MULTICRITERION ANALYSIS OF FOREST WATERSHED MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of alternative forest watershed management practices are examined from a multicriterion viewpoint in order to select the most satisfactory management scheme. The selection process is carried out using two types of multicriterion decision making techniques: the outranking types of ELECTRE I and II, and the distance-based type of compromise programming (CP). The process is illustrated using the U.S. Forest Service Beaver Creek Experimental Watershed in the Salt-Verde River Basin of Arizona as an example. The desired objectives of the experimental study and the alternative forest watershed resources management schemes are transformed into an evaluation matrix of alternatives versus criteria array. Analyses of the matrix using the aforementioned techniques result in a complete preference ordering of the feasible alternatives in the cases of ELECTRE LI and CP and a partial ordering when ELECTRE I is used. In addition, some sensitivity analyses have been performed and showed ELECTRE II and CP to be fairly robust with respect to parameter changes, while ELECTRE I being highly sensitive to changes in threshold levels. Overall the three techniques pointed out that 65 percent vegetation cut is the best management scheme, while the next best is shown to be 50 percent vegetation cut.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.     

MULTICRITERION DECISION MAKING FOR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATIONS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Flood control operations are generally complex in nature, as they are often associated with a large quantity of uncertain factors in combination of noncommensurable criteria. It has been found that the use of fuzzy set theory coupled with multicriterion decision making (MCDM) methods is very promising. In this paper, a multicriterion fuzzy recognition model is established for flood control operations. A subjective preference and iterative weights method is proposed for weight assessment. First, an initial solution of criteria weights, which is directly analyzed from the selected alternatives, is obtained by using the proposed fuzzy recognition model. Then, according to their knowledge related to real time flood operations, operators may modify the initial weights if necessary. When the relative membership grades of alternatives belonging to all rankings are fixed, a defuzzification equation is used to calculate the rank feature value vector. Based on the rank feature value vector, one can evaluate the alternative set. Two flood operation cases are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model. With the incorporation of the operator's knowledge related to flood operations, the proposed model is flexible in giving weights and realizes more practical flood control operations.     

MULTICRITERION ANALYSIS OF GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Multicriterion decision making (MCDM) techniques were used to analyze a groundwater contamination management problem from the viewpoint of conflicting multiple objectives. The groundwater management model was used to find a compromise strategy for trading off fresh water supply, containment of the waste, and total pumping cost in a hypothetical confined aquifer affected by previous waste disposal action. A groundwater flow model was used to formulate the hydraulic constraints. A linear system model was used to describe drawdown and velocity as functions of the decision variables which were pumping rates. The model determines the pumping location and rates. A modified c-constraint method was used to generate the set of nondominated solutions which were the alternative compromise strategies. Three different MCDM techniques, Compromise programming (CP), ELECTRA II and MCQA II, were used to select a “satisficing” alternative. Analysis of the results showed that, although these techniques follow different principles, the same preferred strategies were reached. Also, it was noticed that maintaining high groundwater velocities is expensive and difficult. In order to meet a two year target date, large amounts of water had to be pumped. Therefore, rapid restoration results in large pumping volumes and high costs.     

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MODELS FOR APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A research project was undertaken for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the relative utility and effectiveness of four well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models for applications in realistic water resources planning settings. A series of experiments was devised to examine the impact of rating and ranking procedures on the decision making behavior of users (e.g., planners, managers, analysts, etc.) when faced with situations involving multiple evaluation criteria and numerous alternative planning projects. The four MCDM models tested were MATS-PC, EXPERT CHOICE, ARIADNE, and ELECTRE. Two groups of analysts and decision makers were tested. One group consisted of experienced U.S. Army Corps planners, while the other was comprised of graduate students. Based on a series of nonparametric statistical tests, the results identified EXPERT CHOICE as the preferred MCDM model by both groups based largely on ease of use and understandability. ARIADNE fostered the largest degree of agreement within and among the two groups of individuals tested. The tests also lend support to the claim that rankings are not affected significantly by the choice of decision maker (i.e., who uses any of these MCDM models) or which of these four models is used.     

GROUND WATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN USING MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING ANT) GEOSTATISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A multi-criteria approach to ground water quality monitoring network design is developed. The methodology combines multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and modifications of geostatistical variance reduction analysis. Composite programming, a distance based optimization algorithm that employs a hierarchial structure, is used for the MCDM component of the design methodology. MCDM allows the consideration of numerous, often conflicting, design criteria. The methodology is useful for identifying the preferred combination of direct borehole and indirect geo-electric data. It also permits the use of prior information during initial stages of network development. Multi-variate kriging is employed to evaluate network performance using the combination of direct borehole data and indirect geoelectric data. Weighted measures of estimation variance are used as primary measures of performance, with the reduction in estimation variance being computed by the fictitious point method. Case study results demonstrate that the network design methodology can be used in both early and late phases of network development. It also leads to selection of the preferred combination and spatial orientation of direct and indirect data sources while considering cost-effectiveness and performance of alternative designs.     

