Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model.A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions.     

A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

The Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency has recommended that risk reduction strategies become the centerpiece of environmental protection. The goal in developing such strategies is to identify opportunities for greatest reduction of ecological risks. This is a perspective that is significantly more comprehensive than the traditional focus on human health risks arising from environmental degradation. The identification of ecological risks upon which environmental protection efforts should be focused requires an ecological risk assessment methodology that is based on anthropogenic stressors affecting an ecosystem and a set of impaired use criteria. A methodology based on this concept is developed and discussed in this article. The methodology requires that risk values be assigned to each ecosystem stressor-impaired use pair that reflect the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given impaired use criterion. Once these data are available, mathematical analyses based on concepts from fuzzy set theory are performed to obtain a ranking of ecosystem stressors. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a case study involving Green Bay of Lake Michigan. A workshop was held in which 11 persons with extensive knowledge of the Green Bay ecosystem determined risk values through a group-consensus process. The analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) from several perspectives, including prevention management and remediation management. The overall conclusion of the workshop participants was that the fuzzy set decision model is a useful and effective methodology for differentiating environmental risk.     

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: A review

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.     

A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.     

APPLICATION OF ENHANCED ANNEALING TO GROUND WATER REMEDIATION DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for ground water remediation design has been developed that interfaces ground water simulation models with an enhanced annealing optimizer. The ground water flow and transport simulators provide the ability to consider site‐specific contamination and geohydrologic conditions directly in the assessment of alternative remediation system designs. The optimizer facilitates analysis of tradeoffs between technical, environmental, regulatory, and financial risks for alternative design and operation scenarios. A ground water management model using an optimization method referred to as “enhanced annealing” (simulated annealing enhanced to include “directional search” and “memory” mechanisms) has been developed and successfully applied to an actual restoration problem. The demonstration site is the contaminated unconfined aquifer referred to as N‐Springs located at Han‐ford, Washington. Results of the demonstration show the potential for improving groundwater restoration system performance while reducing overall system cost.     

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability,Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.     

When does nitrate become a risk for humans?

Is nitrate harmful to humans? Are the current limits for nitrate concentration in drinking water justified by science? There is substantial disagreement among scientists over the interpretation of evidence on the issue. There are two main health issues: the linkage between nitrate and (i) infant methaemoglobinaemia, also known as blue baby syndrome, and (ii) cancers of the digestive tract. The evidence for nitrate as a cause of these serious diseases remains controversial. On one hand there is evidence that shows there is no clear association between nitrate in drinking water and the two main health issues with which it has been linked, and there is even evidence emerging of a possible benefit of nitrate in cardiovascular health. There is also evidence of nitrate intake giving protection against infections such as gastroenteritis. Some scientists suggest that there is sufficient evidence for increasing the permitted concentration of nitrate in drinking water without increasing risks to human health. However, subgroups within a population may be more susceptible than others to the adverse health effects of nitrate. Moreover, individuals with increased rates of endogenous formation of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds are likely to be susceptible to the development of cancers in the digestive system. Given the lack of consensus, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive, independent study to determine whether the current nitrate limit for drinking water is scientifically justified or whether it could safely be raised.     

Assessment of potential groundwater contamination sources in a wellhead protection area

Determining the human health dangers from potential contamination sources, within a wellhead protection area (WHPA), requires that a risk analysis be undertaken. In this study, a desktop geographic information system and spreadsheet software are used to implement an EPA risk screening methodology for WHPAs called 'Managing Ground Water Contamination Sources in Wellhead Protection Areas--A Priority Setting Approach'. The methodology was applied to a WHPA in Gaston County, North Carolina. Results indicate that the risk of well contamination from an interstate highway and gas station with old steel underground storage tanks were comparatively high. Medium risks included a thoroughfare and highway, while low risks were assigned to machine shops, a body shop, septic systems and a gas station with new underground storage tanks and secondary containment. A sensitivity analyses of the Priority Setting Approach indicated that risk scores were extremely sensitive to hydrogeologic variables such as hydraulic conductivity. It is recommended that risk assessors utilize a range of hydrogeologic parameters to assess overall risk from each potential contamination source.     

The development of a method to determine the burden of climate change on different health outcomes at a local scale: a case study in Osaka Prefecture,Japan

Climate change impacts human health in a variety of ways. Variables including the climate-related risk factor, the health outcome and location all determine the nature and extent of the impact. The existence of different pathways and endpoints presents a problem for quantifying and comparing impacts. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) provides a common scale, whereby the impact of climate change on both acute and chronic health outcomes can be compared. This study presents a methodology to calculate the impact of climate change on human health at a local scale, using cardiovascular disease (CVD) and meteorological disaster-related injuries (DRIs) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, as applied case studies. An additional very fine scale assessment of CVD conducted at the neighbourhood level to demonstrate the importance of conducting risk assessments at a local level. The comparative results calculated the impact of climate change in 2050 to be 16.866 DALY/100,000 population for CVD and 0.645 DALY/100,000 for meteorological DRIs. The actual impact of climate change by 2050 on CVD is judged to be higher, although the relative risk was projected to be lower (1.006, compared to 1.263 for meteorological DRIs). The fine scale assessment revealed the variations in the projected impact of climate change on CVD for all administrative zones in Osaka Prefecture. The range of impacts varied from 0 to 114.29 DALY/100,000. The results demonstrate the applicability of using DALY to quantify the impact of climate change on different health outcomes, using a transferable methodology, and provide information that enables evidence-based prioritisation of climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.     

