Forest carbon accounting methods and the consequences of forest bioenergy for national greenhouse gas emissions inventories

While bioenergy plays a key role in strategies for increasing renewable energy deployment, studies assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forest bioenergy systems have identified a potential trade-off of the system with forest carbon stocks. Of particular importance to national GHG inventories is how trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and bioenergy production are accounted for within the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector under current and future international climate change mitigation agreements. Through a case study of electricity produced using wood pellets from harvested forest stands in Ontario, Canada, this study assesses the implications of forest carbon accounting approaches on net emissions attributable to pellets produced for domestic use or export. Particular emphasis is placed on the forest management reference level (FMRL) method, as it will be employed by most Annex I nations in the next Kyoto Protocol Commitment Period. While bioenergy production is found to reduce forest carbon sequestration, under the FMRL approach this trade-off may not be accounted for and thus not incur an accountable AFOLU-related emission, provided that total forest harvest remains at or below that defined under the FMRL baseline. In contrast, accounting for forest carbon trade-offs associated with harvest for bioenergy results in an increase in net GHG emissions (AFOLU and life cycle emissions) lasting 37 or 90 years (if displacing coal or natural gas combined cycle generation, respectively). AFOLU emissions calculated using the Gross-Net approach are dominated by legacy effects of past management and natural disturbance, indicating near-term net forest carbon increase but longer-term reduction in forest carbon stocks. Export of wood pellets to EU markets does not greatly affect the total life cycle GHG emissions of wood pellets. However, pellet exporting countries risk creating a considerable GHG emissions burden, as they are responsible for AFOLU and bioenergy production emissions but do not receive credit for pellets displacing fossil fuel-related GHG emissions. Countries producing bioenergy from forest biomass, whether for domestic use or for export, should carefully consider potential implications of alternate forest carbon accounting methods to ensure that potential bioenergy pathways can contribute to GHG emissions reduction targets.     

Global warming potential factors and warming payback time as climate indicators of forest biomass use

A method is presented for estimating the global warming impact of forest biomass life cycles with respect to their functionally equivalent alternatives based on fossil fuels and non-renewable material sources. In the method, absolute global warming potentials (AGWP) of both the temporary carbon (C) debt of forest biomass stock and the C credit of the biomass use cycle displacing the fossil and non-renewable alternative are estimated as a function of the time frame of climate change mitigation. Dimensionless global warming potential (GWP) factors, GWP_bio and GWP_biouse, are derived. As numerical examples, 1) bioenergy from boreal forest harvest residues to displace fossil fuels and 2) the use of wood for material substitution are considered. The GWP-based indicator leads to longer payback times, i.e. the time frame needed for the biomass option to be superior to its fossil-based alternative, than when just the cumulative balance of biogenic and fossil C stocks is considered. The warming payback time increases substantially with the residue diameter and low displacement factor (DF) of fossil C emissions. For the 35-cm stumps, the payback time appears to be more than 100 years in the climate conditions of Southern Finland when DF is lower than 0.5 in instant use and lower than 0.6 in continuous stump use. Wood use for construction appears to be more beneficial because, in addition to displaced emissions due to by-product bioenergy and material substitution, a significant part of round wood is sequestered into wood products for a long period, and even a zero payback time would be attainable with reasonable DFs.     

Full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget in the forestry of China

Forest management to increase carbon (C) sinks and reduce C emissions and forest resource utilization to store C and substitute for fossil fuel have been identified as attractive mitigation strategies. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget of carbon pools and sinks in China are not fully understood, and the forestry net C sink must be determined. The objective of this study was to analyze potential forest management mitigation strategies by evaluating the GHG emissions from forest management and resource utilization and clarify the forestry net C sink, and its driving factors in China via constructing C accounting and net mitigation of forestry methodology. The results indicated that the GHG emissions under forest management and resource utilization were 17.7 Tg Ce/year and offset 8.5% of biomass and products C sink and GHG mitigation from substitution effects from 2000 to 2014, resulting in a net C sink of 189.8 Tg Ce/year. Forest resource utilization contributed the most to the national forestry GHG emissions, whereas the main driving factor underlying regional GHG emissions varied. Afforestation dominated the GHG emissions in the southwest and northwest, whereas resource utilization contributed the most to GHG emissions in the north, northeast, east, and south. Furthermore, decreased wood production, improved product use efficiency, and forests developed for bioenergy represented important mitigation strategies and should be targeted implementation in different regions. Our study provided a forestry C accounting in China and indicated that simulations of these activities could provide novel insights for mitigation strategies and have implications for forest management in other countries.     

