Economical sensitivity analysis of rice husk utilization in a 300 kW<Subscript>el</Subscript> Micro Thermal Power Plant

Production of rice husks in Rio Grande do Sul State, which is the major rice production state in Brazil, needs to be adequately managed to diminish environmental impacts. A Micro Thermal Power Plant (MTP), which is a compact and small-scale biomass thermal power plant technology, can be used in electricity generation in thermal power plants with a power capacity up to 800 kW_el. This paper presents a feasibility analysis of a 300 kW_el MTP that is fuelled by rice husks using two different scenarios: the autoproduction (Case 1) and the independent production (Case 2) of electricity. Both scenarios were found to be unfeasible. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the variables that affect feasibility, such as the electricity commercialization price, the value of certified emission reductions and the financial interest rates. According to sensitivity analysis, small-scale thermal power plants could have feasibility if they received incentives through government programmes, such as through the exemption of equipment taxes and/or the reduction or elimination of the financial interest rate.     

关于Ramsey模型及其改进的研究和启示

缺水已经成为我国经济发展和社会进步的重要制约因素之一．而对水价的制定到对水资源的利用效率起科十分关键的作用。本文通过对Ramsey模型及其改进的研究．得出如下启示．即实行阶梯水价既有利于实现杜会福利的优化，也可以起到节约水资源的效果。由于阶梯水价机制的设计可以为制度安排、资本进入和市场运行提供更大的弹性空间．因此．本文的政策含义是：在实施阶梯水价的背景下．政府只需对基量水价按边际成本的定价原则来严格规制．从而有效提升水务市场的运行效率。上述举措的优点在于：由于基量水价被严格规制．消费者的基本用水福利可以得到满足；超过基本用水量的水价和再生水价的相对放松规制会鼓励社会资本进入水务行业．使行业运营效率得到提高；国有资本退出水务行业使得政府财政负担减轻，同时．由于放松规制．政府的规制成本也得以降低。最终城市水务行业可以真正做到可持续的发展。     

绿证交易、发售电配额制与可再生能源财税减负效应

为促进清洁能源消纳利用和减轻标杆电价政策财税负担,绿色电力证书(绿证)核发和认购制度已在全国试行。为验证两类政策并存下绿证交易的财税减负作用,该文构建绿证定价和财税减负效应模型,分类探讨不同交易机制和配额安排:绿证自由市场、发售电配额强制市场交易如何影响售证方定价策略和配额主体履约抉择,论证绿证市场均衡和政策互动如何影响可再生能源补助支出、电价附加和绿证交易的税负转嫁效应。模型论证与分类市场情景表明:①绿证交易提供了低成本履约的制度安排,有助于财税减负;②电力市场管制和交叉补贴电价政策下,发电商配额导致火电企业最优履约抉择是自建绿电项目而非绿证交易,绿证市场有价无市;③售电配额的市场交易效率更高,但发电商实施领导跟随-产量最优策略将造成电力和绿证价格双攀升,变相增加电价负担;④并网消纳和补贴拖欠削弱绿证价格而降低补贴转嫁,售电配额调整通过跨区绿电需求变化影响税负转嫁。这些结论蕴含的政策意义是:①兼顾绿电支付意愿、成本分担与应用目标,健全绿证认购市场体系;②理顺绿证定价与惩罚机制,确保绿证市场竞争均衡与履约效率;③完善省级配额机制,引导具备成本优势的跨区绿证交易;④协调政策互动效应,增强绿电溢价和绿证减负效应。     

Economic analysis of biogas and compost projects in a palm oil mill with clean development mechanism in Malaysia

This article is a case study to compare the economic viabilities of biogas generation and compost projects in a palm oil mill in Malaysia with and without clean development mechanism (CDM). Biogas is captured from anaerobic ponds or digester tanks treating palm oil mill effluent (POME) and converted to green renewable electricity for grid connection, while compost is produced from the shredded empty fruit bunch and raw untreated POME. The both technologies were compared by considering the changes of the materials flow and energy balances. A palm oil mill with a capacity of 54?t fresh fruit bunch per hour has the potential to produce either 6.9?GWh of electricity from biogas or fertilizer equivalent to 488?t of nitrogen, 76?t of phosphorus and 1,065?t of potassium per year. The economic analysis for 10?years project term analysis indicated that CDM gave a significant impact and ensured economic viability for both projects with 25?% of internal rate of return (IRR), RM 12.39 million of net present value (NPV) and 3.5?years of payback period (PBP) for biogas project, whereas 31?% of IRR, RM 10.87 million of NPV and 2.9?years of PBP for compost project, respectively. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicated that the profitability of both projects will vary depending on the economic situation, such as electricity price which is based on the government policy, whereas compost price that depend on fertilizer market price with 43?% NPV change in 20?% range of fertilizer value.     

