A model for radiological consequences of nuclear power plant operational atmospheric releases

A dynamic dose and risk assessment model is developed to estimate radiological consequences of atmospheric emissions from nuclear power plants. Internal exposure via inhalation and ingestion, external exposure from clouds and radioactivity deposited on the ground are included in the model. The model allows to simulate interregional moves of people and multi-location food supply in the computational domain. Any long-range atmospheric dispersion model which yields radionuclide concentrations in air and on the ground at predetermined time intervals can easily be integrated into the model. The software developed is validated against radionuclide concentrations measured in different environmental media and dose values estimated after the Chernobyl accident. Results obtained using the model compare well with dose estimates and activities measured in foodstuffs and feedstuffs.     

The influence of geographic location on population exposure to emissions from power plants throughout China

This analysis seeks to evaluate the influence of emission source location on population exposure in China to fine particles and sulfur dioxide. We use the concept of intake fraction, defined as the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population. We select 29 power-plant sites throughout China and estimate annual average intake fractions at each site, using identical source characteristics to isolate the influence of geographic location. In addition, we develop regression models to interpret the intake fraction values and allow for extrapolation to other sites. To model the concentration increase due to emissions from selected power plants, we used a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. Primary fine particles have the highest average intake fraction (1 x 0(-5)), followed by sulfur dioxide (5 x 10(-6)), sulfate from sulfur dioxide (4 x 10(-6)), and nitrate from nitrogen oxides (4 x 10(-6)). For all pollutants, the intake fractions span approximately an order of magnitude across sites. In the regression analysis, the independent variables are meteorological proxies (such as climate region and precipitation) and population at various distances from the source. We find that population terms can explain a substantial percentage of variability in the intake fraction for all pollutants (R(2) between 0.86 and 0.95 across pollutants), with a significant modifying influence of meteorological regime. Near-source population is more important for primary coarse particles while population at medium to long distance is more important for primary fine particles and secondary particles. A significant portion of intake fraction (especially for secondary particles and primary fine particles) occurs beyond 500 km of the source, emphasizing the need for detailed long-range dispersion modeling. These findings demonstrate that intake fractions for power plants in China can be estimated with reasonable precision and summarized using simple regression models. The results should be useful for informing future decisions about power-plant locations and controls.     

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System for dose assessment in the early stage of accidental releases to the atmosphere

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System (BERS) is being developed in the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology since 1994. BERS is based on numerical weather forecast meteorological information and a numerical long-range dispersion model accounting for the transport, dispersion, chemical and radioactive transformations of pollutants. In the present paper, the further development of this system for a mixture of radioactive gaseous and aerosol pollutants is described. The basic module for the BERS, the numerical dispersion model EMAP, is upgraded with a “dose calculation block”. Two scenarios for hypothetical accidental atmospheric releases from two NPPs, one in Western, and the other in Eastern Europe, are numerically simulated. The effective doses from external irradiation, from air submersion and ground shinning, effective dose from inhalation and absorbed dose by thyroid gland formed by 37 different radionuclides, significant for the early stage of a nuclear accident, are calculated as dose fields for both case studies and discussed.     

Influence of climate on the atmospheric radiocarbon concentration

In this paper, the climate effect on the atmospheric radiocarbon concentration is estimated using the data, derived by using dendrochronologically dated tree ring samples, on sunspot number and global surface temperature during 1650–1800 A.D.; however, in order to use the data as a record of changes in radiocarbon production rate or cosmic ray intensity, the variations due to the geochemical process must be eliminated. The estimated influence of climate on the atmospheric radiocarbon concentration is 3–5 times greater than the direct contribution of the change of radiocarbon concentration through a Maunder minimum. The influence of climate on the atmospheric radiocarbon concentration through a transfer rate of CO₂ between atmosphere and ocean was estimated at a rate of −13% per degree.The elimination of variations caused by climate and sunspot activities from the variations in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration gives a long time scale trend having a minimum and maximum which occur in about the seventh century A.D. and the sixth millennium suggesting a good correlation between this trend of variation and paleogeomagnetic data.     

