Generation of Monthly Precipitation Under Climate Change for the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Abstract: This work develops a methodology to project the future precipitation in large river basins under limited data and climate change while preserving the historical temporal and spatial characteristics. The computationally simple and reliable conditional generation method (CGM) is presented and applied to generate reliable monthly precipitation data in the upper Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia where rain‐fed agriculture is prevalent. The results showed that the temporal analysis with the CGM performs better to reproduce the historical long‐term characteristics than other methods, and the spatial analysis with the CGM reproduced the historical spatial structure accurately. A 100‐year time series analysis using the outcomes of the six general circulation models showed that precipitation changes by the 2050s (2040 through 2069) can be ?7 to 28% with a mean increase of about 11%. The seasonal results showed increasing wet conditions in all seasons with changes of mean precipitation of 5, 47, and 6% for wet, dry, and mild seasons, respectively.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

Thermal venting to recover less-volatile hydrocarbons from the unsaturated zone, 1. Theory

Thermal venting is a remediation technique suitable to the liquid unsaturated zone to enhance recovery of less-volatile residual hydrocarbon contaminants. Thermal venting is different to traditional soil venting because heated air instead of air at ambient conditions is applied to the contaminated zone. The vapor pressure of a less-volatile contaminants is typically increased by temperature causing the gas-phase concentrations to increase by three- to five-fold over a temperature increase of 20–30°C. The work described in this first paper provides the theoretical framework of analysis related to thermal venting. The analysis included nonisothermal gas flow, thermal energy transport and multicomponent mass transport in a multiphase porous medium. The transient gas flow analysis included the effect of temperature on fluid properties and gas compressibility. The heat energy transport analysis was performed under the thermodynamic equilibrium condition with phase-summed effective thermal properties. Multi-component mass transport was performed under local equilibrium for partitioning between phases. Model verification was performed to the extend possible using analytical and available experimental data for different physical processes. The second paper of this two-part series will demonstrate the applicability of thermal venting technique through numerical simulations of hypothetical laboratory and field-scale scenarios.     

IMPLICATIONS OF ON‐GROUND NITROGEN LOADING AND SOIL TRANSFORMATIONS ON GROUND WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a modeling approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the variability of on‐ground nitrogen loading and the corresponding nitrate leaching to ground water. The methodology integrates all point and nonpoint sources of nitrogen, the national land cover database, soil nitrogen transformations, and the uncertainty of key soil and land use‐related parameters to predict the nitrate mass leaching to ground water. The analysis considered 21 different land use classes with information derived from nitrogen sources such as fertilizer and dairy manure applications, dairy lagoons, septic systems, and dry and wet depositions. Simulations were performed at a temporal resolution of one month to capture seasonal trends. The model was applied to a large aquifer of 376 square miles in Washington State that serves more than 100,000 residents with drinking water. The results showed that dairy manure is the main source of nitrogen in the area followed by fertilizers. It was also seen that nitrate leaching is controlled by the recharge rate, and there can be a substantial buildup of soil nitrogen over long periods of time. Uncertainty analysis showed that denitrification rate is the most influential parameter on nitrate leaching. The results showed that combining management alternatives is a successful strategy, especially with the use of nitrification inhibitors. Also, change in the land use pattern has a noticeable impact on nitrate leaching.     

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Kim, Ungtae and Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, 2009. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1361‐1378. Abstract: Climate change affects water resources availability of international river basins that are vulnerable to runoff variability of upstream countries especially with increasing water demands. The upper Blue Nile River Basin is a good example because its downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, depend solely on Nile waters for their economic development. In this study, the impacts of climate change on both hydrology and water resources operations were analyzed using the outcomes of six different general circulation models (GCMs) for the 2050s. The outcomes of these six GCMs were weighted to provide average future changes. Hydrologic sensitivity, flow statistics, a drought index, and water resources assessment indices (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability) were used as quantitative indicators. The changes in outflows from the two proposed dams (Karadobi and Border) to downstream countries were also assessed. Given the uncertainty of different GCMs, the simulation results of the weighted scenario suggested mild increases in hydrologic variables (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff) across the study area. The weighted scenario also showed that low‐flow statistics and the reliability of streamflows are increased and severe drought events are decreased mainly due to increased precipitation. Joint dam operation performed better than single dam operation in terms of both hydropower generation and mean annual storage without affecting the runoff volume to downstream countries, but enhancing flow characteristics and the robustness of streamflows. This study provides useful information to decision makers for the planning and management of future water resources of the study area and downstream countries.     

ARSENIC IN THE SHALLOW GROUND WATERS OF CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES: ASSESSMENT,HEALTH RISKS,AND COSTS FOR MCL COMPLIANCE1

A methodology consisting of ordinal logistic regression (OLR) is used to predict the probability of occurrence of arsenic concentrations in different threshold limits in shallow ground waters of the conterminous United States (CONUS) subject to a set of influencing variables. The analysis considered a number of maximum contaminant level (MCL) options as threshold values to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of arsenic in ranges defined by a given MCL of 3, 5, 10, 20, and 50 μg/l and a detection limit of 1 μg/l. The fit between the observed and predicted probability of occurrence was around 83 percent for all MCL options. The estimated probabilities were used to estimate the median background concentration of arsenic in the CONUS. The shallow ground water of the western United States is more vulnerable than the eastern United States. Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California in particular are hotspots for arsenic contamination. The risk assessment showed that counties in southern California, Arizona, Florida, and Washington and a few others scattered throughout the CONUS face a high risk from arsenic exposure through untreated ground water consumption. A simple cost effectiveness analysis was performed to understand the household costs for MCL compliance in using arsenic contaminated ground water. The results showed that the current MCL of 10 μg/l is a good compromise based on existing treatment technologies.     

