Doses to members of the general public and observed effects on biota: Chernobyl Forum update

The Chernobyl Forum was organized by the United Nations to examine the health and environmental effects of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. This paper is concerned with the environmental effects, as determined by Expert Group Environment. The accident resulted in release of a large amount of radioactive materials over a period of 10 days. These materials were deposited throughout Europe with the three more affected countries being Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. More than 5 million persons lived on territories in these countries judged to be contaminated at >37kBqm(-2). Many countermeasures were employed to mitigate the effects of the accident. The collective effective dose to the residents of the contaminated territories is estimated to be about 55,000 person-Sv. Effects on non-human biota were observed that ranged from minor to lethal; the current increase in the number and diversity of species in the most contaminated area is due to absence of human pressure.     

Mapping 137Cs deposition: data validation methods and data interpretation

The "Atlas of caesium deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl accident" was prepared within the framework of the Joint Study Project 6 (JSP6) of the collaborative programme on the consequences of the Chernobyl accident between the European Commission and the Ministries responsible for Chernobyl affairs in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. The radiological data provided by scientific institutes and competent authorities of more than 30 European countries were integrated into an information platform. Data validation and intercomparison were therefore essential before the interpretation of the deposition with the help of isoline maps prepared with a geographic information system (GIS) could be done. The data validation was a two-step procedure: after performing a primary logical consistency check, other techniques based on spatial statistics were used to outline uncertain data. The purpose of this paper is to present these validation methods and to discuss the advantages and constraints of these techniques. Rather than trying to improve the techniques of spatial data analysis, suggestions are made on how an adaptation of the sampling information could improve the final result.     

A review and test of predictive models for the bioaccumulation of radiostrontium in fish

Empirical relations between the ⁹⁰Sr concentration factor (CF) and the calcium concentration in freshwater aquatic systems have previously been determined in studies based on data obtained prior to the Chernobyl accident. The purpose of the present research is to review and compare these models, and to test them against a database of post-Chernobyl measurements from rivers and lakes in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Finland. It was found that two independently developed models, based on pre-Chernobyl empirical data, are in close agreement with each other, and with empirical data. Testing of both models against new data obtained after the Chernobyl accident confirms the models’ predictive ability. An investigation of the influence of fish size on ⁹⁰Sr accumulation showed no significant relationship, though the data set was somewhat limited.     

Short rotation coppice for revaluation of contaminated land.

When dealing with large-scale environmental contamination, as following the Chernobyl accident, changed land use such that the products of the land are radiologically acceptable and sustain an economic return from the land is a potentially sustainable remediation option. In this paper, willow short rotation coppice (SRC) is evaluated on radiological, technical and economic grounds for W. European and Belarus site conditions. Radiocaesium uptake was studied in a newly established and existing SRC. Only for light-texture soils with low soil potassium should cultivation be restricted to soils with contamination levels below 100-370 kBq m-2 given the TFs on these soils (5 x 10(-4) and 2 x 10(-3) m2 kg-1) and considering the Belarus exemption limit for firewood (740 Bq kg-1). In the case of high wood contamination levels (> 1000 Bq kg-1), power plant personnel working in the vicinity of ash conveyers should be subjected to radiation protection measures. For appropriate soil conditions, potential SRC yields are high. In Belarus, most soils are sandy with a low water retention, for which yield estimates are too low to make production profitable without irrigation. The economic viability should be thoroughly calculated for the prevailing conditions. In W. Europe, SRC production or conversion is not profitable without price incentives. For Belarus, the profitability of SRC on the production side largely depends on crop yield and price of the delivered bio-fuel. Large-scale heat conversion systems seem the most profitable and revenue may be considerable. Electricity routes are usually unprofitable. It could be concluded that energy production from SRC is potentially a radiologically and economically sustainable land use option for contaminated agricultural land.     