Inverse modeling of Asian Rn flux using surface air Rn concentration

When used with an atmospheric transport model, the ²²²Rn flux distribution estimated in our previous study using soil transport theory caused underestimation of atmospheric ²²²Rn concentrations as compared with measurements in East Asia. In this study, we applied a Bayesian synthesis inverse method to produce revised estimates of the annual ²²²Rn flux density in Asia by using atmospheric ²²²Rn concentrations measured at seven sites in East Asia. The Bayesian synthesis inverse method requires a prior estimate of the flux distribution and its uncertainties. The atmospheric transport model MM5/HIRAT and our previous estimate of the ²²²Rn flux distribution as the prior value were used to generate new flux estimates for the eastern half of the Eurasian continent dividing into 10 regions.The ²²²Rn flux densities estimated using the Bayesian inversion technique were generally higher than the prior flux densities. The area-weighted average ²²²Rn flux density for Asia was estimated to be 33.0 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹, which is substantially higher than the prior value (16.7 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹). The estimated ²²²Rn flux densities decrease with increasing latitude as follows: Southeast Asia (36.7 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹); East Asia (28.6 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹) including China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; and Siberia (14.1 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹). Increase of the newly estimated fluxes in Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia from the prior ones contributed most significantly to improved agreement of the model-calculated concentrations with the atmospheric measurements. The sensitivity analysis of prior flux errors and effects of locally exhaled ²²²Rn showed that the estimated fluxes in Northern and Central China, Korea, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia were robust, but that in Central Asia had a large uncertainty.     

Modelling the environmental fate of the polybrominated diphenyl ethers

In response to growing alarm over the occurrence of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in remote regions, this study considers their physical chemistry, environmental partitioning and considerations regarding potential for long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT). Internally consistent physical-chemical property data are presented for five representative congeners (PBDE-15, -28, -47, -99, -153) and used in a multimedia modelling approach. Results of the Level II model indicate that PBDEs will largely partition to organic carbon in soil and sediment and that their persistence will be strongly influenced by degradation rates in these media that are not well known. TaPL3 model estimates of their characteristic travel distance (CTD) suggest limited LRAT potential. The LRAT is also evaluated qualitatively, in terms of surface-air exchange behaviour. PBDEs are shown to be sensitive to seasonally and diurnally fluctuating temperatures. When vegetation is included in the model, 50% of the total mass of PBDE-47 deposited to vegetation returns to the atmosphere, suggesting that it may migrate through a series of deposition/volatilisation hops. Key data that needs to be identified in this evaluation include a better understanding of air-surface exchange, particularly to foliage, and measurements of degradation rates in soil, sediment and vegetation.     

Heavy metals monitoring at a Mediterranean natural ecosystem of Central Italy. Trends in different environmental matrixes

The study deals with the evaluation of the impact of heavy metal pollution on a Mediterranean natural ecosystem, and presents the results derived from a monitoring of heavy metals in different environmental matrixes (atmospheric dry depositions, suspended particulate matter (SPM) and stemflow of forest trees). Two sites in Castelporziano Presidential Estate (Rome), one internal and one near the sea-side, were chosen in order to assess the differences in pollutant load. Results showed that heavy metal contamination can arise from local anthropogenic activities, in particular road traffic, and long-range pollution, from industrial and artisan activities near Rome.     

Sources and remediation techniques for mercury contaminated soil

Mercury (Hg) in soils has increased by a factor of 3 to 10 in recent times mainly due to combustion of fossil fuels combined with long-range atmospheric transport processes. Other sources as chlor-alkali plants, gold mining and cement production can also be significant, at least locally. This paper summarizes the natural and anthropogenic sources that have contributed to the increase of Hg concentration in soil and reviews major remediation techniques and their applications to control soil Hg contamination. The focus is on soil washing, stabilisation/solidification, thermal treatment and biological techniques; but also the factors that influence Hg mobilisation in soil and therefore are crucial for evaluating and optimizing remediation techniques are discussed. Further research on bioremediation is encouraged and future study should focus on the implementation of different remediation techniques under field conditions.     