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE‐OBJECTIVE DECISION‐MAKING METHODS FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Making decisions for environmental management is a complex task due to the multiplicity and diversity of technological choices. Furthermore, the exploitation of natural resources and the preservation of the natural environment imply objectives that are often in conflict within a sustainable development paradigm. Managers and other decision makers require techniques to assist them in understanding strategic decision making. This paper illustrates the use of a multiple‐objective decision‐making methodology and an integrative geographical information system‐based decision‐making tool developed to help watershed councils prioritize and evaluate restoration activities at the watershed level. Both were developed through a multidisciplinary approach. The decision‐making tool is being applied in two watersheds of Oregon's Willamette River Basin. The results suggest that multiple‐objective methods can provide a valuable tool in analyzing complex watershed management issues.     

INTEGRATING HUMANS IN ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT USING MULTI‐CRITERIA DECISION MAKING1

ABSTRACT: The Ecosystem Management (EM) process belongs to the category of Multi‐Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems. It requires appropriate decision support systems (DSS) where “all interested people” would be involved in the decision making process. Environmental values critical to EM, such as the biological diversity, health, productivity and sustainability, have to be studied, and play an important role in modeling the ecosystem functions; human values and preferences also influence decision making. Public participation in decision and policy making is one of the elements that differentiate EM from the traditional methods of management. Here, a methodology is presented on how to quantify human preferences in EM decision making. The case study of the National Park of River Nestos Delta and Lakes Vistonida and Ismarida in Greece, presented as an application of this methodology, shows that the direct involvement of the public, the quantification of its preferences and the decision maker's attitude provide a strong tool to the EM decision making process. Public preferences have been given certain weights and three MCDM methods, namely, the Expected Utility Method, Compromise Programming and the Analytic Hierarchy Process, have been used to select alternative management solutions that lead to the best configuration of the ecosystem and are also socially acceptable.     

Selection of optimum fish oil fuel blend to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in an IC engine—A hybrid multiple criteria decision aid approach

The increasing demand on energy due to population growth and rising of living standards has led to considerable use of fossil fuels which has in turn, had an adverse impact on environmental pollution and depletion of fossil fuels in Internal Combustion (IC) engine sector. Alternative fuel blend evaluation in IC engine fuel technologies is a very important strategic decision involving decisions balancing within a number of criteria and opinions from different decision maker of IC engine experts. The selection of appropriate source of biodiesel and proper blending of biodiesel plays a major role in alternate energy production. This paper describes an application of hybrid Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique for the selection of optimum biodiesel blend in the IC engine. The proposed model, Analytical Network Process (ANP) is integrated with Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to evaluate the optimum blend. Here the ANP is used to determine the relative weights of the criteria, whereas TOPSIS is used for obtaining the final ranking of alternative blends. An efficient pair-wise comparison process and ranking of alternatives can be achieved for optimum blend selection through the integration of ANP and TOPSIS. The obtained preference order for the blends are as B20 > B40 > Diesel > B60 > B80 > B100. This paper highlights a new insight into MCDM techniques to evaluate the best fuel blend for the decision makers such as engine manufactures and R&D engineers to meet the fuel economy and emission norms to empower the green revolution.     

Multicriteria Group Decision-making Model for Environmental Conflict Analysis in the Cape Region,Mexico

This paper is concerned with developing a model for group decision making under multiple criteria. The multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM)problem involves a set of feasible land use patterns that are evaluated on the basis of multiple, conflicting and noncommensurate criteria by a group of individuals. The model integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and an integer mathematical programming method. The former provides a tool for structuring the decision problem and determining land suitability for different socio-economicactivities (the uses of land), the latter is used to identify the land use pattern that maximizes consensus among interest groups. The model is used to analyze environmental conflict over land resource allocation in the Cape Region of Mexico.     

Multiple criteria decision making: Facilitating a learning environment

Effective decision making for sustainability requires consideration of multiple evaluation criteria. A numerical weight, assigned to each criterion, is the most common tool used to formalize preferences in Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). However, there are methods other than applying weights, which can be used to explore and articulate preferences. Two such groups have been identified as aspirational and holistic methods. The authors are interested in establishing if the different approaches to MCDM vary in their ability to facilitate a learning environment. There has been little examination of how this might best be achieved. An attempt is made to set out some hypotheses about which characteristics of MCDM tools may best support such learning. Additionally, three MCDM tools, representing the weighting, aspirational and holistic methods, are evaluated through a workshop for their ability to support individual learning. This includes a new tool, referred to as Target Ordering, which explores preferences through criteria targets rather than applying a weight to the criteria themselves.     

A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for air quality management under uncertainty

A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming (TIJP) method is developed for planning a regional air quality management system with multiple pollutants and multiple sources. The TIJP method incorporates the techniques of two-stage stochastic programming, joint-probabilistic constraint programming and interval mathematical programming, where uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values can be addressed. Moreover, it can not only examine the risk of violating joint-probability constraints, but also account for economic penalties as corrective measures against any infeasibility. The developed TIJP method is applied to a case study of a regional air pollution control problem, where the air quality index (AQI) is introduced for evaluation of the integrated air quality management system associated with multiple pollutants. The joint-probability exists in the environmental constraints for AQI, such that individual probabilistic constraints for each pollutant can be efficiently incorporated within the TIJP model. The results indicate that useful solutions for air quality management practices have been generated; they can help decision makers to identify desired pollution abatement strategies with minimized system cost and maximized environmental efficiency.     