Field observations of the effects of protracted low levels of ionizing radiation on natural aquatic population by using a cytogenetic tool

In the present study, an effort is attempted to record the impact of chronic radiation on natural aquatic populations exposed to protracted doses (lower if compared to intervention levels but higher if compared to typical background) and to chemical pollution. The methodology is based on the analyses of chromosome aberrations observed in cells. Therefore, some preliminary research results on the cytogenetic effects on aquatic organisms of various taxa, in coastal ecosystems are presented, considering some selective regions of elevated natural gamma radiation and conventional pollution. These areas are the geothermal spring areas in the island of Ikaria-Eastern Aegean Sea and the port of Pireus, in Greece. The data are compared to the findings recorded in some organisms collected from the North Aegean Sea the early period after the Chernobyl accident. With regard to the different species examined, a first evaluation of the results is made using the reported field findings for the wide area of Chernobyl. The environmental assessment of the studied areas in terms of radiation impact is based on the cytogenetic injuries observed, and evidence of ecosystem disturbance is also pointed out. The final environmental assessment based on the quantified effects observed in the organisms from the studied areas takes into account a published conceptual model of zones of radiation dose rates and the resulting organism responses in a step function scale.     

What is “Chernobyl Syndrome?” The Use of Radiophobia in Nuclear Communications

This article examines the use of “radiophobia,” “Chernobyl syndrome,” “irrationality,” and other similar concepts in communications on nuclear issues. Historically, these terms have been used in two ways: to describe psychological effects among people affected by nuclear disasters such as Hiroshima or Chernobyl, and to explain the concerns of the unaffected lay public about radiation or nuclear power projects. The latter was actively used in the Soviet Union and in post-Soviet countries such as Belarus to rejects citizens’ complaints and to denounce the arguments of the anti-nuclear camp. This study argues that although the terms can legitimately be used in many situations, their use in communications about nuclear issues can be problematic.     

Artificial radionuclides in the atmosphere over Lithuania

Measurements of airborne radioactive aerosol concentration were carried out on the basis of 1-3 days samples after the Chernobyl disaster and during the period of 1992-2003. Transport of "hot" particles of different composition resulted in the high activity concentrations of (137)Cs, (238)Pu, (239,240)Pu and (241)Am in the atmosphere in Vilnius at the end of April 1986. The (240)Pu/(239)Pu atom ratio showed clear evidence of non-global plutonium originating from the Chernobyl accident in the atmosphere over Lithuania. The (240)Pu/(239)Pu atom ratio ranged from 0.14 to 0.40 in monthly samples in Vilnius in 1995-2003. An increase in activity concentration of (137)Cs by a factor of 100 (up to 300 microBq/m(3)) was found following forest fires in the Ukraine and Belarus. However, no transport of the Chernobyl plutonium was observed and the (240)Pu/(239)Pu atom ratio in samples collected during the forest fires was found to be 0.229 and 0.185, respectively. The exponential decrease in the (240)Pu/(239)Pu atom ratio from 0.30 to 0.19 (mean values) was observed in 1995-2003.     

Practical improvement of the radiological quality of milk produced by peasant farmers in the territories of Belarus contaminated by the Chernobyl accident. The ETHOS project.

The Chernobyl post-accident situation has highlighted how the sudden emergence of persistent radioactive contamination in the environment is severely affecting the quality of life of the inhabitants in the concerned territories. The management of this situation is complex, mainly conditioned by the ability of the inhabitants themselves to be directly involved in the process of improving their living conditions. In this process, quality of life cannot be restricted solely to the dimension of radiological risk, but needs to encompass the diverse aspects of daily living, including the social, psychological, economic, political and ethical aspects. This paper presents the experience of the involvement of a group of peasant farmers from a village in the Republic of Belarus, in the process of improving the radiological quality of privately produced milk. This experience took place in the context of the ETHOS project, funded by the radiation protection research programme of the European Commission. The principal objective was to implement a complementary approach to the rehabilitation strategies adopted so far in the contaminated territories of the Republic of Belarus. This paper retraces the process of involvement of the inhabitants in a working group. It describes the characterisation of the situation by local actors, the opening of new possible actions to improve the radiological quality of milk at the individual level and the positive consequences at the scale of the village. The ETHOS project also illustrates how the scientific knowledge accumulated over many years since the Chernobyl accident in the field of radiation protection and radioecology can enter into local practices in the form of practical tools, which can be used by the population to produce significant improvements in the radiological situation.     