Carbon storage potential of harvested wood: summary and policy implications

Within national greenhouse gas inventories, many countries now use widely-accepted methodologies to track carbon that continues to be stored in wood products and landfills after its removal from the forest. Beyond simply tracking post-harvest wood carbon, expansion of this pool has further been suggested as a potential climate change mitigation strategy. This paper summarizes data on the fate of carbon through the wood processing chain and on greenhouse gas emissions generated by processing, transport, use and disposal of wood. As a result of wood waste and decomposition, the carbon stored long-term in harvested wood products may be a small proportion of that originally stored in the standing trees—across the United States approximately 1% may remain in products in-use and 13% in landfills at 100 years post-harvest. Related processing and transport emissions may in some cases approach the amount of CO₂e stored in long-lived solid wood products. Policies that promote wood product carbon storage as a climate mitigation strategy must assess full life-cycle impacts, address accounting uncertainties, and balance multiple public values derived from forests.     

CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention

In its Article 2, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change policymakers gave themselves a long-term dynamic mandate under uncertainty. Taking the example of forestry activities in developing countries, the present article discusses whether land-based climate change mitigation measures in the context of compensation mechanisms for human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are covered under the UNFCCC's ultimate objective. Both the problem of climate change and human intervention act over long, yet finite timeframes. The article argues for taking a dynamic 100-year timeframe as reference for present-day activities. It concludes that increasing biotic carbon storage is legitimate for measures that contribute to biodiversity conservation, as long as it does not serve as a pretext for neglecting technological change. Among all forestry options, the list of priorities should be avoiding deforestation and devegetation, sustainable forest management, and afforestation. The problem of saturation can be encountered by the combination of forestry with the increased use of wood products and bioenergy. Concluding, the article gathers criteria for forest climate activities in the post-2012 regime. JEL Classification: Q23, Q54; Q57; Q58     

Integrated scenario modelling of energy,greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.     

Climate impact potential of utilizing forest residues for bioenergy in Norway

The utilization of forest residues for bioenergy in Norway is foreseen to increase due to the government call to double bioenergy output by 2020 to thirty Tera-Watt hours. This study focuses on the climate impacts of bioenergy utilization where four forest residue extraction scenarios at clear-cut are considered: i) 75 % above ground residues (branches, (25 %) foliage, tops); ii) 75 % above and below ground residues (branches, tops, (25 %) foliage, stumps, coarse and small roots); iii) extracting 100 % of all available forest residue; and iv) leaving all residues in the forest. The Yasso07 soil-carbon model was utilized to quantify the carbon flux to the atmosphere due to the forest residues that are left in the forest in each scenario. The climate impact potential for each scenario was then calculated for the carbon-flux neutral Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forest system in five regions of Norway. The biogenic carbon dioxide emissions associated to decomposition upon forest floor, procurement losses and bioenergy conversion are included in these calculations. Results suggest that if such bioenergy can directly replace a fossil source of energy, the utilization of this biomass was found to be climatically beneficial in most fossil energy replacement cases and time horizons when compared to leaving the residues in the forest. Integrated global temperature change displacement factors have been developed which have been used to estimate the magnitude of this climate change mitigation over a particular time horizon.     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.     

The effect of increasing lifespan and recycling rate on carbon storage in wood products from theoretical model to application for the European wood sector

The use of wood products is often promoted as a climate change mitigation option to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. In previous literature, we identified longevity and recycling rate as two determining factors that influence the carbon stock in wood products, but no studies have predicted the effect of improved wood use on carbon storage over time. In this study, we aimed at evaluating changes in the lifespan and the recycling rate as two options for enhancing carbon stock in wood products for different time horizons. We first explored the behaviour over time of both factors in a theoretical simulation, and then calculated their effect for the European wood sector of the future. The theoretical simulation shows that the carbon stock in wood products increases linearly when increasing the average lifespan of wood products and exponentially when improving the recycling rate. The emissions savings under the current use of wood products in Europe in 2030 were estimated at 57.65 Mt carbon dioxide (CO₂) per year. This amount could be increased 5 Mt CO₂ if average lifespan increased 19.54 % or if recycling rate increased 20.92 % in 2017. However, the combination of both strategies could increase the emissions saving almost 5 Mt CO₂ more by 2030. Incrementing recycling rate of paper and paperboard is the best short-term strategy (2030) to reduce emissions, but elongating average lifespan of wood-based panels is a better strategy for longer term periods (2046).     