区域大气环境容量与基础工业布局研究──以镇江为例

大气环境容量是工业布局的影响因素之一。基于大气科学理论及运筹学的线性优化，创建了一个由三维中央尺度风场动力学模式、三维大气扩散数值模式及线性优化容量模式构成的动态优化区域大气环境容量模拟系统，并用该系统就镇江市区的大气环境容量及各污染源的最优排污量进行了计算，由此对镇江市现有重点污染企业的最优排污量及发展提出意见，并对未来基础工业的布局提供依据。该模拟系统具有普适性，故只要收集到模式所需要的长江沿岸地区的地理、气象及污染源资料，即可计算沿江地区的大气环境容量及基础工业企业的布局与规模，为长江产业带建设提供科学依据。     

Plutonium and americium inventories in atmospheric fallout and sediment cores from Blelham Tarn, Cumbria (UK)

The objective of this paper is to report on the results of a study of 238Pu, 239 + 240Pu and 241Am inventories onto Blelham Tarn in Cumbria (UK). The atmospheric fallout inventory was obtained by analysing soil cores and the results are in good agreement with the literature: 101 Bq m(-2) for 239 + 240Pu; 4.5 Bq m(-2) for 238Pu and 37 Bq m(-2) for 241Am. The sediment core inventory for the whole lake is compared to the atmospheric fallout inventory. The sediment activity is 60-80% higher than the estimated fallout activity, showing a catchment area contribution and in particular the stream input.     

Association between prenatal exposure to perfluorinated compounds and symptoms of infections at age 1–4 years among 359 children in the Odense Child Cohort

IntroductionPerfluorinated alkylated substances (PFAS) are persistent industrial chemicals that have resulted in global environmental exposures. Previous epidemiological studies have reported possible effects on the immune system after developmental PFAS exposure, but the possible impact on childhood infectious disease is unclear.ObjectivesTo investigate the association between prenatal exposure to PFAS and symptoms of infections at age 1–4 years.MethodsThe Odense Child Cohort is an on-going prospective study on children's health, where serum concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) were measured in 649 pregnant women before gestational week 16. Of these women, 359 reported on symptoms of infection in their child every two weeks for a one-year period. The association between prenatal exposure to PFAS and the symptoms was estimated using a logistic regression model and a negative binomial regression model. For the latter, the outcome was reported as an incidence rate-ratio (IRR), and all models were adjusted for maternal age, educational level, parity and child age.ResultsOn average, the children experienced symptoms of infection 23% of the time during one year. PFOS exposure in the high tertile compared to the low tertile was associated with a statistically significant increased proportion of days with fever (IRR: 1.65 (95% CI: 1.24, 2.18), P-trend < 0.001) and an increased odds of experiencing days with fever above the median (OR: 2.35 (95% CI: 1.31, 4.11). The latter tendency was also apparent for PFOA (OR: 1.97 (95% CI: 1.07, 3.62). Further, higher concentrations of PFOS and PFOA tended to increase the number of episodes of co-occurrence of fever and coughing and fever and nasal discharge during the one-year study period.ConclusionWe found a positive association between prenatal exposure to PFOS and PFOA and the prevalence of fever, which may be a sensitive marker of infection. This finding is in agreement with an immunotoxic effect of prenatal exposure to PFAS. The wider implications for childhood infectious disease deserve attention.     

Costs and practicability of clean feeding of dairy cattle during radioactive contamination of grasslands

Both the farm-specific and regional costs of clean feeding as a countermeasure to reduce ingestion of contaminated grass when there is insufficient supply of other types of roughage were estimated for dairy farming in Finland in the first year after contamination. The cost estimation considered expenditures and revenues associated with milk production and were calculated using farm models developed for economic planning. A hypothetical contamination scenario was designed using RODOS models for atmospheric dispersion and transfer in terrestrial food chains. Costs for intervention after two similar hypothetical atmospheric dispersion and deposition scenarios in early June and in July were estimated. As a reference, the cost of complete replacement of fodder throughout the area was also calculated. Feed substitution costs were higher in June than in July, due to the availability of some harvested silage in the later scenario. In the first case, the additional costs of clean feeding amounted to one-fifth of the normal production costs. Effective advisory/support services, available to farmers, can substantially improve the implementation of countermeasures. However, high costs and insufficient sources of clean feed would restrict the use of clean feeding as the sole countermeasure after serious contamination during the growing season.     