An assessment of cumulative external doses from Chernobyl fallout for a forested area in Russia using the optically stimulated luminescence from quartz inclusions in bricks

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) has been used for estimation of the accumulated doses in quartz inclusions obtained from two fired bricks, extracted in July 2004 from a building located in the forested surroundings of the recreational area Novie Bobovichi, the Bryansk Region, Russia. The area was significantly contaminated by Chernobyl fallout with initial (137)Cs ground deposition level of approximately 1.1 MBq m(-2). The accumulated OSL doses in sections of the bricks varied from 141 to 207 mGy, of which between 76 and 146 mGy are attributable to Chernobyl fallout. Using the OSL depth-dose profiles obtained from the exposed bricks and the results from a gamma-ray-survey of the area, the Chernobyl-related cumulative gamma-ray dose for a point detector located in free air at a height of 1m above the ground in the study area was estimated to be ca. 240 mGy for the time period starting on 27 April 1986 and ending on 31 July 2004. This result is in good agreement with the result of deterministic modelling of the cumulative gamma-ray dose in free air above undisturbed ground from the Chernobyl source in the Bryansk Region. Over the same time period, the external Chernobyl-related dose via forest pathway for the most exposed individuals (e.g., forest workers) is estimated to be approximately 39 mSv. Prognosis for the external exposure from 1986 to 2056 is presented and compared with the predictions given by other investigators of the region.     

Ecological lessons from the Chernobyl accident

The Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986 not only caused serious ecological problems in both the Ukraine and Belarus, which continue to the present day, but also contaminated a large part of the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. In this paper an overview is given of the latter problems in upland UK, where ecological problems still remain some 17 years after initial contamination. Following deposition of radiocaesium and radioiodine in May 1986, measurements of radioactivity in grass and soil indicated a rapidly declining problem as the radioiodine decayed and the radiocaesium became immobilised by attachment to clay particles. However, these studies, as well as the advice received by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, were based on lowland agricultural soils, with high clay and low organic matter contents. The behaviour of radiocaesium in upland UK turned out to be dominated by high and persistent levels of mobility and bioavailability. This resulted in the free passage of radiocaesium through the food chain and into sheep. Consequently the Ministry banned the sale and movement of sheep over large areas of upland Britain, with bans remaining on some farms to the present day. Present day predictions suggest that these bans will continue in some cases for some years to come. The causes of radiocaesium mobility in upland areas have subsequently been the subject of intense investigation centred around vegetation and, in particular, soil characteristics. Soil types were identified which were particularly vulnerable in this respect and, where these coincided with high levels of deposition, sheep bans tended to be imposed. While much of the earlier work suggested that a low clay content was the main reason for continuing mobility, a very high organic matter content is now also believed to play a major role, this being a characteristic of wet and acidic upland UK soils. The overall message from this affair is the importance of a fundamental understanding of biogeochemical pathways in different ecosystems when attempting to predict the impacts of large-scale contamination.     

Effects of non-human species irradiation after the Chernobyl NPP accident

The area affected by the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 has become a unique test site where long-term ecological and biological consequences of a drastic change in a range of environmental factors as well as trends and intensity of selection are studied in natural settings. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident for biota varied from an enhanced rate of mutagenesis to damage at the ecosystem level. The review comprehensively brings together key data of the long-term studies of biological effects in plants and animals inhabiting over 20 years the Chernobyl NPP zone. The severity of radiation effects was strongly dependent on the dose received in the early period after the accident. The most exposed phytocenoses and soil animals' communities exhibited dose dependent alterations in the species composition and reduction in biological diversity. On the other hand, no decrease in numbers or taxonomic diversity of small mammals even in the most radioactive habitat was shown. In a majority of the studies, in both plant and animal populations from the Chernobyl zone, in the first years after the accident high increases in mutation rates were documented. In most cases the dose-effect relationships were nonlinear and the mutation rates per unit dose were higher at low doses and dose rates. In subsequent years a decline in the radiation background rate occurred faster than reduction in the mutation rate. Plant and animal populations have shown signs of adaptation to chronic exposure. In adaptation to the enhanced level of exposure an essential role of epigenetic mechanisms of gene expression regulation was shown. Based on the Chernobyl NPP accident studies, in the present review attempts were made to assess minimum doses at which ecological and biological effects were observed.     