TEMPORARY WATER TRANSFERS FOR DRY-YEAR WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT: Temporary transfers of water for dry year water supply are analyzed for cost and operational feasibility. The temporary transfer is implemented as part of a water rights option agreement (WROA) between a lesson and a lessee. First, engineering analysis determines the technical feasibility and operations plan under the Colorado doctrine of prior appropriation. The cost of the WROA to a water utility is estimated. Other considerations in the agreement are discussed. The WROA is compared to other dry-year supply alternatives using a water system simulation model to obtain expected cost and operational performance characteristics.     

Multi-criteria decision analysis for the optimal management of nitrate contamination of aquifers

We present an integrated methodology for the optimal management of nitrate contamination of ground water combining environmental assessment and economic cost evaluation through multi-criteria decision analysis. The proposed methodology incorporates an integrated physical modeling framework accounting for on-ground nitrogen loading and losses, soil nitrogen dynamics, and fate and transport of nitrate in ground water to compute the sustainable on-ground nitrogen loading such that the maximum contaminant level is not violated. A number of protection alternatives to stipulate the predicted sustainable on-ground nitrogen loading are evaluated using the decision analysis that employs the importance order of criteria approach for ranking and selection of the protection alternatives. The methodology was successfully demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The results showed the importance of using this integrated approach which predicts the sustainable on-ground nitrogen loadings and provides an insight into the economic consequences generated in satisfying the environmental constraints. The results also show that the proposed decision analysis framework, within certain limitations, is effective when selecting alternatives with competing demands.     

Protecting asset value and driving performance with a dynamic,risk-based contingency fund

We present a risk-based contingency fund management methodology to mitigate the impact of external risks on asset value and performance. Many asset intensive industries, such as water and energy utilities, are significantly affected by external risks such as extreme weather events. We put the case for a centrally held risk-based contingency fund that would mitigate against ‘medium’ impact ‘medium’ probability events that fall outside of large losses covered by insurance and smaller ‘normal’ operating losses. Our risk-based contingency approach is appropriate for short-term business planning (1–5 years) and would complement longer term planning, for example climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Our approach offers a risk-based methodology to manage contingency that is explicit and defensible. Critically, our methodology allows contingency to be managed dynamically as risk probabilities and impacts change, creating a mechanism for contingency funds to be periodically released if risk exposure reduces. The long-term benefit of dynamic, risk-based contingency is to reduce the impact of external risks and support long-term sustainability.     

Informing the development of decision support tools for risk management: the case of electrical and magnetic fields

This paper describes tools developed through a community consultative process to help decision makers manage electrical and magnetic fields (EMF) health risk. The process involved in‐depth interviews with experts (N=12) and focus group discussions with seven different stakeholder groups. The results reveal commonly held intense public concerns about the long‐term health effects of EMF. These concerns were further reinforced by the lack of public trust in both government and industry with regards to EMF risk management. Overall, the participants wanted tools that can be used to manage EMF information, scientific uncertainty about EMF and the complex environment in which EMF issues are embedded. The findings contributed to a mapping out of response formats to address public concerns related to risk, hazard, trust, accountability and fairness across a range of stakeholder groups. These tools and their roles in the management of complex and variable risks, involving new circumstances (e.g. privatization) and information (e.g. new scientific studies) are presented. The importance of recognizing and working with uncertainty through adaptive management strategies, using qualitative approaches, is also discussed.     

Irrigation pricing policies and its impact on agricultural inputs demand in Tunisia: a DEA-based methodology

This paper estimates farmers' individual irrigation water demand functions employing the information hidden in individual farmers' technical efficiency. This information is extracted through the development of a new deductive methodology based on inverse Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. The empirical results for Tunisia show that farmers who are more technically efficient have less elastic irrigation water demand functions; these farmers would adjust demand only to a limited extent and they can afford the water price. In contrast, water pricing significantly affects those that are less efficient. These farmers shift towards a different cropping pattern using significantly less water and more land when the price of water increases. Thus, higher water prices would threaten this category's livelihood if their efficiency is not improved. However, if the technical efficiency of these farmers were to improve, then it would be more difficult to reach water saving objectives since their demand will also become highly inelastic. The findings have important implications in view of the objectives of Tunisia water policy which include:full cost recovery, continuity of the irrigation activity, and water saving at the national level.     