A new way of carbon accounting emphasises the crucial role of sustainable timber use for successful carbon mitigation strategies

The roles of forest management and the use of timber for energy in the global carbon cycle are discussed. Recent studies assert that past forest management has been accelerating climate change, for example in Europe. In addition, the increasing tendency to burn timber is an international concern. Here, we show a new way of carbon accounting considering the use of timber as a carbon neutral transfer into a pool of products. This approach underlines the robust, positive carbon mitigation effects of sustainable timber harvesting. Applying this new perspective, sustainable timber use can be interpreted not as a removal but a prevention of carbon being converted within the cycle of growth and respiration. Identifying timber use as a prevention rather than a removal leads to the understanding of timber use as being no source of carbon emissions of forests but as a carbon neutral transfer to the product pool. Subsequently, used timber will then contribute to carbon emissions from the pool of forest products in the future. Therefore, timber use contributes to carbon mitigation by providing a substantial delay of emissions. In a second step, the carbon model is applied to results of a previous study in which different timber price scenarios were used to predict timber harvests in Bavarian forests (Germany). Thus, the influence of the economic dimension “timber price” on the ecological dimension carbon sequestration was derived. It also shows that these effects are stable, even if an increasing tendency of burning timber products for producing energy is simulated. Linking an economic optimization to a biophysical model for carbon mitigation shows how the impact of management decisions on the environment can be derived. Overall, a sustainably managed system of forests and forest products contributes to carbon mitigation in a positive, stable way, even if the prices for (energy) wood rise substantially.     

Role of Bio-Energy Plantations for Carbon-Dioxide Mitigation with Special Reference to India

Fuelwood plays an important role in the rural economy of the developing countries of Asia and Africa. Optimizing energy fixation in forest trees through high density energy plantations (HDEP), gasification of wood, and conversion of forest tree biomass, are some of the potential areas whereby additional research and development input for efficient management of atmospheric carbon in our energy system can be incorporated. For example, the photosynthetic efficiency of forest trees is rarely above 0.5%, which on the basis of theoretical considerations can be increased by up to 6.6%. Thus there is an ample scope to improve the efficiency up to 1%, which amounts to doubling of the productivity of the forests. Recent policy changes and experiences with wood-based bio-energy programmes in several countries indicate that woodfuels may become increasingly attractive as industrial energy sources. Use of biodiesel and the formulation of a project for undertaking 13.4 million ha of Jatropha plantations in India highlight the seriousness with which the Government of India is promoting carbon neutral energy plantations. The cost of establishment of plantations primarily for fuel production and its conversion to energy are major deterrents in this pursuit. Some of the issues in developing countries, like low productivity on marginal lands, degraded forest lands, and unorganized units for biomass energy conversion, result in cost escalation as compared to other energy sources. This paper revisits the scope for raising energy plantations, a comparison of the direct and indirect mitigation potential uses of plantations as an adaptation strategy through reforestation and afforestation projects for climate change mitigation and socio-economic issues to make this venture feasible in developing countries.     

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions/reductions in waste sector in Vietnam

The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO₂eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO₂eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH₄) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.     

The role of carbon sequestration and the tonne-year approach in fulfilling the objective of climate convention

Carbon can be sequestered from the atmosphere to forests in order to lower the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Tonne-years of sequestered carbon have been suggested to be used as a measure of global warming impact for these projects of finite lifetimes. It is illustrated here by simplified example cases that the objective of the stabilisation of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations expressed in the UN Climate convention and the tonne-year approach can be in contradiction. Tonne-years generated by the project can indicate that carbon sequestration helps in the mitigation of climate change even when the impact of the project on the CO₂ concentration is that concentration increases. Hence, the use of the tonne-years might waste resources of fulfilling the objective of the convention. The studied example cases are closely related to the IPCC estimates on global forestation potentials by 2050. It is also illustrated that the use of bioenergy from the reforested areas to replace fossil fuels can in the long term contribute more effectively to the control of carbon dioxide concentrations than permanent sequestration of carbon to forests. However, the estimated benefits depend on the time frame considered, whether we are interested in the decadal scale of controlling of the rate of climate change or in the centennial scale of controlling or halting the climate change.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