Radiation effects in wild terrestrial vertebrates - the EPIC collection

The paper presents data on radiation effects in populations of wild vertebrate animals inhabiting contaminated terrestrial ecosystems. The data were extracted from the database "Radiation effects on biota", compiled within the framework of the EC Project EPIC (2000-2003). The data collection, based on publications in Russian, demonstrates radiation effects in the areas characterized with high levels of radionuclides (Kyshtym radioactive trace; "spots" of enhanced natural radioactivity in the Komi region of Russia; territories contaminated from the Chernobyl fallout). The data covers a wide range of exposures from acute accidental irradiation to lifetime exposures at relatively low dose rates. Radiation effects include mortality, changes in reproduction, decrease of health, ecological effects, cytogenetic effects, adaptation to radiation, and others. Peculiarities of radiation effects caused by different radionuclides are described, also the severity of effects as they appear in different organisms (e.g. mice, frogs, birds, etc.).     

Validation of the CANDY model with Russian long-term experiments

The CANDY model has been qualitatively assessed for simulating long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon and tested against different long-term experiments representing various land uses and geographical sites, but never before against conditions of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Our goal was to simulate long-term trends in soil organic carbon for the long-term experiments of Barybino (Moscow region, Russia), Grakov (Kharkow region, Ukraine) and Yachenka (Minsk region, Belarus) representing the predominant arable soil types, climate conditions and typical management strategies for the investigated arable areas. The fit of modelled results to the observed data was evaluated to assess the suitability of the model for further applications in the FSU. The crop parameters of the CANDY model had to be adapted to the low yields observed under the Russian site conditions resulting in a higher sensitivity to crop-derived carbon input as a function of yield. The results show that the approach of treating the organic carbon situated in micro pores as inert, is an applicable solution for simulating soil carbon dynamics under Russian conditions. This evaluation of CANDY, against long-term experiments from Russia, gives confidence for its wider application in this region.     

Remediation strategies for rural territories contaminated by the Chernobyl accident.

The objective of the present paper is to derive remediation strategies for rural settlements contaminated by the Chernobyl accident in which annual doses to a critical group still exceed 1 mSv. Extensive radioecological data have been collected for 70 contaminated settlements. A dose model based on these data resulted in estimates that are on average close to and a bit less than the official dose estimates ('catalogue doses') published by the responsible Ministries of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. For eight remedial actions that can be applied on a large scale, effectiveness and costs have been assessed in light of their dependence on soil type, contamination level and on the degree of previous application of remedial actions. Remediation strategies were derived for each of the 70 settlements by choosing remedial actions with lowest costs per averted dose and with highest degree of acceptability among the farmers and local authorities until annual doses are assessed to fall below 1 mSv. The results were generalised to 11 contamination/internal-dose categories. The total numbers of rural inhabitants and privately owned cows in the three countries distributed over the categories were determined and predicted until the year 2015. Based on these data, costs and averted doses were derived for the whole affected population. The main results are (i) about 2000 Sv can be averted at relatively low costs, (ii) the emphasis on reducing external exposures should be increased, (iii) radical improvement of hay-land and meadows and application of Prussian blue to cows should be performed on a large scale if annual doses of 1 mSv are an aim to be achieved, (iv) additional remedial actions of importance are fertilising of potato fields, distribution of food monitors and restriction of mushroom consumption, and (v) for inhabitants of some settlements (in total about 8600) annual doses cannot be reduced below 1 mSv by the remedial actions considered.     

Decline of spruce (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea abies</Emphasis>) in forests of Belarus

The decline of spruce stands in Belarus has been analyzed in relation to the dynamics of climatic variables. The results show that this process is correlated with the amount of precipitation, moisture deficit, index of aridity, relative air humidity, and evapotranspiration. Frosts at the onset of the growing season enhance tree die-off, while increase in cloud cover has a favorable effect on the state of spruce stands. Damage to trees occurs mainly in areas with elevated and convex topography and slopes of southwestern aspect, increasing on steeper slopes. The level of die-off is most closely correlated with conditions of the previous year, which is explained by the impact of biological factors (pest insects and phytopathogens) on tree stands already affected by water stress. The decline of spruce stands on a mass scale is also observed in neighboring regions of Russia and counties of East Europe, which is evidence for a low adaptability of spruce to current climate change, including the increasing frequency and severity of dry periods.     