Evaluation of radioxenon releases in Australia using atmospheric dispersion modelling tools

The origin of a series of atmospheric radioxenon events detected at the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) International Monitoring System site in Melbourne, Australia, between November 2008 and February 2009 was investigated. Backward tracking analyses indicated that the events were consistent with releases associated with hot commission testing of the Australian Nuclear Science Technology Organisation (ANSTO) radiopharmaceutical production facility in Sydney, Australia. Forward dispersion analyses were used to estimate release magnitudes and transport times. The estimated ¹³³Xe release magnitude of the largest event (between 0.2 and 34 TBq over a 2 d window), was in close agreement with the stack emission releases estimated by the facility for this time period (between 0.5 and 2 TBq). Modelling of irradiation conditions and theoretical radioxenon emission rates were undertaken and provided further evidence that the Melbourne detections originated from this radiopharmaceutical production facility. These findings do not have public health implications. This is the first comprehensive study of atmospheric radioxenon measurements and releases in Australia.     

基于MODIS AOD数据的南京市大气能见度估算

以南京市为研究区,利用MODIS气溶胶产品数据(MOD04L2)获取研究区气溶胶标高数据,结合地面气象站点能见度观测数据,构建研究区不同季节能见度估算模型,估算南京市2013年能见度时空分布。研究结果表明,研究区能见度模型估算值与实测值总体趋势较为一致,分季节模型能见度估算均值相对误差为14.3%;南京市2013年能见度年均值为6.07km,大致呈现出由市区向周边郊区逐渐升高的趋势;研究区不同季节能见度差异明显,夏季能见度显著高于其他3个季节,在该季节全市能见度均值达到9.93km,约为其余3个季节均值的2倍左右,气候状况与经济社会发展布局是影响研究区能见度时空差异的主要因素。     

Accumulation features of organochlorine pesticides and heavy metals in fish from high mountain lakes and Lhasa River in the Tibetan Plateau

Organochlorine pesticides and heavy metals were analyzed in fish from remote mountain lakes and Lhasa River in Tibetan Plateau. Concentrations of summation operatorHCH, summation operatorDDT and HCB in fish muscles were in the range of 0.13-2.6 ng/g, 0.78-23 ng/g, 0.31-3.2 ng/g based on wet weight, respectively. Heavy metals were routinely found with different levels in fish. The Cu and Zn levels were relatively high with the maximum concentrations reaching 2.0 and 6.9 microg/g, respectively. Accumulation of OCPs and heavy metals are quite different in tissues and organs. Gill seems to accumulate more OCPs due to absorption by its larger surface per tissue. Heavy metal levels were generally high in liver, eggs and gill, and low in brain and muscle. Results from this study demonstrate that the Tibetan Plateau functions as a regional contaminant convergence zone by long-range atmospheric transport and orographic cold trapping.     

Variation of short-lived beta radionuclide (radon progeny) concentrations and the mixing processes in the atmospheric boundary layer

Radon is emitted to the atmosphere with quasi constant emission rates depending on the radium concentration in the earth's crust and soil physical properties. In this way, the ²²²Rn and ²²⁰Rn concentration in air reflects significantly the thickness of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The aerosol-associated, beta-emitting progeny nuclides of ²²²Rn were measured daily in the framework of the atmospheric radioactivity monitoring program of NIMH at Sofia. The ²¹⁴Pb concentration was estimated from the measured short-lived beta activity of 24-h filter samples, changed daily at 6:00 GMT. The impact of some meteorological factors such as wind direction, wind velocity, humidity, and temperature on short-lived beta radionuclides is estimated, and the results show no simple statistical relationship. A seasonal pattern was observed with winter minima and late summer-early autumn maxima. High variability in daily morning concentrations and mean monthly values was observed. There were well pronounced differences between years. The height of the convective ABL was estimated from daily radio-soundings at 12:00 GMT for the period 2001-2006 and from seven soundings per day during the experimental campaign in Sofia in October 2003. In general, concentrations of short-lived ²²²Rn progeny nuclides decreased with increased convective ABL height.     

