Water resource management and climate change adaptation: a holistic and multiple criteria perspective

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to significantly increase human exposure to droughts and floods. It will also alter seasonal patterns of water availability and affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems with various implications for social and economic wellbeing. Policy development for water resource adaptation needs to allow for a holistic and transparent analysis of the probable consequences of policy options for the wide variety of water uses and users, and the existing ecosystem services associated with any stream basin. This paper puts forward an innovative methodological framework for planning development-compatible climate policies drawing on multi-criteria decision analysis and an implicit risk-management approach to the economics of climate change. Its objectives are to describe how the generic methodology could be tailored for analysis of long-range water planning and policy options in developing countries, and to describe the place of climate change considerations in water governance and planning processes. An experimental thought-exercise applying the methodology to water policy development in Yemen provides further insights on the complexity of water adaptation planning. It also highlights the value of conducting sensitivity analysis to explore the implications of multiple climate scenarios, and the importance of accounting for policy portfolios rather than individual policy options. Rather than constituting a tool that can generate clear measures of optimal solutions in the context of adaptation to uncertain climate futures, we find that this approach is best suited to supporting comprehensive and inclusive planning processes, where the focus is on finding socially acceptable paths forward.     

Landscape visualisation and climate change: the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour

The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change is becoming more widely understood in scientific and policy circles, but public awareness lags behind. The potential of visual communication to accelerate social learning and motivate implementation of the substantial policy, technological, and life-style changes needed, has begun to be recognised. In particular, realistic landscape visualisations may offer special advantages in rapidly advancing peoples’ awareness of climate change and possibly affecting behaviour and policy, by bringing certain possible consequences of climate change home to people in a compelling manner. However, few such applications are yet in use, the theoretical basis for the effectiveness of visualisations in this role has not been clearly established, and there are ethical concerns elicited by adopting a persuasive approach which deliberately engages the emotions with visual imagery. These questions and policy implications are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework on the effects of landscape visualisation on a spectrum of responses to climate change information, drawing in part on evidence from other applications of landscape visualisation. The author concludes that the persuasive use of visualisations, together with other approaches, may be effective, is justified, and could be vital in helping communicate climate change effectively, given ethical standards based on disclosure, drama, and defensibility.     

Widening the scope of policies to address climate change: directions for mainstreaming

Both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change require actions to be taken in many sectors of society, but so far this is hardly happening. This paper suggests possibilities for widening climate change policy by strengthening inter-linkages between climate policies and various relevant policy areas to mainstream climate change concerns. It argues that, if these inter-linkages can be strengthened and policy coherence is improved, the effectiveness of climate policy can be enhanced while also supporting these other policy areas. The contention in this paper is that improved policy coherence and mainstreaming requires climate policies to go beyond the UNFCCC framework to realise its full potential and to better deal with possible trade-offs. The potential benefits in the policy domains of poverty reduction, rural development and agriculture, disaster management, energy security, air quality and trade, and finance are examined, and the institutional and organisations linkages highlighted. Finally, opportunities for mainstreaming are identified to make better use of possible synergies between climate and related policy areas.     

Analyzing REDD+ as an experiment of transformative climate governance: Insights from Indonesia

This paper contributes to an emerging body of literature on policy experimentation and governance transformation processes. We use the example of REDD+ as consisting of policy experiments in an emerging domestic policy domain to understand obstacles to transformations in forest and climate governance. We ask two interlinked questions: to what extent did the establishment of the REDD+ Agency challenge ‘business as usual’ in Indonesia’s forest and climate policy arena?; and what does this mean for a transformation away from policies and governance that enable deforestation and forest degradation? We draw on the transformation literature to better understand the role of REDD+ to achieve a transformative shift in climate governance. As an experiment of transformative climate governance, the study of REDD+ provides important insights for other forest or climate programs. Our analysis shows that the REDD+ Agency was successful in some extend in introducing an alternative governance mechanism and in shaking the governance structures but we also note that some of the key actors thought that greater ownership was achieved when the REDD+ Agency was dissolved and the mandate was returned to the ministries. We conclude that policy experimenting is a process, and while the creation of novel policies and their experimentation is important, also their assimilation may lead to new opportunities.     