Public and Private Compromises in Agricultural Water Management

Agricultural water management is a complex decision-making problem involving multiple criteria of different nature as well as multiple decision agents with different interests. To handle this multiplicity of objectives and interests a pragmatic approach based on compromise programming is proposed in this paper. The methodology is applied to an agricultural water management problem in Tauste, Spain. Public, environmentalist and private decision makers are considered. The approach proposed reveals itself as a pragmatic alternative to other approaches based on aggregate utility functions with very sound theoretical underpinnings but with few possibilities of actually being put into practice.     

GENERATING FARM DESCRIPTIONS IN A WATERSHED FROM INCOMPLETE DATA USING SIMULATED ANNEALING1

ABSTRACT: A fundamental problem faced in developing spatially explicit, simulation‐based analyses of watershed management and policy options is determining the distribution and spatial location of agricultural resources within a watershed based on incomplete information. This paper describes the use of simulated annealing, a heuristic scheduling process, to generate an assignment of all livestock and agricultural fields in a watershed to hypothetical farms such that the combined distribution of farm types, livestock, and farmland within the watershed is a reasonable representation of watershed‐level data. Compared to a manual method using GIS‐based analysis and data from aerial photography, the heuristic method was more likely to generate realistic spatial characterizations of the distribution of agricultural resources and practices in a watershed. Also compared to the manual method, the heuristic process was considerably more efficient and could more easily accommodate multiple criteria and modifications to those criteria.     

The optimal dam site selection using a group decision-making method through fuzzy TOPSIS model

The complex and controversial task of selecting a dam site in a river basin can be successfully achieved using science-informed multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. In this paper, we describe the application of the group fuzzy TOPSIS model for optimal ranking of the case study of Kandoleh dam sites in Kermanshah province, Iran, involving 18 input criteria. In this study, decision-making committee was made up of 20 involved decision makers. The comments of four non-biased, external experts in dam site selection were also used. The triangular fuzzy numbers were used to apply experts’ opinions on the selection criteria. In total, four alternative sites were assessed based on the technical, economic, social and environmental considerations and the data were analyzed using fuzzy TOPSIS MCDM model. Ranking results were compared with multi-criteria decision-making models, including the ELimination and Choice Expressing the REality and simple additive weighting. This logical, open and transparent framework provides a science-informed decision-making approach for complex problems such as optimal dam site selection. Finally, using sensitivity analysis, local studies and group discussions, we demonstrated the multiple benefits of the proposed novel method for a science-informed, open and transparent method for optimal ranking of the dam site candidates.     

A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making

The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.     

SAGE: A NEW PARTICIPANT-VALUE METHOD FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT1

SAGE, a proposed method for environmental assessment, focuses on eliciting and incorporating value weights in multiple-objective decision making. In this method, the value weights are inferred from the tradeoffs that people make in choices about alternatives. These weights are applied to scaled scores for accounts based on measurable attributes of each objective. In order to indicate the political ramifications of decisions and to facilitate sensitivity analysis, the values held by various groups are presented in matrix from arrayed by group affiliation or by judgment types that share common values. Results of a trial application of SAGE to a land use/watershed management problem in a growing urban area are presented.     

MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in multiple objective decision making methods presented in the upcoming sequence of research papers are evaluated and compared with respect to their usefulness in addressing challenging problems in water resources management. Because many of the decision making techniques originated in the field of operational research, the historical evolution of this field is outlined and the current need for developing a wide range of techniques for employment in strategic decision making is pointed out. Informative attributes for classifying decision making techniques are given to allow a practitioner to select decision aids that can best model the key characteristics of the particular problems under study. By systematically applying a wide variety of multiple objective decision making techniques to many different kinds of water resources problems, the authors of the papers clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing these methods for assisting in making both tactical and strategic decisions in water resources management.     

FUZZY DECISION MAKING IN GROUND WATER NITRATE RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Ground water nitrate contamination is widespread in the United States and especially prevalent in agriculture-intensive areas such as the Midwest. To reduce human health risks (i.e., methemoglobinemia and cancer risks) from nitrates in ground water supplies, several nitrate risk-management strategies can be developed based on acceptable levels of human health risks, the reasonableness of the cost required for risk reduction, and the technical feasibility of nitrate-control methods. However, due to a lack of available information, assessing risk, cost, and technical feasibility contains elements of uncertainty. In this paper, a nitrate risk-management methodology using fuzzy sets in combination with a multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) technique is developed to assist decision makers in evaluating, with uncertain information, possible regulatory actions along with the various nitrate risk-management strategies in order to determine an appropriate strategy. The methodology is illustrated using data from a community with a nitrate water-quality problem.