Model testing using data on 131I released from Hanford

The Hanford test scenario described an accidental release of 131I to the environment from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant in September 1963. Based on monitoring data collected after the release, this scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of BIOMASS to test models typically used in dose reconstructions. The primary exposure pathway in terms of contribution to human doses was ingestion of contaminated milk and vegetables. Predicted mean doses to the thyroid of reference individuals from ingestion of 131I ranged from 0.0001 to 0.8 mSv. For one location, predicted doses to the thyroids of two children with high milk consumption ranged from 0.006 to 2 mSv. The predicted deposition at any given location varied among participants by a factor of 5-80. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of assessment methods and conceptual approaches, testing model predictions against measurements, and identifying the most important contributors to uncertainty in the assessment result. Key factors affecting predictions included the approach to handling incomplete data, interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, adjustment of models for site-specific conditions, and treatment of uncertainties.     

Reconstruction of (131)I radioactive contamination in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident using atmospheric transport modelling

The evaluation of (131)I air and ground contamination field formation in the territory of Ukraine was made using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The (131)I atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The airborne (131)I concentration and ground deposition fields were calculated as the database for subsequent thyroid dose reconstruction for inhabitants of radioactive contaminated regions. The small-scale deposition field variability is assessed using data of (137)Cs detailed measurements in the territory of Ukraine. The obtained results are compared with available data of radioiodine daily deposition measurements made at the network of meteorological stations in Ukraine and data of the assessments of (131)I soil contamination obtained from the (129)I measurements.     

Reconstruction of 131I radioactive contamination in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident using atmospheric transport modelling

The evaluation of ¹³¹I air and ground contamination field formation in the territory of Ukraine was made using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian–Eulerian DIffusion model). The ¹³¹I atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The airborne ¹³¹I concentration and ground deposition fields were calculated as the database for subsequent thyroid dose reconstruction for inhabitants of radioactive contaminated regions. The small-scale deposition field variability is assessed using data of ¹³⁷Cs detailed measurements in the territory of Ukraine. The obtained results are compared with available data of radioiodine daily deposition measurements made at the network of meteorological stations in Ukraine and data of the assessments of ¹³¹I soil contamination obtained from the ¹²⁹I measurements.     

Use of 129I and 137Cs in soils for the estimation of 131I deposition in Belarus as a result of the Chernobyl accident

Using radioactivity measurements for 131I and 137Cs and nuclear activation analysis (NAA) or accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for 129I, ratios of 131I/137Cs and 129I/137Cs have been determined in soils from Belarus. We find that the pre-Chernobyl ratio of 129I/137Cs in Belarus is significantly larger than expected from nuclear weapons fallout. For the Chernobyl accident, our results support the hypothesis that there was relatively little fractionation of iodine and caesium during migration and deposition of the radioactive cloud. For sites having 137Cs > 300 Bq/kg, 129I can potentially give more reliable retroactive estimates of Chernobyl 131I deposition. However, our results suggest that 137Cs can also give reasonably good (+/-50%) estimates for 131I in Belarus.     

Monitoring iodine-129 in air and milk samples collected near the Hanford Site: an investigation of historical iodine monitoring data

While other research has reported on the concentrations of (129)I in the environment surrounding active nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities, there is a shortage of information regarding how the concentrations change once facilities close. At the Hanford Site, the Plutonium-Uranium Extraction (PUREX) chemical separation plant was operating between 1983 and 1990, during which time (129)I concentrations in air and milk were measured. After the cessation of chemical processing, plant emissions decreased 2.5 orders of magnitude over an 8-year period. An evaluation of (129)I and (127)I concentration data in air and milk spanning the PUREX operation and post-closure period was conducted to compare the changes in environmental levels. Measured concentrations over the monitoring period were below the levels that could result in a potential annual human dose greater than 1 mSv. There was a measurable difference in the measured air concentrations of (129)I at different distances from the source, indicating a distinct Hanford fingerprint. Correlations between stack emissions of (129)I and concentrations in air and milk indicate that atmospheric emissions were the major source of (129)I measured in environmental samples. The measured concentrations during PUREX operations were similar to observations made around a fuel reprocessing plant in Germany. After the PUREX Plant stopped operating, (129)I concentration measurements made upwind of Hanford were similar to the results from Seville, Spain.     