Review of drivers and barriers for nuclear power in the UK

There has been resurgence in interest in new nuclear power stations over the last couple of years. The UK Government has taken steps to encourage the private sector to build new stations in the UK, a change in its previous neutral stance toward nuclear power. This paper examines the change in government policy asking what drivers have led to this decision and what barriers were preventing new nuclear power in the past and what barriers are still faced by both government and industry. Three main drivers are discussed: security of energy supply; diminishing energy generation capacity; and climate change. The paper also examines other key factors that play a part in facilitating a shift in government policy, namely economics, public perception and waste management policy. Barriers are identified through examination of public perception, and policy. The changes to the planning system are also discussed. The paper concludes by comparing drivers and barriers for other technologies and contrasting the UK experience with that of other countries.     

The science and politics of co-benefits in climate policy

The co-benefits concept implies a ‘win–win’ strategy to address two or more goals with a single policy measure. There is much scholarly and policy attention paid to this concept as a way to avoid making trade-offs between developmental and environmental issues. However, there is no review paper that reviews the nature, evolution, strengths and limits of the co-benefits concept in relation to climate change. Hence, this review article addresses the question: What does the literature tell us about the definition, application and use of the co-benefits concept? Using a literature review approach, this article explains the evolution of the co-benefits concept and its strengths and weaknesses. We conclude that while the concept has tremendous advocacy potential in dealing with the problem that the costs and benefits of climate policy are temporally and spatially not aligned, its de facto potential is limited as mostly economists have engaged with this concept, and there is little trans-disciplinary work undertaken that also looks at the politics and institutional aspects of co-benefits. The article thus provides an impetus to rethink current approaches to studying co-benefits and points to the need for inter- and trans-disciplinary research drawing on economic, political and social sciences.     

Trade-offs and performances of a range of alternative global climate architectures for post-2012

Quantitative assessments help to highlight the main features of climate policies by better identifying their strengths and weaknesses. In this study, we develop a grading system for assessing thirteen proposals for post-2012 climate policy. We believe that these proposals contain appropriate policy instruments which will be considered for discussions about how to design the post-2012 climate agreement. Our grades are based on four criteria: environmental effectiveness, cost effectiveness, distributional considerations and institutional feasibility. We analyze the grades with two complementary methods: principal component and cluster analysis. Our results entail three policy implications. Firstly, the higher the number of policy instruments a proposal comprises, the more difficult might be its implementation. Secondly, proposals which include a meaningful effort by the U.S. tend to fail in environmental effectiveness and institutional feasibility. Thirdly, we identify that the “first best” and the “second best” approaches belong to a stable policy group, and both may be considered as suitable candidates for post-2012 climate policy.     

A goal oriented indicator framework to support integrated assessment of new policies for agri-environmental systems

The goal oriented framework (GOF) for indicators has been developed as part of a comprehensive research project developing computerised tools for integrated assessment of the effects of new policies or technologies on agricultural systems (SEAMLESS-IF). The ambition has therefore been to create an indicator framework where the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainable development can be related to each other in a consistent way. Integrated assessment tools rely on such frameworks to capture and visualise trade-offs (antagonisms or synergies) among indicators between and within the three dimensions of sustainable development. The specific aims of this paper are to (i) present the GOF (ii) present how the GOF can be used to select indicators within the integrated assessment framework SEAMLESS-IF and (iii) discuss the advantages and limitations with the proposed approach. We show that the GOF has several advantages. Its major rewards are its relative simplicity and the possibility to link indicators to policy goals of each dimension of sustainability and thereby facilitate the comparison of the impacts of the new policy on the different dimensions. Another important feature of the GOF is its multi-scale perspective, which will enable the comparison of effects of a new policy between scales. Yet, as typical for all indicator frameworks, the GOF has also biases either instigated by the issues the included models cover or by the stakeholders’ selection of indicators. However, due to the way the GOF and its indicators are technically implemented in SEAMLESS-IF, it can easily be extended and include new indicators to increase and update its policy relevance.     

