Supporting greenhouse gas mitigation in developing cities: a synthesis of financial instruments

One of the major concerns with the post-2012 global climate regime is to reach consensus on how to finance actions needed in fast-growing developing economies for significant greenhouses gases emissions mitigation. International financial and technology transfer are bound to bridge the gap under well-designed institutional framework to facilitate the transition to low(er) carbon development trajectories in developing countries. So far, cities, which contribute nearly 80% of global emissions, have not yet been recognised as a legitimate entity to implement different greenhouse gas mitigation policies and measures with relevant technical and financial abilities. Here we discuss the scope and scale of different climate-relevant financial mechanisms and describe their comparative advantages and weakness in financing climate resilient urban infrastructures (buildings and transport in particular). We show the limitations of current instruments available in scaling up necessary financial flows into developing cities to achieve the long term climate stabilisation targets. Lastly, the paper examines the feasibility of factoring the sector-wise and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) mechanisms into local authorities’ long-term mitigation strategy by raising necessary funds to facilitate shifting the business as usual trajectories in developing cities in the next decades.     

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

国际贸易“碳中和”研究热点领域及其动向

碳中和是世界各国面临的共同问题。经济全球化与贸易自由化背景下国际贸易总量快速增长,伴随着深度国际分工与产业转移,贸易产品的生产者与消费者在陆表形成严重的空间位移。利用文献计量软件CiteSpace分析国际贸易主题下碳中和相关文献,揭示国际贸易“碳中和”研究动向。研究发现：（1）温室气体在全球范围时空演变,使跨区域、多尺度的全球碳治理变得更加复杂,发达国家将高污染与低价值链产业转移至各发展中国家,以生产者责任划分的碳核算原则不再适用于国际贸易合作。（2）进出口贸易逐渐成为新兴经济体经济发展动力,全球碳治理应转向新兴经济体与区域一体化,全球气候政策设计应遵守国际碳市场公平性底线,不断优化碳排放量核算体系,完善碳会计方法,模拟全球碳减排预期效果。重点提高产业部门碳减排意识和产业清洁技术及能源利用效率,利用多种手段改变生态系统的增汇减碳能力。新兴经济体在承接发达国家技术援助同时,应重点关注本国能源产业,发展可再生能源产业,提高能源的利用效率,并运用经济政策与金融工具促进本国的气候变化投融资产业发展。全球碳治理应更加注重公平性与国家间的经济发展、环境资源差异,利用多样的碳治理工具与协商合作方式,促使更多国家参与全球化或区域一体化的碳治理模式。（3）中国亟待通过国内多产业、多部门的增汇减排与国际碳减排、碳中和实践,健全碳市场机制,提高碳治理水平,为国际碳治理合作提供“最大公约数”。     

The potential contribution of sinks to meeting Kyoto Protocol commitments

The Kyoto Protocol to the climate convention makes provision for sink enhancement activities to contribute to meeting the greenhouse gas emissions limitation commitments of industrialised countries. This paper analyses the potential contribution of sink enhancement activities to meeting commitments of industrialised countries. Six scenarios covering different categories of eligible sinks are analysed. A range of the potential magnitude of the carbon sequestered by each category of sinks is tested. Since cost curves for the different types of sink enhancement activities are not available for most countries, a range of average costs is used with the lowest cost allowing maximum use of sinks. The effects considered are the impacts on compliance costs for OECD countries, economies in transition, and developing countries and the mix of actions used by industrialised countries to achieve compliance. In every scenario, at least some of the sinks have costs lower than the market price, so the larger the eligible sinks, the lower the compliance costs for industrialised countries. Greater use of sinks also reduces the net income received by the economies in transition and developing countries. Increased use of sinks lowers emission reductions implemented in industrialised countries and reduces non-sink activity under the Clean Development Mechanism.     

Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments

Both Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China’s demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China’s renewable energy target can reduce emissions.     

Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication.     

Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals.     

Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions/reductions in waste sector in Vietnam

The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO₂eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO₂eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH₄) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.     

Integrated scenario modelling of energy,greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.     

Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39 Pg CO₂eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO₂eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO₂eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption.     

Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia,Canada

Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO₂e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017–2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC’s greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO₂e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.     