Sustainability of ground water quality considering land use changes and public health risks

One of the major environmental issues of concern to policy-makers is the increased vulnerability of ground water quality (GWQ). Another issue of equal interest is the sustainability of natural resources for future generations. To understand the sustainability of the natural resources such as water in general, one needs to understand the impact of future land use changes on the natural resources. This work proposes a methodology to address sustainability of GWQ considering land use changes, aquifer vulnerability to multiple contaminants, and public health risks. The methodology was demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The land transformation model predicted that nearly 60 percent of the land use practices would change in the Sumas-Blaine Aquifer by the year 2015. The accuracy of the LTM model predictions increased to greater levels as the spatial resolution was decreased. Aquifer vulnerability analysis was performed for major contaminants using the binary logistic regression (LR) method. The LR model, along with the predicted future land use, was used to estimate the future GWQ using two indices-carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic ground water qualities. Sustainability of GWQ was then analyzed using the concept of 'strong' sustainability. The sustainability map of GWQ showed improvements in many areas where urbanization is expected to occur. The positive impact of urbanization on GWQ is an indication of the extensive damage caused by existing agricultural activities in the study area.     

Risk assessment at hazardous waste-contaminated sites with variability of population characteristics

Risk assessment is considered to be an effective scientific tool which enables decisionmakers to manage hazardous waste-contaminated sites in a cost-effective manner while preserving public health. However, the current risk assessment framework proposed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has limitations in addressing the true variability of population characteristics. This study proposed a methodology that is different from the existing framework by accounting for the true variability of population characteristics. The key differences of the proposed methodology and the existing framework are the (1) use of the transient exposure concentration; (2) use of the entire population rather than a representative ideal individual; (3) use of age- and gender-based population subgroups to represent population characteristics; (4) use of a population growth model to represent growth dynamics; and (5) presentation of risk through a risk profile with risk summarized through a single indicator, potential cancer incidences (PCI). The proposed methodology was applied in a ground water contamination scenario due to benzene to determine its applicability. The results of the study showed that age-based variability of population characteristics is important in predicting the population risk while gender played a small role. The existing US EPA methodology and its variation using age-independent variability of population characteristics overestimate the risk given by PCI substantially, and therefore, the decisions can lead to costly cleanup goals. Population risk is not a single value but a distribution due to the contribution from ditferent individuals of the exposed population. Hence, the decision criterion proposed in this study, PCI, is found to be a useful indicator to describe population carcinogenic risk to the society under a variety of conditions and scenarios.     

Groundwater stress and vulnerability in rural coastal aquifers under competing demands: a case study from Sri Lanka

Rural coastal aquifers are undergoing rapid changes due to increasing population, high water demand with expanding agricultural and domestic uses, and seawater intrusion due to unmanaged water pumping. The combined impact of these activities is the deterioration of groundwater quality, public health concerns, and unsustainable water demands. The Kalpitiya peninsula located northwest of Sri Lanka is one area undergoing such changes. This land area is limited and surrounded almost completely by sea and lagoon. This study consists of groundwater sampling and analysis, and vulnerability assessment using the DRASTIC method. The results reveal that the peninsula is experiencing multiple threats due to population growth, seawater intrusion, land use exploitation for intensive agriculture, groundwater vulnerability from agricultural and domestic uses, and potential public health impacts. Results show that nitrate is a prevalent and serious contaminant occurring in large concentrations (up to 128 mg/l NO₃?CN), while salinity from seawater intrusion produces high chloride content (up to 471 mg/l), affecting freshwater sources. High nitrate levels may have already affected public health based on limited sampling for methemoglobin. The two main sources of nitrogen loadings in the area are fertilizer and human excreta. The major source of nitrogen results from the use of fertilizers and poor management of intense agricultural systems where a maximum application rate of up to 11.21 metric tons N/km² per season is typical. These findings suggest that management of coastal aquifers requires an integrated approach to address both the prevalence of agriculture as an economic livelihood, and increasing population growth.     

Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis Using the Sparrow Model for Dissolved‐Solids Transport in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is due to both natural sources and processes, and anthropogenic activities. Given economic damage due to salinity of $295 million in 2010, understanding salinity sources and production together with transport are of great importance. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) is a nonlinear regression water quality model that simulates sources and transport of contaminants such as dissolved‐solids. However, SPARROW simulations of dissolved‐solids in the UCRB only represent conditions through 1998 due to limited data availability. More importantly, prior simulations focused on a single year calibration and its transferability to other years, and the validity of this approach is questionable, given the changing hydrologic and climatic conditions. This study presents different calibration approaches to assess the best approach for reducing model uncertainty. This study conducted simulations from 1999 to 2011, and the results showed good model accuracy. However, the number of monitoring stations decreased significantly in recent years resulting in higher model uncertainty. The uncertainty analysis was conducted using SPARROW results and bootstrapping. The results suggest that the watershed rankings based on salinity yields changed due to the uncertainty analysis and therefore, uncertainty consideration should be an important part of the management strategy.