Policy coherence in climate governance in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Climate governance in Small Island developing States (SIDS) is a pressing priority to preserve livelihoods, biodiversity and ecosystems for the next generations. Understanding the dynamics of climate change policy integration is becoming more crucial as we try to measure the success of environmental governance efforts and chart new goals for sustainable development. At the international level, climate change policy has evolved from single issue to integrated approaches towards achieving sustainable development. New actors, new mechanisms and institutions of governance with greater fragmentation in governance across sectors and levels (Biermann and Pattberg, 2008) make integration of policy in the area of climate change governance even more of a challenge today. What is the Caribbean reality regarding policy coherence in climate change governance? Are the same climate change policy coherence frameworks useful or indeed applicable for environmental governance in developing states more generally and for SIDS in particular? What are the best triggers to achieve successful climate change policy integration in environmental governance—especially as the complex interconnectivity of new actors, institutions and mechanisms make the process of integration even more challenging? What facilitates and what hampers climate policy integration in the regional Caribbean context? This article reviews the debates around policy coherence for climate change governance, creates a framework to test or measure policy coherence and examines how relevant this has been to regional climate change governance processes in Commonwealth Caribbean States. The study found that though at the regional level, there is substantial recognition of the importance of and mechanics involved in climate policy coherence, this has not translated to policy coherence at the regional and national levels. There is a large degree of fragmentation in the application of climate policy in each Caribbean Island with no mechanism to breach the gap. Silos in public environmental governance architectures, unwillingness to share data, insufficient political will; unsustainable project-based funding and lack of accountability among actors are the main challenges to climate policy coherence. The findings fill a gap in the literature on the elements of climate policy coherence from a SIDS perspective.     

Economic and environmental effects of unilateral climate actions

Unilateral climate policy can be detrimental to global climate protection. Our objective is to provide insight into such a policy, to quantify the risk of carbon leakage, and to investigate the effects related to potential anti-leakage measures. We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and propose an alternative, rigorous one, which is different in three respects. The definition is then tested using computable general equilibrium analysis of the global economy and decomposition analysis. We identify a list of parameters that affect not only the magnitude but also the sign of the carbon leakage rate. Manipulating elasticities of substitution suggests that carbon leakage can be either positive or negative. Computable general equilibrium models, which are widely applied, including by the European Commission in this area, should be transparent, and their assumptions call for careful validation. We find that emission limits are properly distributed between sectors covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System and other sectors for the first commitment period (ended in 2012) but not for the second one (ending in 2020), where the target for the non-trading sectors should be reduced relative to the target for the trading sectors in order to equlize marginal abatement costs.     

气候政策研究中的数学模型评述

按照成本分析和综合分析2个层次，分别介绍了投入产出模型、可计算一般均衡模型、宏观计量经济模型、工程经济模型、动态能源优化模型、能源系统模拟模型、综合评估模型等不同模型方法的特点及其在气候政策分析中的应用。指出可计算一般均衡模型是应用得最为广泛的方法之一。概括了气候政策模型研究的4个发展趋势，包括加强综合评估模型的应用、扩展成本与效益的内涵、注重不同模型之间的比较、强调不确定性分析。结果中国研究现状，分析了当前面昨的问题，认为国内气候政策模型研究与中国在国际气候变化领域的地位仍不相称，强度要进一步加强研究队伍建设、扩展研究领域、跟踪国际研究前沿问题，以便为国家的气候谈判政策提供更有效的科学依据和决策支持。     

Tools for developing adaptation policy to protect human health

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to add significant pressure to the determinants of public health, and to current health and social protection measures in high, middle and low income countries. Adaptation strategies within the health sector are being developed to address the multi-dimensional nature of the costs and impacts. We further develop and apply a new generic conceptual framework for development-compatible climate policy planning to evaluate policy options for middle and low income countries that reduce the adverse health effects of climate change. The criteria used for comparative evaluation included economic, environment, social and institutional factors. The proposed framework, incorporating system dynamics, provides a foundation for a decision-analytical approach to support the formulation of robust climate change adaptation policies to protect human health.     

Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development.     