The carbon sequestration potential of tree crop plantations

Carbon (C) conservation and sequestration in many developing countries needs to be accompanied by socio-economic improvements. Tree crop plantations can be a potential path for coupling climate change mitigation and economic development by providing C sequestration and supplying wood and non-wood products to meet domestic and international market requirements at the same time. Financial compensation for such plantations could potentially be covered by the Clean Development Mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) Kyoto Protocol, but its suitability has also been suggested for integration into REDD?+?(reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation and enhancement of forest C stocks) currently being negotiated under the United Nations FCCC. We assess the aboveground C sequestration potential of four major plantation crops – cocoa (Theobroma cacao), oil palm (Elaeis guineensis), rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), and orange (Citrus sinesis) – cultivated in the tropics. Measurements were conducted in Ghana and allometric equations were applied to estimate biomass. The largest C potential was found in the rubber plantations (214 tC/ha). Cocoa (65 tC/ha) and orange (76 tC/ha) plantations have a much lower C content, and oil palm (45 tC/ha) has the lowest C potential, assuming that the yield is not used as biofuel. There is considerable C sequestration potential in plantations if they are established on land with modest C content such as degraded forest or agricultural land, and not on land with old-growth forest. We also show that simple C assessment methods can give reliable results, which makes it easier for developing countries to partake in REDD?+ or other payment schemes.     

全球气候变化下中国林产品的减排贡献：基于木质林产品固碳功能核算

森林及其产品的固碳功能对减缓气候变化具有重要作用。木质林产品（下简称HWP）的碳储存是全球气候变化的重要议题,研究HWP碳储量并对其进行功能管理,对我国政府提高温室气体减排潜力并参与气候谈判、提交国家温室气体排放清单具有重要的现实意义。论文依据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）建议的HWP碳量核算模型,研究了1961—2011年中国HWP的固碳功能,继而比较分析了中国HWP碳储量的减排潜力。研究表明：从总量看,储量变化法、大气流动法基础上核算的中国2011 年度碳储量值分别为6.76×10⁸ t 碳和2.58×10⁸ t 碳;从年增长量看,储量变化法、大气流动法基础核算的中国HWP碳储量增长平均值为1 063×10⁴ t 碳和262×10⁴ t 碳。基于中国是世界HWP进口大国,储量变化法的选择应用将对我国有利。HWP碳储量减排贡献的研究发现：中国HWP碳储量为森林立木总量的4.75%~8.42%,平均约为6%;对比中国能源消费的年碳排放量值,中国HWP的年碳储量可以减排约1.6%,中国HWP具有显著的碳汇功能及进一步提升的减排潜力。     

Carbon storage and sequestration potential of selected tree species in India

A dynamic growth model (CO2FIX) was used for estimating the carbon sequestration potential of sal (Shorea Robusta Gaertn. f.), Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus Tereticornis Sm.), poplar (Populus Deltoides Marsh), and teak (Tectona Grandis Linn. f.) forests in India. The results indicate that long-term total carbon storage ranges from 101 to 156 Mg C?ha^?1, with the largest carbon stock in the living biomass of long rotation sal forests (82 Mg C?ha^?1). The net annual carbon sequestration rates were achieved for fast growing short rotation poplar (8 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1) and Eucalyptus (6 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1) plantations followed by moderate growing teak forests (2 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1) and slow growing long rotation sal forests (1 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1). Due to fast growth rate and adaptability to a range of environments, short rotation plantations, in addition to carbon storage rapidly produce biomass for energy and contribute to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. We also used the model to evaluate the effect of changing rotation length and thinning regime on carbon stocks of forest ecosystem (trees?+?soil) and wood products, respectively for sal and teak forests. The carbon stock in soil and products was less sensitive than carbon stock of trees to the change in rotation length. Extending rotation length from the recommended 120 to 150 years increased the average carbon stock of forest ecosystem (trees?+?soil) by 12%. The net primary productivity was highest (3.7 Mg ha^?1?yr^?1) when a 60-year rotation length was applied but decreased with increasing rotation length (e.g., 1.7 Mg ha^?1?yr^?1) at 150 years. Goal of maximum carbon storage and production of more valuable saw logs can be achieved from longer rotation lengths. ‘No thinning’ has the largest biomass, but from an economical perspective, there will be no wood available from thinning operations to replace fossil fuel for bioenergy and to the pulp industry and such patches have high risks of forest fires, insects etc. Extended rotation lengths and reduced thinning intensity could enhance the long-term capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester carbon. While accounting for effects of climate change, a combination of bioenergy and carbon sequestration will be best to mitigation of CO₂ emission in the long term.     