The economics of greening Romania’s energy supply system

Despite the declining trends in total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy intensity, and emission intensity over the past two decades, Romania still emits more greenhouse gas per unit of output than many other members of the European Union. The country is looking for further greening of its energy supply system to achieve the clean energy and climate change mitigation goals included in the European Union’s 2030 target and 2050 Roadmap. Using an energy supply optimization model, TIMES, this study develops energy supply mixes for Romania under a baseline scenario that satisfies the European Union’s current energy and climate targets for 2020, a green scenario that satisfies the European Union’s 2030 energy and climate targets, and a super green scenario that satisfies the European Union’s prospective 2050 energy road map. The study finds that although Romania could achieve the green scenario at a moderate cost, it would be challenging and costly to achieve the super green scenario.     

Differentiation of countries’ future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: An assessment of the “South–North Dialogue” Proposal

The “South–North Dialogue” Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries’ emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a “political willingness” scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The “political willingness scenario” will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.     

Meeting Concentration Targets in the Post-Kyoto World: Does Kyoto Further a Least Cost Strategy?

Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.     

Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050

The European Union (EU) has advocated an emission reduction target for developed countries of 80% to 95% below the 1990 level by 2050, and a global reduction target of 50%. Developing countries have resisted the inclusion of these targets in both the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements. This paper analyses what these targets would imply for emission targets, abatement costs and energy consumption of developing countries, taking into account the conditional emission reduction pledges for 2020. An 80% reduction target for developed countries would imply more stringent per capita emission targets for developing countries than developed countries by 2050. Moreover, abatement costs of developing countries would be higher than those of developed countries. An 85% to 90% reduction target for developed countries would result in similar per capita emission targets and abatement costs for developed and developing countries by 2050. Total reduction targets for developing countries would range from 30% to 40% below 2005 levels by 2050 and from 30% to 35% above 2005 levels by 2030. The 2030 target for China would be 40% to 45% above 2005 levels, compared to a target for the EU of 45% to 50% below 1990 and for the United States of America (USA) 30% to 35% below 1990. Emission target trajectories for Brazil, South Africa and China would peak before 2025 and for India by around 2025. From the analysis, we may conclude that from the viewpoint of developing countries either developed countries increase their target above 85%, and/or make substantial side-payments.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

Quantitative analysis of CO2 embodiment in international trade: An overview of emerging literatures

The increasing volume of CO₂ embodiment in international trade adds a layer of complexity to environmental policies and has raised arguments on the traditional production based responsibility for CO₂ emissions. In order to help understand the quantity of CO₂ embodiment in trade and its policy implications, this paper gives observations to recently emerging literatures that quantitatively discuss CO₂ embodiment in trade. The analytical approaches share the principle of using input and output modeling but vary dramatically in study boundary and estimation accuracy. The calculations can be roughly categorized into three types: direct quantification of CO₂ embodiments in multiregional trade, direct quantification of CO₂ embodiment in bilateral trade, and indirect analysis by comparing the scenarios with or without trade. The practical estimations strongly rely on trade partner selection and data availability. An obvious imbalance of net CO₂ embodiment in the commodity trade between major developed countries and developing economies as a whole was confirmed by these literatures. Carbon taxes and other possible limitations on CO₂ emissions have been addressed. The consistency across the calculations could be enhanced by systematic analyses in more detail to convince the international community to take binding commitments for the reduction of global CO₂ emissions.     

Subsistence over symbolism: the role of transnational municipal networks on cities’ climate policy innovation and adoption

Urban areas account for the majority of global greenhouse gas emissions, and increasingly, it is city governments that are adopting and implementing climate mitigation policies. Many municipal governments have joined two different global city networks that aim to promote climate policy development at the urban scale, and there is qualitative evidence that such networks play an important role in motivating cities to adopt climate policies and helping them to implement them. Our study objective is to test this proposition quantitatively, making use of a global database on cities’ environmental policy adoption, and also taking into account a large number of other factors that could play a role in climate policy adoption. Controlling for these other factors, we find that network membership does make a significant difference in the number of different measures that city governments adopt. We also find that there are significant differences between the two different networks, suggesting that the nature of the services that such networks offer their members can play an important role. Our findings lead to the provision of a set of global mitigation strategies: First of all, joining the city networks can lead to a generation of global strategies which can result into climate mitigation benefits. However, cities are required to select the network which provides proper tailor made policies. Second, in the absence of concrete international commitments at the local level, city networks lay the ground for global governance and enable cities to adopt policies independently and proactively. Third, consideration of co-benefits of climate policies can optimize the development of global strategies.