A simplified 137Cs transport model for estimating erosion rates in undisturbed soil

(137)Cs is an artificial radionuclide with a half-life of 30.12 years which released into the environment as a result of atmospheric testing of thermo-nuclear weapons primarily during the period of 1950s-1970s with the maximum rate of (137)Cs fallout from atmosphere in 1963. (137)Cs fallout is strongly and rapidly adsorbed by fine particles in the surface horizons of the soil, when it falls down on the ground mostly with precipitation. Its subsequent redistribution is associated with movements of the soil or sediment particles. The (137)Cs nuclide tracing technique has been used for assessment of soil losses for both undisturbed and cultivated soils. For undisturbed soils, a simple profile-shape model was developed in 1990 to describe the (137)Cs depth distribution in profile, where the maximum (137)Cs occurs in the surface horizon and it exponentially decreases with depth. The model implied that the total (137)Cs fallout amount deposited on the earth surface in 1963 and the (137)Cs profile shape has not changed with time. The model has been widely used for assessment of soil losses on undisturbed land. However, temporal variations of (137)Cs depth distribution in undisturbed soils after its deposition on the ground due to downward transport processes are not considered in the previous simple profile-shape model. Thus, the soil losses are overestimated by the model. On the base of the erosion assessment model developed by Walling, D.E., He, Q. [1999. Improved models for estimating soil erosion rates from cesium-137 measurements. Journal of Environmental Quality 28, 611-622], we discuss the (137)Cs transport process in the eroded soil profile and make some simplification to the model, develop a method to estimate the soil erosion rate more expediently. To compare the soil erosion rates calculated by the simple profile-shape model and the simple transport model, the soil losses related to different (137)Cs loss proportions of the reference inventory at the Kaixian site of the Three Gorge Region, China are estimated by the two models. The over-estimation of the soil loss by using the previous simple profile-shape model obviously increases with the time period from the sampling year to the year of 1963 and (137)Cs loss proportion of the reference inventory. As to 20-80% of (137)Cs loss proportions of the reference inventory at the Kaixian site in 2004, the annual soil loss depths estimated by the new simplified transport process model are only 57.90-56.24% of the values estimated by the previous model.     

Pollution of the Arctic

The great remote region of the Arctic, which even recently has been considered pristine, has during the last few decades become an object of pollution impact from local and distant sources. The major atmospheric, riverine, and marine pathways result in the long-range transport of contaminants into and within the Arctic. Over the last few years, very comprehensive programs were carried out, the major goal of which was to assess the present state of the Arctic environment (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme and Canadian Arctic Contaminants in 1997). Recent studies on Arctic estuaries and river–coast interaction have been conducted as a contribution to the global IGBP/LOICZ project. New data from Russian research over the last few decades were also received. All kinds of contaminants were taken into consideration, including artificial radionuclides, heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants, and petroleum hydrocarbons. Many localities were found with significant levels of pollution. However, the general conclusion is that, in comparison with most other areas of the world, the Arctic remains a relatively clean environment. Electronic Publication     

Reconstruction of historical trends of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the Venice Lagoon, Italy

Historical trends of PCDD/Fs and PCBs from the year 1900 have been reconstructed for the Venice Lagoon area by using a fugacity-based dynamic multimedia model. A novel approach to estimate the inputs to the system was applied. Emissions to the lagoon were estimated by studying dated sediment cores taken from salt marshes located in the lagoon area. These cores have recently proven to be a suitable tool to reconstruct the temporal trends of atmospheric deposition of POPs. According to the model, concentrations of PCBs and PCDD/Fs in air and water reflect the trends of their production and usage, peaking during the 1960s. The peaks in the sediment were delayed by 5-40 years depending on the congener. Predicted concentrations are in good agreement with experimental results. The most important input parameters, identified by a sensitivity analysis, are the degradation constants, K(ow), the Henry's law constant, vapour pressure, active sediment depth, sediment resuspension, and deposition rates, and water residence time in the lagoon.     

Air quality modeling for Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area

A coupled numerical model of the atmospheric thermo-hydrodynamics and pollutant photochemical transport is described. This model can be used to study the complex relationships between the chemical and thermo-hydrodynamic processes in the atmosphere of urban areas with an emphasis on photochemical ozone formation. Preliminary numerical results of ozone and other key chemical atmospheric pollutant concentrations and distribution across the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area using virtual emission data from area and mobile sources are presented.