A prognostic estimation of the area contaminated with alpha-emitting transuranium isotopes in Belarus following the Chernobyl accident

As a result of the Chernobyl accident, some regions of Belarus have been contaminated with the plutonium isotopes (238,239,240,241)Pu. Considering the importance of the environmental impact of the alpha-emitting radionuclides we have carried out a prognostic estimation of the area contaminated with (238,239,240)Pu and (241)Am (the latter being a decay product of (241)Pu) in Belarus. The calculations were made using measurements of (238,239,240)Pu activity concentrations in soil samples from about 600 settlements in the affected region, together with the estimated activity ratio A((241)Am)/A((238,239,240)Pu). The area contaminated with alpha-emitting transuranium isotopes predicted for the year 2006 has been compared with that estimated for 1986. The results show that by 2006, the area of inhabited districts where contamination with (238,239,240)Pu and (241)Am exceeds the threshold level of 740 Bq/m(2), will be 3.7 times larger, reaching approximately 3.5 x10(3)km(2). Of this, almost 20% will have a contamination level of 1850--3700 Bq/m(2).     

Probabilistic indicators of atmospheric transport for regional monitoring and emergency preparedness systems

In this paper, following a methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the Nordic Arctic Research Programme, several probabilistic indicators to evaluate the risk site possible impact on the geographical regions, territories, countries, counties, cities, etc., due to atmospheric transport from the risk site region were suggested. These indicators-maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, and typical transport time-were constructed by applying statistical methods and using a dataset of isentropic trajectories originated over the selected nuclear risk site (Ignalina nuclear power plant, Lithuania) during 1991-1996. For this site, the areas enclosed by isolines of the maximum possible impact zone and maximum reaching distance indicators are equal to 42 x 10(4) and 703 x 10(4) km(2), respectively. The maximum possible impact zone's boundaries are more extended in the southeast sector from the site and include, in particular, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and several western regions of Russia. The maximum reaching distance's boundaries are twice more extended in the eastern direction from the site (reaching the Caspian Sea) compared with the western direction. The typical transport time to reach the southern territories of Sweden and Finland, northern regions of Ukraine, and northeast of Poland is 1 day. During this time, the atmospheric transport could typically occur over the Baltic States, Belarus, and western border regions of Russia, and central aquatoria of the Baltic Sea. Detailed analysis of temporal patterns for these indicators showed importance of the seasonal variability.     

Use of 129I and 137Cs in soils for the estimation of 131I deposition in Belarus as a result of the Chernobyl accident

Using radioactivity measurements for 131I and 137Cs and nuclear activation analysis (NAA) or accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for 129I, ratios of 131I/137Cs and 129I/137Cs have been determined in soils from Belarus. We find that the pre-Chernobyl ratio of 129I/137Cs in Belarus is significantly larger than expected from nuclear weapons fallout. For the Chernobyl accident, our results support the hypothesis that there was relatively little fractionation of iodine and caesium during migration and deposition of the radioactive cloud. For sites having 137Cs > 300 Bq/kg, 129I can potentially give more reliable retroactive estimates of Chernobyl 131I deposition. However, our results suggest that 137Cs can also give reasonably good (+/-50%) estimates for 131I in Belarus.     

Laboratory experiments to predict changes in radiocaesium root uptake after flooding events

Changes in soil solution composition after a flooding event were hypothesised to be one of the key factors in explaining changes in radiocaesium incorporation in the food chain in the areas affected by the Chernobyl accident. A laboratory methodology was set up to monitor changes in the soil solution composition after a sequence of flooding cycles. Experiments were performed using column and batch approaches on test soils with contrasting initial soil solution composition (high and low initial concentrations of K+). Results from column experiments indicated a potential increase in NH(4)(+) concentrations, a parameter which could lead to an increase in the radiocaesium root uptake. Batch results in the soil with high initial K+ concentration showed that after a number of flooding cycles, especially for high ratios of flooding solution/mass of soil, K+ concentration decreased sometimes below a threshold value (around 0.5-1 mmol l(-1)), a fact that could lead to an increase in radiocaesium transfer. For the soils with a low initial K+ concentration, the flooding solution increased K+ and NH(4)(+) values in the soil solution. The comparison of test soils with soils from Ukraine areas affected by flooding showed that the final stage in soil solution composition was similar in both cases, regardless of the initial composition of the soil solution. Moreover, the comparison with unflooded soils from the same area showed that potential changes in other soil parameters, such as (137)Cs activity concentration, clay content, and radiocaesium interception potential, RIP (a parameter that estimates the radiocaesium specific sorption capacity of a soil), should also be monitored for additional effects due to the flooding event. Therefore, the changes in the root uptake would depend on the resulting situation from changes in RIP, K+ and NH(4)(+) values in the soil solution.     

Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition.