IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of a severe sustained drought on Colorado River system water resources were investigated by simulating the physical and institutional constraints within the Colorado River Basin and testing the response of the system to different hydrologic scenarios. Simulations using Hydrosphere's Colorado River Model compared a 38-year severe sustained drought derived from 500 years of reconstructed streamflows for the Colorado River basin with a 38-year streamflow trace extracted from the recent historic record. The impacts of the severe drought on streamflows, water allocation, storage, hydropower generation, and salinity were assessed. Estimated deliveries to consumptive uses in the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and northern Arizona were heavily affected by the severe drought, while the Lower Basin states of California, Nevada, and Arizona suffered only slight shortages. Upper Basin reservoirs and streamflows were also more heavily affected than those in the Lower Basin by the severe drought. System-wide, total hydropower generation was 84 percent less in the drought scenario than in the historical stream-flow scenario. Annual, flow-weighted salinity below Lake Mead exceeded 1200 ppm for six years during the deepest portion of the severe drought. The salinity levels in the historical hydrology scenario never exceeded 1100 ppm.     

Trends in Western U.S. Snowpack and Related Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow1

Miller, W. Paul and Thomas C. Piechota, 2011. Trends in Western U.S. Snowpack and Related Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1197–1210. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00565.x Abstract: Water resource managers in the Western United States (U.S.) are currently faced with the challenge of adapting to unprecedented drought and uncertain impacts of climate change. Recent research has indicated increasing regional temperature and changes to precipitation and streamflow characteristics throughout the Western U.S. As such, there is increased uncertainty in hydroclimatological forecasts, which impact reservoir operations and water availability throughout the Western U.S., particularly in the Colorado River Basin. Previous research by the authors hypothesized a change in the character of precipitation (i.e., the frequency and amount of rainfall and snowfall events) throughout the Colorado River Basin. In the current study, 398 snowpack telemetry stations were investigated for trends in cumulative precipitation, snow water equivalent, and precipitation events. Observations of snow water equivalent characteristics were compared to observations in streamflow characteristics. Results indicate that the timing of the last day of the snow season corresponds well to the volume of runoff observed over the traditional peak flow season (April through July); conversely, the timing of the first day of the snow season does not correspond well to the volume of runoff observed over the peak flow season. This is significant to water resource managers and river forecasters, as snowpack characteristics may be indicative of a productive or unproductive runoff season.     

Evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic prediction in data‐scarce watersheds: an application in the Blue Nile River Basin

Data scarcity has been a huge problem in modeling the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Satellite data and different statistical methods have been used to improve the quality of conventional meteorological data. This study assesses the applicability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) climate data in modeling the hydrology of the region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up to compare the performance of CFSR weather with that of conventional weather in simulating observed streamflow at four river gauging stations in the Lake Tana basin — the upper part of the Upper Blue Nile basin. The conventional weather simulation performed satisfactorily (e.g., NSE ≥ 0.5) for three gauging stations, while the CFSR weather simulation performed satisfactorily for two. The simulations with CFSR and conventional weather yielded minor differences in the water balance components in all but one watershed, where the CFSR weather simulation gave much higher average annual rainfall, resulting in higher water balance components. Both weather simulations gave similar annual crop yields in the four administrative zones. Overall the simulation with the conventional weather performed better than the CFSR weather. However, in data‐scarce regions such as remote parts of the Upper Blue Nile basin, CFSR weather could be a valuable option for hydrological predictions where conventional gauges are not available.     

Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins1

Laforce, Serge, Marie‐Claude Simard, Robert Leconte, and François Brissette, 2011. Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):785‐799. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00560.x Abstract: A methodology is presented for mapping the flooded extent of rivers under projected climate change. The methodology follows a top‐down modeling approach, where future climate projections generated by global climate models (GCMs) are downscaled to the watershed scale and used as input to hydrological and hydrodynamic models for predicting future river flows and associated open water levels. A range of possible future climate responses are taken into account, allowing quantification of flood‐mapping uncertainties resulting from GCM structure and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES). Probabilistic projections of future flood zones are developed by assuming that all GCMs and GHGES be equally weighted. The proposed methodology was applied to two river basins located in southern Quebec, Canada, for the time horizons 2020 and 2080. Twenty‐ and hundred‐year floods were computed and corresponding flood maps have been produced. Results indicate that there is a general trend toward an increased spring peak discharge for the Châteauguay River Basin and a decrease for the du Nord River Basin at the 2020 horizon. A less obvious trend was observed for the 2080 horizon, some GCM‐GHGES producing an increase in spring peak flows, whereas others would result in a less severe spring flood. These uncertainties in flood flows have cascaded into uncertainties in the corresponding flooded extent and represented as probabilistic flood maps.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NILE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is developing a river forecast system for the Nile River in Egypt. The river forecast system operates on scientific work stations using hydrometeorological models and software to predict inflows into the high Aswan Dam and forecast flow hydrographs at selected gaging locations above the dam The Nile Forecasting System (NFS) utilizes satellite imagery from the METEOSAT satellite as the input to the forecast system. Satellite imagery is used to estimate precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin using five different techniques. Observed precipitation data and climatic statistics are used to improve precipitation estimation. Precipitation data for grid locations are input to a distributed water balance model, a hill slope routing model, and a channel routing model. A customized Geographic Information System (GIS) was developed to show political boundaries, rivers, terrain elevation, and gaging network. The GIS was used to develop hydrologic parameters for the basin and is used for multiple display features.     

Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales1

Arnell, Nigel W., 2011. Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):541‐549. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00548.x Abstract: Public water supplies in England and Wales are provided by around 25 private‐sector companies, regulated by an economic regulator (Ofwat) and environmental regulator (Environment Agency). As part of the regulatory process, companies are required periodically to review their investment needs to maintain safe and secure supplies, and this involves an assessment of the future balance between water supply and demand. The water industry and regulators have developed an agreed set of procedures for this assessment. Climate change has been incorporated into these procedures since the late 1990s, although has been included increasingly seriously over time and it has been an effective legal requirement to consider climate change since the 2003 Water Act. In the most recent assessment in 2009, companies were required explicitly to plan for a defined amount of climate change, taking into account climate change uncertainty. A “medium” climate change scenario was defined, together with “wet” and “dry” extremes, based on scenarios developed from a number of climate models. The water industry and its regulators are now gearing up to exploit the new UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections – but these pose significant practical and conceptual challenges. This paper outlines how the procedures for incorporating climate change information into water resources planning have evolved, and explores the issues currently facing the industry in adapting to climate change.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE TSENGWEN CREEK WATERSHED IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.     

ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho,Western Wyoming,and Northern Nevada1

Clark, Gregory M., 2010. Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho, Western Wyoming, and Northern Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):486-497. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00416.x Abstract: Recent studies have identified a pattern of earlier spring runoff across much of North America. Earlier spring runoff potentially poses numerous problems, including increased risk of flooding and reduced summer water supply for irrigation, power generation, and migratory fish passage. To identify changing runoff patterns in Idaho streams, streamflow records were analyzed for 26 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Idaho, western Wyoming, and northern Nevada, each with a minimum of 41 years of record. The 26 stations are located on 23 unregulated and relatively pristine streams that drain areas ranging from 28 to >35,000 km². Four runoff parameters were trend tested at each station for both the period of historical record and from 1967 through 2007. Parameters tested were annual mean streamflow, annual minimum daily streamflow, and the dates of the 25th and 50th percentiles of the annual total streamflow. Results of a nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test revealed a trend toward lower annual mean and annual minimum streamflows at a majority of the stations, as well as a trend toward earlier snowmelt runoff. Significant downward trends over the period of historical record were most prevalent for the annual minimum streamflow (12 stations) and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11 stations). At most stations, trends were more pronounced during the period from 1967 through 2007. A regional Kendall test for water years 1967 through 2007 revealed significant regional trends in the percent change in the annual mean and annual minimum streamflows (0.67% less per year and 0.62% less per year, respectively), the 25th percentile of streamflow (12.3 days earlier), and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11.5 days earlier).     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management1

Kang, Min‐Goo and Gwang‐Man Lee, 2011. Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):813‐827. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00559.x Abstract: To evaluate water resources sustainability at the watershed scale within a river basin’s context, the Water Resources Sustainability Evaluation Model is developed. The model employs 4 criteria (economic efficiency, social equity, environmental conservation, and maintenance capacity) and has 16 indicators, integrating them using their relative weights. The model is applied to evaluate the water resources sustainability of watersheds in the Geum River basin, South Korea. A geographic information system is employed to efficiently build a database for the indicators, and the values of the indicators are normalized using the probability distribution functions fitted to the datasets of the indicators. The evaluation results show that, overall, the water resources sustainability of the watersheds in the upper basin is better than other areas due to the good environmental conditions and the dam management policies of South Korea. The analysis of the correlations among the model’s components and the comparison between the results of the model and the Water Poverty Index show that the model can provide reasonable evaluation results for the water resources sustainability of watersheds. Consequently, it is concluded that the model can be an effective tool for evaluating the states of water resource management from the perspective of sustainable development and provide a basis on which to create policies for improving any inadequacies in watersheds.     

Integrated urban water management modelling under climate change scenarios

The concept of integrated water management is uncommon in urban areas, unless there is a shortage of supply and severe conflicts among the users competing for limited water resources. Further, problem of water management in urban areas will aggravate due to uncertain climatic events. Therefore, an Integrated Urban Water Management Model considering Climate Change (IUWMCC) has been presented which is suitable for optimum allocation of water from multiple sources to satisfy the demands of different users under different climate change scenarios. Effect of climate change has been incorporated in non-linear mathematical model of resource allocation in term of climate change factors. These factors have been developed using runoff responses corresponding to base and future scenario of climate. Future scenarios have been simulated using stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) for different IPCC climate change scenarios i.e. A1B, A2 and B1. Further, application of model has been demonstrated for a realistic water supply system of Ajmer urban fringe (India). Developed model is capable in developing adaptation strategies for optimum water resources planning and utilization in urban areas under different climate change scenarios.     

Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification1

Lee, Se‐Yeun, Alan F. Hamlet, Carolyn J. Fitzgerald, and Stephen J. Burges, 2011. Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):81‐92. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00490.x Abstract: Regional climate varies on interannual and decadal time scales that in turn affect annual streamflows, flood risks, and reservoir storage deficits in mid‐summer. However, these variable elements of the climate system are generally not included in water resources operating policies that attempt to preserve a balance between flood risk and other water resources system objectives. A methodology for incorporating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information in designing flood control curves is investigated. An optimization‐simulation procedure is used to develop a set of ENSO‐conditioned flood control rule curves that relate streamflow forecasts to flood control evacuation requirements. ENSO‐conditioned simulated flood risk and storage deficits under current operating policy are used to calibrate a unique objective function for each ENSO classification. Using a case study for the Columbia River Basin, we demonstrate that ENSO‐conditioned flood control curves constructed using the optimization‐simulation procedure consistently reduce storage deficits at a number of interrelated projects without increasing flood risk. For the Columbia Basin, the overall improvements in reservoir operations are relatively modest, and (in isolation) might not motivate a restructuring of flood control operations. However, the technique is widely applicable to a wide range of water resources systems and/or different climate indices.     

MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

SNOTEL,the Soil Climate Analysis Network,and water supply forecasting at the Natural Resources Conservation Service: Past,present, and future

The Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting (SSWSF) Program and the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) of the United States Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) generate key observational and predictive information for water managers. Examples include mountain climate and snow monitoring through manual snow surveys and the SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) and SNOtel LITE networks, in situ soil moisture data acquisition through the SCAN and SNOTEL networks, and water supply forecasting using river runoff prediction models. The SSWSF Program has advanced continuously over the decades and is a major source of valuable water management information across the western United States, and the SCAN network supports agricultural and other water users nationwide. Product users and their management goals are diverse, and use-cases range from guiding crop selection to seasonal flood risk assessment, drought monitoring and prediction, avalanche and fire prediction, hydropower optimization, tracking climate variability and change, environmental management, satisfying international treaty and domestic legal requirements, and more. Priorities going forward are to continue innovating to enhance the accuracy and completeness of the observational and model-generated data products these programs deliver, including expanded synergies with the remote sensing community and uptake of artificial intelligence while maintaining long-term operational reliability and consistency at scale.     

Rainfall Runoff Relationships for a Cloud Forest Watershed in Central America: Implications for Water Resource Engineering1

Caballero, Luis A., Alon Rimmer, Zachary M. Easton, and Tammo S. Steenhuis, 2012. Rainfall Runoff Relationships for a Cloud Forest Watershed in Central America: Implications for Water Resource Engineering. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1022‐1031. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00668.x Abstract: Understanding the basic relationships between rainfall and runoff is vital for effective management and utilization of scarce water resources. Especially, this is important in Central America with widespread potable water shortage during the dry months of the monsoon. Potential good water sources are cloud forests, but little information concerning its potential is available to water supply engineers. Our objective is to define rainfall‐runoff‐base flow relationships for a cloud forest catchment. Flumes were installed for measuring river flow in four subwatersheds in La Tigra National Park, Honduras. One of the four watersheds was a 636‐ha subwatershed (WS1) with 60% cloud forest coverage. Precipitation averaged 1,130 mm/yr over the entire basin. About half of the total rainfall became runoff for the cloud forest watershed whereas, for the adjacent undisturbed forested watershed, the total discharge was <20% of the amount of precipitation. Infiltration rates were generally greater than rainfall rates. Therefore, most rainfall infiltrated into the soil, especially in the upper, steep, and well‐drained portions of the watershed. Direct runoff was generated from saturated areas near the river and exposed bedrock. This research provides compelling evidence that base flow is the primary contributor to streamflow during both wet and dry seasons in cloud forest catchments. Protecting these flow processes over time is critical for the sustained provision of potable water.