Validation of I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of ¹³¹I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of ¹³⁷Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and ¹³¹I/¹³⁷Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of ¹³¹I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of ¹³¹I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions.A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten.     

Imprecision of dose predictions for radionuclides released to the environment: An application of a Monte Carlo simulation technique

An evaluation of the imprecision in dose predictions has been performed using current dose assessment models and present knowledge of the variability or uncertainty in model parameter values. The propagation of parameter uncertainties is demonstrated using a Monte Carlo technique for elemental ¹³¹I transported via the pasture-cow-milk-child pathway. The results indicate that when site-specific information is not available the imprecision inherent in the predictions for this pathway is potentially large. Generally, the 99th percentile in thyroid dose for children was predicted to be approximately an order of magnitude greater than the median value. The potential consequences of the imprecision in dose for radiation protection purposes are discussed.     

三峡工程运用后洞庭湖水沙情势变化及其影响初步分析

采用原型资料分析、长河段一维数学模型计算等手段，分析和预测了三峡工程运用对洞庭湖水沙与冲淤影响，研究了三峡工程运用对洞庭湖出口水位的影响，在此基础上初步分析了三峡工程运用对湖区防洪与生态环境影响。研究成果表明：三峡水库运用后30 a末，荆江三口年均分流量和分沙量比多年平均值分别减少43%和73%，三口分流道的河床相应发生冲淤变化；三峡工程运用后，受荆江三口分流比减少影响，洞庭湖区泥沙淤积显著减少，对增强洞庭湖区调蓄功能、延长洞庭湖寿命有利；受三峡水库调度运用与长江干流河道冲刷影响，洞庭湖出口水位以下降为主，汛期水位的下降将对湖区防洪有利，而枯期水位的下降将对湖区水资源利用及生态环境带来一定不利影响。     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

Reconstruction of atmospheric concentrations and deposition of uranium and decay products released from the former uranium mill at Uravan, Colorado

Radionuclide concentrations in air from uranium milling emissions were estimated for the town of Uravan, Colorado, USA and the surrounding area for a 49-yr period of mill operations beginning in 1936 and ending in 1984. Milling processes with the potential to emit radionuclides to the air included crushing and grinding of ores; conveyance of ore; ore roasting, drying, and packaging of the product (U(3)O(8)); and fugitive dust releases from ore piles, tailings' piles, and roads. The town of Uravan is located in a narrow canyon formed by the San Miguel River in western Colorado. Atmospheric transport modeling required a complex terrain model. Because historical meteorological data necessary for a complex terrain model were lacking, meteorological instruments were installed, and relevant data were collected for 1 yr. Monthly average dispersion and deposition factors were calculated using the complex terrain model, CALPUFF. Radionuclide concentrations in air and deposition on ground were calculated by multiplying the estimated source-specific release rate by the dispersion or deposition factor. Time-dependent resuspension was also included in the model. Predicted concentrations in air and soil were compared to measurements from continuous air samplers from 1979 to 1986 and to soil profile sampling performed in 2006. The geometric mean predicted-to-observed ratio for annual average air concentrations was 1.25 with a geometric standard deviation of 1.8. Predicted-to-observed ratios for uranium concentrations in undisturbed soil ranged from 0.67 to 1.22. Average air concentrations from 1936 to 1984 in housing blocks ranged from about 2.5 to 6 mBq m(-3) for (238)U and 1.5 to 3.5 mBq m(-3) for (230)Th, (226)Ra, and (210)Pb.     