Five-wheel framework for system-based monitoring of heavy metal pollution in rivers

Sectorial approach for monitoring heavy metal pollution in rivers has failed to report realistic pollution status and associated ecological and human health risks. The increasing spread of heavy metals from different sources and emerging risks to human and environmental health call for reexamining heavy metal pollution monitoring frameworks. Also, the sources, spread, and load of heavy metals in the environment have changed significantly over time, requiring consequent modification in the monitoring frameworks. Therefore, studies on heavy metal monitoring in rivers conducted in the last decade were evaluated for experimental designs, research frameworks, and data presentations. Most studies (∼99%) (i) lacked inclusiveness of all environmental compartments; (ii) focused on “one pollutant – one/two compartment” or sometimes “one pollutant – one compartment – one effect” approach; and (iii) remained “data-rich but information poor.” An ecological approach with integrative system thinking is proposed to develop a holistic approach for monitoring river pollution. It is visualized that heavy metal monitoring, risk analyses, and water management must incorporate tracking pollutants in different environmental compartments of a river (water, sediment, and floodplain/bank soil) and consider correlating it with riverbank land use. The systems-based pollution monitoring and assessment studies will reveal the critical factors that drive heavy metals pollutant movement in ecosystems and associated potential risks to the environment, wildlife, and humans. Also, water quality and pollution indexing tools would help better communicate complex pollution data and associated risks among all stakeholders. Therefore, integrating systems approaches in scientific- and policy-based tools would help sustainably manage the health of rivers, wildlife, and humans.     

Emerging Tools for Continuous Nutrient Monitoring Networks: Sensors Advancing Science and Water Resources Protection

Sensors and enabling technologies are becoming increasingly important tools for water quality monitoring and associated water resource management decisions. In particular, nutrient sensors are of interest because of the well‐known adverse effects of nutrient enrichment on coastal hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and impacts to human health. Accurate and timely information on nutrient concentrations and loads is integral to strategies designed to minimize risk to humans and manage the underlying drivers of water quality impairment. Using nitrate sensors as the primary example, we highlight the types of applications in freshwater and coastal environments that are likely to benefit from continuous, real‐time nutrient data. The concurrent emergence of new tools to integrate, manage, and share large datasets is critical to the successful use of nutrient sensors and has made it possible for the field of continuous monitoring to rapidly move forward. We highlight several near‐term opportunities for federal agencies, as well as the broader scientific and management community, that will help accelerate sensor development, build and leverage sites within a national network, and develop open data standards and data management protocols that are key to realizing the benefits of a large‐scale, integrated monitoring network. Investing in these opportunities will provide new information to guide management and policies designed to protect and restore our nation's water resources.     

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Treated Wastewater Use for Agriculture in Water Deficit Regions1

Al-Juaidi, Ahmed E., Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, and Ungtae Kim, 2010. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Treated Wastewater Use for Agriculture in Water Deficit Regions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):395-411. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00409.x Abstract: Coastal regions such as the Gaza Strip of Palestine with limited freshwater supply suffer significantly due to the rapid depletion of water levels, seawater intrusion, and increased water demands. In such regions, use of treated wastewater (TWW) is a viable option if public health issues are addressed. The goal of this paper is to address the use of TWW in agriculture while considering net benefit, economic efficiency of water use (EEWU), environmental goals, and public health risks. The proposed methodology considers public health risk assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the beneficial use of TWW in agriculture. The methodology was demonstrated for the Gaza Strip. The health risk assessment suggests that increasing the elapsed time between irrigation and consumption and switching from surface to sprinkler and drip irrigation are practical measures to reduce public health risks. The optimization and decision analyses show that proper allocation of freshwater and TWW and distribution of land area by crop type can significantly increase the net benefit and EEWU. In most cases, net benefit increased by 44%, groundwater use reduced 29% while increasing the EEWU by threefold compared with the existing conditions. The multi-criteria decision analysis with weighted goal programming can develop flexible management options that considers a given decision-maker preference. When groundwater abstraction for agriculture reduced from 57 to 36 Mm³ as per decision analysis, the corresponding area below mean sea level decreased by 58% indicating significant aquifer recovery.     

INORGANIC CONTAMINANTS IN DRINKING WATER CORRELATED WITH DISEASE OCCURRENCE IN NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Levels of nitrate and other inorganic contaminants in the drinking water of 453 Nebraska communities in 1986 were compared with health data for counties in which these communities were located. Data used included death rates per 100,000 population from heart disease, cancer, cerebrovascular disease, pneumonia and chronic lung disease, plus the rate of birth defects. Water samples from 42 communities exceeded the 0.01 mg/liter state and federal standards for selenium while 19 exceeded the 10 mg/liter NO₃-N standard. Statistical analysis using Pearson's correlation coefficient method showed no significant relationship between nitrate or selenium and any of the health effects studied. Only barium, fluoride, and chromium were weakly but significantly (P<0.05) correlated to one or more of the health effects. Approximately one-third of the water samples high in NO₃-N also had high levels of selenium. In some communities, the presence of nitrate also signaled the presence of barium, chromium, or arsenic. Results appear to indicate no immediate health risks related to levels of nitrate, selenium, or other inorganic contaminants in Nebraska drinking water. However, this type of statistical analysis cannot be interpreted as proving or disproving a cause and effect relationship.