with socio-economic development have been growing concerns faced by many regional and/or national authorities. However, effective planning may encounter difficulties since uncertainties existing in a number of impact factors and pollution-related processes are often not well acknowledged and reflected. This study advances an interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming (IFCP) method for planning regional economic and environmental systems, where uncertainties presented as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions can be tackled. The developed method is applied to a real-world case for economic and environmental planning in the New Binhai District in the Municipality of Tianjin, China. Two scenarios based on multiple environmental constraints are examined. The results can help identify desired alternatives for planning regional development strategies, where compromised schemes are provided under an integrated consideration of economic efficiency and environmental protection under multiple uncertainties.     

DERIVATION OF THE GAMMA DISTRIBUTION BY USING THE PRINCIPLE OF MAXIMUM ENTROPY (POME)1

The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive the two-parameter gamma distribution used frequently in synthesis of instantaneous or finite-period unit hydrographs. The POME yielded the minimally prejudiced gamma distribution by maximizing the entropy subject to two appropriate constraints which were the mean of real values and the mean of the logarithms of real values of the variable. It provided a unique method for parameter estimation. Experimental data were used to compare this method with the methods of moments, cumulants, maximum likelihood estimation, and least squares.     

FORUM: Restoration of Stream Habitats in the Western United States: Restoration as Reexpression of Habitat Capacity

/ Ecological restoration is increasingly invoked as a tool for the maintenance and regeneration of biodiversity. Yet the conceptual foundations and assumptions underlying many restoration management activities are frequently unclear or unstated. Unforeseen, undesirable consequences of restoration activities may emerge as a result. A general conceptual framework for restoration is needed to better accommodate dynamic habitat systems and evolving biota in restoration strategies. A preliminary framework for stream habitat restoration emphasizing stream habitat-biota development is proposed. As developing systems, streams and stream biota exhibit temporal behaviors that change with stream environments. Underlying the dynamic development of streams is potential capacity. Streams express this capacity as an array of habitats over time and across the landscape. Human land uses in the western United States have rapidly altered aquatic habitats and the processes that shape habitat. As a result, the diversity of native fishes and their habitats has been suppressed. Restoration is fundamentally about allowing stream systems to reexpress their capacities. Several steps are provided to guide stream restoration activities. Key tasks include: identification of the historic patterns of habitat development; identification of developmental constraints; relief of those constraints; classification of sensitive, critical, or refuge habitats; protection of the developmental diversity that remains; and monitoring of biotic responses to habitat development. KEY WORDS: Stream habitat; Stream biota; System capacity; System development; Restoration; Classification     

The cost of crop damage caused by ozone air pollution from motor vehicles

The effects of ozone air pollution on the agricultural sector are an important environmental challenge facing policy makers. Most studies of the economic impact of air pollution on agriculture have found that a 25% reduction in ambient ozone would provide benefits of at least $1–2 billion annually in the United States. This paper extends existing research by estimating the benefits of a reduction in emissions from a major source of ozone formation: motor-vehicle emissions. An agricultural production model is combined with an analysis of motor-vehicle emissions and air quality to estimate the impacts of emissions from six different motor-vehicle classes, at both the regional and national level. The benefits to the agricultural sector from completely eliminating ozone precursor emissions from motor vehicles ranges between $3·5 and $6·1 billion annually.