基于改进粒子群算法和元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟——以南京为例

为合理利用多智能体算法解决城市扩张动态模拟问题,基于地理学理论和社会学规律对粒子群算法进行有针对性的改进,提出分段式粒子群算法(SPSO),并结合元胞自动机模拟复杂时空过程的能力,构建出适用于城市扩张模拟的地理元胞自动机SPSO-CA。在SPSO-CA中我们利用多时像的土地利用数据、交通路网数据和地形数据,挖掘出1995~2000年南京城市扩张的土地转换规则。再由此规则实现1995~2008年的南京市城市扩张过程的动态模拟。最后对比SPSO-CA、PSOCA及NULL模型结果得:SPSO-CA总精度86.3%,Kappa系数为0.792,Moran’s I为0.078,PSO-CA总精度83.6%,Kappa系数为0.755,Moran’s I为0.054,NULL模型总精度81.9%,Kappa系数为0.741,真实的Moran’s I为0.072。这表明无论是总精度还是空间一致性,SPSO-CA都优于PSO-CA和NULL模型,即用SPSO-CA模拟城市扩张是可行的。     

A new approach to assessment and management of the impact from medical liquid radioactive waste

The Swedish regulations concerning disposal of clinical radioactive waste are currently under revision and a graded approach is proposed for risk limitation purposes. To assist the revision procedures, a screening study was performed to estimate public exposures from liquid releases from hospitals to public sewers. The results showed that doses to sewage workers were above the dose constraint of 100muSva(-1) especially for (131)I and (99m)Tc. Hence, a dynamic model, LUCIA, was developed for realistic assessments in which radionuclide transportation in sewers was modelled. Probabilistic simulations were performed to obtain probability distributions of radionuclide concentrations in sludge. Concurrently, estimates of the effective doses to sewage workers decreased significantly and were below 10muSva(-1) except for (111)In and (131)I. However, the Kd-coefficients representing the partition of radioactivity between water and sludge in sewers are highly uncertain for (111)In. As shown by sensitivity studies, these values are the major determinant of the exposures in sewers.     

Cost-effective selection of sampling frequencies for regulatory water quality monitoring

A dynamic programming code was formulated for the purpose of assigning sampling frequencies throughout a regulatory water quality monitoring network in order to optimize the statistical performance of the network while operating within a fixed budgetary constraint. The statistical objective is to achieve the greatest possible station to station uniformity in confidence interval widths about annual geometric means of the measured water quality variables and to keep the average confidence width reasonably small. The objective function is the sum (over several selected variables and all stations) of the normalized positive deviations of the predicted confidence interval widths from preselected design confidence interval widths. The code was designed to account for the effects of deterministic seasonal variation and serial correlation of the water quality observations by incorporating the results of the time series analysis of historical quality data. The economic constraint ensures that the annual operating cost of the system, including direct costs of travel and laboratory analysis, will not exceed the allowable budget. As an example situation, the dynamic programming code was used to assign sampling frequencies to the nine stations in Illinois from which historical quality data had been obtained and analyzed. Using five design quality constituents and representative travel and laboratory costs, an “optimal” design was produced. The optimal design achieved a 10% improvement in uniformity (standard deviation) of confidence interval widths when compared to a more traditional design based on the same budget and using identical sampling frequencies at every station.     

Medical radioisotopes in the environment – following the pathway from patient to river sediment

Motivated by the detection of ¹³¹I in river sediment in routine long-term surveillance samples, a systematic short-term study of the wastewater treatment chain was planned and conducted. Inflow, effluent and primary sludge were collected on a daily basis during two weeks at a regional wastewater treatment plant. Samples were investigated by gamma spectroscopy. Four medically used isotopes could be identified (¹³¹I and ^99mTc regularly, ¹⁵³Sm and ¹²³I sporadically). The concentration levels coincide well with literature data for ¹³¹I, and with our own long-term data for ¹³¹I and ^99mTc for the same plant. Cosmogenic ⁷Be activity in primary sludge correlated well with rainfall intensity. Surface sediment was sampled at low tide at both shores of the river, up- and downstream of the plant. ¹³¹I was identified in all samples, with a sharp maximum (about 100 Bq kg⁻¹ d.m.) at the discharge point of the plant and lower levels elsewhere, decreasing monotonically in downstream direction. ⁷Be and ¹³⁷Cs showed the same behaviour, but no peak at the discharge point. Predictions from simple equilibrium models for the transport and sedimentation of ¹³¹I show good agreement with the experimental data and suggest that the wastewater treatment plant is the main source for this isotope.     