Constructing collaborative communities of researchers in the environmental domain. A case study of interdisciplinary research between legal scholars and policy analysts

The article offers an analysis of the interactions between legal and policy science researchers within a European project on flood risk management using a “Policy Arrangement Approach” (PAA). While interdisciplinary research is increasingly becoming a ‘must’ in environmental governance, under what conditions is cooperation possible and desirable? Our analysis shows that the PAA is not mobilized as an interdisciplinary method, but offers a framework for researchers from different disciplines to learn to work together on a subject such as flooding, requiring interdisciplinary insights. The paper shows the steps that are progressively put in place to reach a common language and reformulate issues by benefitting from each other’s view and approaches. The article concludes by drawing attention to new means of knowledge production relating to so-called “messy” or “wicked” problems, such as environmental issues. Within this framework, interdisciplinary work is not considered to be a pre-condition for the study, but rather the result of the research process itself. The analysis draws attention to the actual (working) conditions established to create an interdisciplinary community of flooding practices by challenging disciplinary borders.     

公共池塘资源可持续管理的理论框架

由于自然科学和社会科学的学科视角和研究方法各异,使得我们对公共池塘资源管理问题的理解不够系统和全面。论文在综述公共池塘资源和社会-生态系统管理理论的基础上,辨析了公共池塘资源和社会-生态系统的概念;从识别影响公共池塘资源可持续管理的变量出发,梳理了社会-生态系统分析框架的演变及其局限性,指出社会-生态系统可持续发展分析框架为地理学、 生态学、 经济学、 自然资源学、 社会学等学科的交流和融合提供了统一的平台,并为资源管理、 政策分析和案例比较分析等的理论和方法提供了新的研究思路。该框架对现阶段我国资源管理政策的制定有重要借鉴意义。     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for research capable of prioritising adaptation responses has evolved rapidly with an increasing awareness of climate change and its potential impacts on rural communities. Research into the climate-related vulnerability of Australian rural communities is only just beginning to emerge. Current research is dominated by hazard/impact modelling, drawing on a heritage of managing the risks posed by seasonal climate variability. There is a natural tendency to use the same risk management approach to understand the emergent nature of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore the consequences for policy advice of imperfectly examining vulnerability through the lens of an impact/hazard modelling approach to risk management. In a second paper in this series, we show how hazard/impact modelling can be complemented with more holistic measures of adaptive capacity to provide quantitative insights into the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change.     

Development based climate change adaptation and mitigation—conceptual issues and lessons learned in studies in developing countries

This paper discusses the conceptual basis for linking development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation and suggests an analytical approach that can be applied to studies in developing countries. The approach is centred on a broad set of policy evaluation criteria that merge traditional economic and sectoral goals and broader social issues related to health and income distribution. The approach is inspired by institutional economics and development paradigms that emphasise human wellbeing, resource access, empowerment, and the arrived freedoms. It is outlined how indicators of wellbeing can be used to assess policies that integrate development and climate change policy objectives, and this approach is discussed in comparison with other work that rather have been inspired by sustainable development aspects of manmade, natural, and social capital. The experiences and results from case studies of development and climate that have done a first attempt to use human wellbeing indicators are reported and discussed. The studies include work from India, China, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Senegal. A number of policy examples in the energy-, food-, and water sectors in these studies have shown up to demonstrate numerous linkages between development policies and climate change. Various analytical tools have been used in the studies including quantitative and qualitative scenario work as well as detailed micro-based analysis. The methodological conclusion that can be drawn from these studies, is that it is possible to apply wellbeing indicators to the more detailed policy assessment, but a link to more general national and regional scenario work is not yet established.     

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neo-classical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.     

Climate change and local level disaster risk reduction planning: need, opportunities and challenges

The field of climate change is full of uncertainties that are limiting strategic disaster risk reduction planning. In this paper, however, we argued that there is lot to do before we get our hands on reliable estimates of future climate change impacts. It includes bringing together different stakeholders in a framework suggested in this paper, developing case studies that reflect long-term local impacts of climate change, capacity building of local stakeholders that enables them to take decisions under uncertainty etc. We proposed a simple scheme that brings together climate, disaster and policy community together to start a dialogue in a run-up to understanding wider aspects of long-term risk reduction at local level. Strategic thinking, which has only been restricted to national and regional planning to date, needs to be inculcated in local level disaster risk reduction and policy personnel as well. There is a need to move from the attitude of considering local level players as ‘implementers’ to ‘innovators’ for which developing a network of self learning and evolving organizations are required at the local level.