控制中国燃煤发电污染的构想

控制中国燃煤发电污染的思路是,从中国主要大中型燃煤发电厂的容量和其用煤数据出发,考察中国燃煤发电的SO_2排放情况。结合对发电新技术开发评价研究的投资数据,估计为达到不同环境控制标准所需要的投资费用。设想通过征收电价附加费的办法积累燃煤电站的技术改造和采用新技术重建的资金。考虑研究开发和示范这些新技术所需要的时间,在估计累积这笔资全的时间为15年的假设下,附加费的变动范围(取决于不同技术组合的选择)大约为每度电增加0.005～0.01元。本方案的可行之处在于,为改善环境对电费所做的轻微提价,中国的全社会是可以接受的。而且这一方案又同时给出发展和应用新技术所需要的时间,它允许中国在多数燃煤发电技术上可以开展具有自己特点的研究开发工作。这些新技术在解决中国燃煤电站的改造和重建的同时,必然也会走向更广阔的世界市场。     

The financial additionality and viability of CDM projects allowing for uncertainty

Financial additionality and viability for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects is commonly demonstrated through deterministic internal rate of return (IRR) benchmark analysis, supplemented with a sensitivity analysis. This method is vulnerable to assumptions on cash flows (including that from carbon credits) and is unable to differentiate grades of separation from the benchmark. This paper examines the financial additionality test and viability in the presence of cash flow uncertainty, where IRR becomes a random variable. A case example project involving wind power is exampled. It is seen that the boundaries between acceptance and rejection as a CDM project based on financial additionality and viability tests become blurred, leading to possible alternative conclusions. Comment is given on false positives and false negatives, in terms of acceptance and rejection of projects.     

三峡工程的发电效能与湖北省电力工业结构调整

分析了湖北省电力工业存在的主要问题，一是电力结构不合理；二是调峰容量严重不足；三是重开发轻节能；四是电价偏高，市场需求回落。三峡电站建成投产后，大大改善全省电网运行条件和电能质量，有利于全国陪送大电力系统的形成和发展，获得联网效益，但是将进上步加剧湖北电网季节性电能偏多的矛盾，而且三峡电站上网电价将起诉意识答省电力价格。最后提出湖北省电力工业结构调整４条对策：１．优化电源结构；２．电网建设与电源建     

Sustainable domestic lighting options for poor people—an empirical study

The availability of sustainable and reasonably priced sources of energy for lighting is a prerequisite for the development of rural India. This study attempts to take a close look at the micro-level energy scene and its various options for domestic lighting, considering socio-economic condition of the poor people in rural areas. The concept of calculating levelized cost as cost per 300 lumen-hour is applied on source–device combinations of lighting and validated in Bargaon Community Development Block of Sundergarh District in Odisha, India, for finding out the low-priced energy sources for sufficient lighting. It is revealed that LED and CFL through solar photovoltaic and electricity should be the best choice of domestic lighting. Most of the households (97 %), even electrified, use kerosene regularly. There is a huge potential of biogas and solar photovoltaic which can overcome the problem of power cut, indoor pollution, carbon emission, etc. Supporting electrification to all households, this study is also justifying about efficient devices and off-grid power generation through SPV for all households and biogas for possible 2300 households. Government should immediately intervene, providing capital subsidy, micro-finance schemes, other credit mechanisms, training to local youths, etc. with adequate infrastructure and organizational development to make the clean energy such as solar home lighting system and biogas plant affordable and accessible by the poor villagers.     

Stand-alone hybrid energy system for sustainable development in rural India

Renewable energy system such as solar, wind, small hydro and biogas generators can be used successfully in rural off-grid locations where grid connection is not possible. The main objectives of this study are to examine which configuration is the most cost-effective for the village. One renewable energy model has been developed for supplying electric power for 124 rural households of an off-grid rural village in eastern India. The load demand of the village was determined by the survey work, and the loads were divided into three sub-heads such as primary load I, primary load II and deferred load. Locally available energy sources such as solar radiation and biogas derived from cow dung and kitchen wastes were used as sensitivity variables. This study is unique as it has not considered any diesel generator for supplying unmet electricity to the households; rather it completely depends on locally available renewable resources. Here in this paper, two different models were taken and their cost and environmental benefit were discussed and compared. The net present cost, levelised cost of energy and operating cost for various configurations of models were determined. The minimum cost of energy of $0.476/kWh with lowest net present cost of $386,971 and lowest operating cost ($21,025/year) was found with stand-alone solar–biogas hybrid system.     

互助资金政策对贫困村劳动力流动的影响--基于5省10县准实验研究的DID分析

促进贫困地区农村劳动力向外流动是提高农民收入、缩小城乡差距的关键。在农村劳动力尤其是贫困劳动力外流增速放缓的背景下,文章从信贷约束缓解的视角出发,基于5省10县互助资金监测的准实验研究项目,借助双重差分(DID)模型,利用1059个微观农户的三期面板数据,从家庭层面考察了互助资金政策对贫困村劳动力流动的影响,并从缓解流动性约束、资本替代劳动和提供隐性担保三个角度对作用机制进行了分析和检验。研究结果表明:①互助资金政策的实施对贫困村劳动力外流具有显著的促进作用。安慰剂检验和稳健性检验进一步加强了研究结论的可靠性。②缓解农户的流动性约束是互助资金促进贫困村劳动力外流的路径之一,通过向农户提供借款,使农户尤其是贫困农户获得了满足迁移成本的金融资源,从而促进了向外流动。③资本替代劳动的机制作用并不明显,这可能与互助资金借款额度有限有关,无法满足农户机械化的资本需求。④为农户家庭面临的收入风险提供隐性担保也是互助资金促进贫困村劳动力外流的路径之一,通过为农户提供资金融通渠道,确保农户即使在外流失败的情况下能够通过向互助资金借贷平滑消费和缓解风险冲击。研究结论为探索农村金融供给能否成为进一步促进剩余贫困劳动力转移的契机提供了有理论价值和可操作的视角,未来应继续坚持农村金融改革的步伐,加快金融产品和金融工具创新,不断提高贫困农户的信贷可得性和可持续性收益。     

Policy innovation for technology diffusion: a case-study of Japanese renewable energy public support programs

Due to local scarcity of fossil fuel reserves, deployment of renewable energy has been on the Japanese government energy policy agenda for decades. While a significant amount of government budget was being allocated to renewables Research and Development, in contrast very little attention was paid to public support for renewable energy deployment. Against this background, in 2003, the Japanese government enacted legislation based on the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) scheme, which requires electricity retailers to supply a certain amount of electricity from renewable sources to grid consumers. The RPS legislation had been expected to ensure market efficiency, as well as bringing a steady increase in renewable capacity. Later, in 2009, the feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme was introduced to let electricity utilities purchase electricity generated from renewable energy sources with regulated prices. This paper aims to use the choice of renewable policy as a case-study to understand barriers for policy transfer and innovation, mainly through comparative studies between RPS and FIT in Japan. The result of this study shows that, in Japan, most policy-makers face the ‘lock-in’ of existing technology, which frustrates the deployment of renewable energy. For this reason, there is reluctance to allow experimentation that could promote a shift to other energy sources. In order to achieve the rapid change towards green industry, innovation policy needs to be implemented through effective and efficient methods, such as a carbon tax for fossil fuels; enlargement of renewable energy deployment to sources such as wind, geothermal and solar; and conducting further studies toward public preference and willingness to pay for the new clean energy sources.     

Evaluating intervention options to achieve environmental benefits in the residential sector

Government intervention schemes in the form of policy instruments and financial incentives or rebates can have a major influence on the adoption of technologies by residential consumers to reduce their natural resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the pattern and rate of consumer uptake of voluntary schemes are not always well-understood or easily taken into account in future scenarios analyses. This paper presents an innovative extension of the Bass diffusion model that has been integrated with multi-criteria analysis to enable explicit consideration and balancing of the impacts of technology cost, financial benefits, demographic suitability and household income on the likelihood of adoption. This ‘Intervention Options’ model is formulated into a constrained integer programming problem to allow optimisation of the size and timing of government rebates to maximise adoption rate and, ultimately, environmental benefits. The model’s capability is demonstrated using an Australian case study of 25,000 households, and historical information on the uptake of solar hot water and solar photovoltaic panels in Brisbane, Queensland. Case study results reveal new insights and important context-relevant trends that could assist policy makers to substantially improve the effectiveness of intervention schemes to achieve environmental goals within desired budgets.     

Evaluating households’ preferences regarding reducing power outages in rural areas: cases in the Ganges Floodplain in Bangladesh

This paper investigates household preferences regarding an improved supply of electricity in rural Bangladesh, where the expansion of stable electricity is an urgent policy issue. The paper examines household preferences regarding reductions in the frequency and duration of power outages. It also examines prior notification mechanisms that do not necessarily provide an increased supply of electricity but that allow households to prepare for potential power failures. A questionnaire survey designed as a choice experiment was applied to households to elicit preferences. The econometric analysis reveals that villagers prefer a reduction in both the frequency and duration of power outages and a 1-day prior notification of power outages. There are slight disparities in preferences according to the season and the timing of improvements (e.g., summer or winter and all day or peak hours). Thus, the present study may be beneficial for policymakers when considering the provision of electricity supply improvements in rural areas in exchange for slight increases in electricity tariffs.     

用期货市场思路建立南水北调水市场设想

南水北调是缓解北方水资源危机而实施的大规模调水工程 ,适应社会主义市场经济的要求 ,该工程中水资源配置将采用市场机制运作 ,但由于水价波动决定了价格风险的存在 ,而水价过高将给企业带来成本的提高或利润的下降。为此 ,针对南水北调中的水市场建设 ,尤其是对于城市工业用水 ,本文提出利用期货市场的基本功能来规避水价波动给企业带来的风险 ,有利于增强企业的国际竞争力     

Viability of solar photovoltaics as an electricity generation source for Jordan

Viability of solar photovoltaics as an electricity generation source for Jordan was assessed utilising a proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar photovoltaic power plant. Long‐term (1994–2003) monthly average daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for 24 locations – distributed all over the country – were studied and analysed to assess the distribution of radiation and sunshine duration over Jordan, and formed an input to the RetScreen Software for evaluation and analysis of the proposed plant's electricity production and economic feasibility. It was found that depending on the geographical location, the global solar radiation on horizontal surface varied between 1.51 and 2.46 MWh/m²/year with an overall mean value of 2.01 MWh/m²/year for Jordan. The sunshine duration was found to vary, according to the location, between 8.47 and 9.68 hours/day, with a mean value of 9.07 hours/day and about 3311 sunshine hours annually for Jordan. The annual electricity production of the proposed plant varied depending on the location between 6.886 and 11.919 GWh/year, with a mean value of 9.46 GWh/year. The specific yield varied between 340.9 and 196.9 kWh/m², while the mean value was 270.59 kWh/m². Analysis of the annual electricity production of the plant, the specific yield, besides the economic indicators, i.e. internal rate of return, simple payback period, years to positive cash flow, net present value, annual life cycle saving, benefit/cost ratio, and cost of energy – for all sites – showed that Tafila and Karak are the most suitable sites for the solar photovoltaic power plant's development and Wadi Yabis is the worst. The results also showed that an average of 7414.9 tons of greenhouse gases can be avoided annually utilising the proposed plant for electricity generation at any part of Jordan.     

The accounting method and application of CO2 emissions responsibility by the electricity sector at the provincial level in China

When accounting the CO₂ emissions responsibility of the electricity sector at the provincial level in China,it is of great significance to consider the scope of both producers’ and the consumers’ responsibility,since this will promote fairness in defining emission responsibility and enhance cooperation in emission reduction among provinces.This paper proposes a new method for calculating carbon emissions from the power sector at the provincial level based on the shared responsibility principle and taking into account interregional power exchange.This method can not only be used to account the emission responsibility shared by both the electricity production side and the consumption side,but it is also applicable for calculating the corresponding emission responsibility undertaken by those provinces with net electricity outflow and inflow.This method has been used to account for the carbon emissions responsibilities of the power sector at the provincial level in China since 2011.The empirical results indicate that compared with the production-based accounting method,the carbon emissions of major power-generation provinces in China calculated by the shared responsibility accounting method are reduced by at least 10%,but those of other power-consumption provinces are increased by 20% or more.Secondly,based on the principle of shared responsibility accounting,Inner Mongolia has the highest carbon emissions from the power sector while Hainan has the lowest.Thirdly,four provinces,including Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Hubei and Anhui,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity outflow- 14 million t in 2011,accounting for 74.42% of total carbon emissions from net electricity outflow in China.Six provinces,including Hebei,Beijing,Guangdong,Liaoning,Shandong,and Jiangsu,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity inflow- 11 million t in 2011,accounting for 71.44% of total carbon emissions from net electricity inflow in China.Lastly,this paper has estimated the emission factors of electricity consumption at the provincial level,which can avoid repeated calculations when accounting the emission responsibility of power consumption terminals（e.g.construction,automobile manufacturing and other industries）.In addition,these emission factors can also be used to account the emission responsibilities of provincial power grids.     

Integrated hydro- and wind power generation: a game changer towards environmental flow in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin?

Many renewable resources for the generation of electricity, such as hydropower and wind power, are dependent on climatic factors. Reservoirs have been created to overcome the stochastic nature of river flows and to make water supply more reliable. However, reservoirs are affecting the ecological status of river ecosystems, e.g., by modifying the flow regime, triggering discussions regarding the discharge of reservoirs. In Brazil’s northeast region, the installed capacity for wind power generation has increased substantially in recent years. Setting up a modeling system for simulating wind power and hydropower generation in this study, it is analyzed whether wind power generation, peaking in the dry season, can help to achieve a more environmentally oriented flow regime in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin. Simulated higher discharges from reservoirs during the rainy season and lower discharges during the dry season, representing a more natural flow regime, will reduce hydropower generation in the dry season. Under recent conditions, the resulting gap in electricity generation can only be partially covered by wind power. A large share needs to be generated by thermal power plants or be imported from other regions in Brazil. The planned future increase in installed wind power capacity can change this picture; the demand for electricity generated by thermal power plants and imported will decrease. Adopting an integrated approach for hydropower and wind power generation, the flow regime in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin can be modified to improve the ecological status of the river system.     

城市家庭节能措施选择偏好的联合分析——对山东省济南市居民的抽样调查

节能是提高能效、减少污染、实现能源可持续消费的有效手段。本文以山东省济南市居民节能措施选择的实地调查数据为基础．运用联合分析方法对其所涉及的节能项目、途径、成本和效果诸方面的偏好程度如何影响节能措施的最终选择进行了实证分析．结果显示：居民在进行节能活动时，首要考虑的是节能措施的效果。其次是节能成本和项目。而对节能实现途径不太关注；居民更偏好效果明显、成本低的节能措施；倾向于简单、初级的行为节能方式（改变用能习惯）；在技术节能方式中。更倾向通过购买能效用具而非改造原来用具实现节能。同时．本文对于不同特征家庭能源消费者选择节能措施的偏好差异也进行了分析。从而为政府推进全社会节能提供决策指导。     

Public Participation and Effective Water Governance at the Local Level: A Case Study from a Small Under-Developed Area in Chile

The concept of participation in rural development has been evolutionary for the past two decades with those involved, such as development agencies and governments, particularly in rural water supply, re-evaluating their active role. The move towards effective community participation has encouraged a shift from the traditional top-down to a bottom-up approach whereby there is a decentralisation of unevenly distributed resources and power to empower a community and allow mobility of ‘people participation’. The Molinos water project is the first large-scale development project of its kind introduced into the village of Molinos in an under-developed area of Chile, where there has been no tradition of people participation. The project objective was to implement a low technology, low budget water treatment plant to the village of Molinos. Various aspects have hindered the continued development of the project including both technical and financial. In terms of people participation, the initial approach used was the top-down approach. There was a failure to fully integrate the community or inform the community in a formal manner about the project and consult them regarding key project issues. This case study illustrates that the lack of comprehensive consultation and the low level of participation of the community on the participatory scale does not achieve much in terms of people-centred benefits. For governance at the local level to be effective, participation should be inclusive and communicative so as to enhance transparency throughout the project lifetime. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

An integrated analysis of production costs and net energy balance of biofuels

Up to now, the “low” price of oil has prevented the development of alternative fuels but with the current high price and increasing scarcity, biofuels could become an economically attractive alternative. However, the economic assessment of biofuels has to take into account total production costs, including impact on agriculture, and the energy balance of first generation alternative fuels (biodiesel and bioethanol). Moreover, plans to produce biofuels from agriculture should not be achieved without considering the latest developments and reforms of the common agricultural policy, which promotes a change towards sustainable rural development based on multifunctional agriculture. From the analysis carried out, it emerges that first generation biofuels do not seem to be the best solution because of high production cost, limited land availability and low net energy balance. Furthermore, only a small quantity of biofuels can be produced as alternative to fossil oil because an incremental production will lead to the rising of agri-food prices. Only second generation biofuels could be a possible solution, although they still require much supplementary research and analysis.