The geographic distribution of radionuclide deposition across the continental US from atmospheric nuclear testing

For the first time, calculations for the more than 3000 counties of the US have been completed that estimate the average deposition density (Bq m(-2)) of more than 40 radionuclides in fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted in the US (1951-1962) and 19 radionuclides from tests conducted elsewhere in the world (1952-1963). The geographic pattern of deposition across the US, as well as the amount of fallout deposited, varied significantly depending on whether the tests were conducted within or outside of the US. Fallout deposited from the Nevada Test Site (NTS) varied geographically as a result of dispersion and dilution in the atmosphere, the wind patterns following each test, and the occurrence of localized rainfall events. In general, states immediately east of the NTS received the highest deposition from tests conducted there. In contrast, the variation in deposition across the country from global fallout was less than for NTS fallout primarily reflecting variations in annual precipitation across larger regions. Hence, in the eastern and mid-western US, where rainfall is above the national average, higher levels of global fallout were deposited than in the more arid southwestern states. This paper presents a summary of the methods used and findings of our studies on fallout from NTS and global fallout, with emphasis on two of the most important radionuclides, (131)I and (137)Cs.     

Forecasting China’s primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization, and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from 1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.     

A comparison of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems.

The predictions of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems (FOA, LOGNAT and FORESTLAND) were compared. The scenario for the model-model comparison consisted of an acute dry deposition of 137Cs over a coniferous forest. The model predictions were subsequently compared (model-data comparison) with values derived from experimental data measured in forests of the Bryansk region in Russia that were contaminated by the Chernobyl accident and that have similar characteristics to the forests described in the scenario. The predictions of radiocaesium levels in the litter-soil layer, berries, needles, wood, whole tree and moose made with the models were in relatively good agreement with each other (within a factor of 1.4-2.9). The best agreement was observed for berries and moose and the worst for wood. There was also good agreement between the model predictions for the same variables and the experimental data (within a factor of 1.2 3.2). In this case, the best agreement was observed for the litter-soil layer and the worst for wood and the whole tree. Overall, at least for the studied scenario and for the first 10 years after deposition, any of the models can be used if the final aim is to estimate average concentrations in different forest components. The agreement between the model predictions worsens with time and there were differences in the form of the time dependencies predicted by the models, especially for wood. This may lead to larger differences between the model predictions and the experimental data for times beyond the period for which data were available for comparison (10 years after the deposition).     

Probabilistic risk assessment for long-range atmospheric transport of radionuclides

A simplified means of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for long-range atmospheric transport based on a K-diffusion model is presented. In a case study, model parameters are estimated by comparing with the results of long-range atmospheric dispersion model calculations using one-year numerical weather prediction model data. It is found that the estimated ensemble mean provides a reasonable first approximation to the total dry and wet deposition from the one-year continuous release.     

Dose assessment for marine biota and humans from discharge of (131)I to the marine environment and uptake by algae in Sydney, Australia

Iodine-131 reaches the marine environment through its excretion to the sewer by nuclear medicine patients followed by discharge through coastal and deepwater outfalls. ¹³¹I has been detected in macroalgae, which bio-accumulate iodine, growing near the coastal outfall of Cronulla sewage treatment plant (STP) since 1995. During this study, ¹³¹I levels in liquid effluent and sludge from three Sydney STPs as well as in macroalgae (Ulva sp. and Ecklonia radiata) growing near their shoreline outfalls were measured. Concentration factors of 176 for Ulva sp. and 526 for E. radiata were derived. Radiation dose rates to marine biota from ¹³¹I discharged to coastal waters calculated using the ERICA dose assessment tool were below the ERICA screening level of 10 μGy/hr. Radiation dose rates to humans from immersion in seawater or consumption of Ulva sp. containing ¹³¹I were three and two orders of magnitude below the IAEA screening level of 10 μSv/year, respectively.