Mitigation Potential for Carbon Sequestration Through Forestry Activities in Southern and Eastern China

In this paper, forest protection, short- and long-rotation plantations, forestregeneration, agroforestry and other activities for carbon (C) sequestration wereevaluated. China may be divided into five sub-regions, of which three fallin the main forested areas of China, i.e., the northeast, the southeast andthe southwest regions. The forestry mitigation potential in these threeregions is the subject of this paper. The Comprehensive Mitigation AssessmentProcess (COMAP) model is used to calculatethe potential for carbon mitigation and the cost-effectiveness of eachmitigation option, assuming that 60 percent of the goals of long-termforestry plans of the Chinese government could be realized. The resultsshow that the total sequestered C by the mitigation scenario between2000 and 2030 for the three regions of China will be 2093 × 10⁶ Mg C, ofwhich 281 × 10⁶ Mg C will occur between 2008 and 2012. The total netbiomass sequestration (difference of mitigation and baseline scenarios) from2000 to 2030 and from 2008 to 2012 is 496 × 10⁶ Mg C and 59 × 10⁶ Mg Crespectively. The C sequestration potential could be higher if othertwo regions are included since the forest area of the two regions amount to26.5% of total forested area, in particular, the land area suitable forforestation in the northwest accounts for 45% of the total. The activitywith least investment cost per unit of C is forest regeneration, followedby long-rotation plantation and forest conservation. The mostinvestment-intensive activity is bioenergy. The total investment for all themitigation activities is US $12.7 billion. The above figures between2008–2012 provide an upper bound on the potential for early startprojects that might be eligible for the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM). The authors would like to note that the mitigation potential andcost-effectiveness of agroforestry and bioenergy projects need to be furtherstudied.     

National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment

An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate the most effective forest and wood management strategies for mitigating climate change.The greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics related to the production, use and disposal of wood products are manifold and show a complex time pattern. On the one hand, wood products can be considered as a carbon pool, as is the forest itself. On the other hand, an increased use of wood can lead to the substitution of usually more energy-intense materials and to the substitution of fossil fuels when the thermal energy of wood is recovered. Country-specific import/export flows of wood products and their alternative products as well as their processing stage have to be considered if substitution effects are assessed on a national basis.We present an integral model-based approach to evaluate the GHG impacts of various forest management and wood use scenarios. Our approach allows us to analyse the complex temporal and spatial patterns of GHG emissions and removals including trade-offs of different forest management and wood use strategies. This study shows that the contributions of the forestry and timber sector to mitigate climate change can be optimized with the following key recommendations: (1) the maximum possible, sustainable increment should be generated in the forest, taking into account biodiversity conservation as well as the long-term preservation of soil quality and growth performance; (2) this increment should be harvested continuously; (3) the harvested wood should be processed in accordance with the principle of cascade use, i.e. first be used as a material as long as possible, preferably in structural components; (4) waste wood that is not suitable for further use should be used to generate energy. Political strategies to solely increase the use of wood as a biofuel cannot be considered efficient from a climate perspective; (5) forest management strategies to enhance carbon sinks in forests via reduced harvesting are not only ineffective because of a compensatory increase in fossil fuel consumption for the production of non-wooden products and thermal energy but also because of the Kyoto-“cap” that limits the accountability of GHG removals by sinks under Article 3.3 and 3.4, at least for the first commitment period; (6) the effect of substitution through the material and energy use of wood is more significant and sustained as compared with the stock effects in wood products, which tend towards new steady-state flow equilibria with no further increase of C stocks; (7) from a global perspective, the effect of material substitution exceeds that of energy recovery from wood. In the Swiss context, however, the energy recovery from wood generates a greater substitution effect than material substitution.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation with scarce land: The potential contribution of increased nitrogen input

Agricultural lands have been identified to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions primarily by production of energy crops and substituting fossil energy resources and through carbon sequestration in soils. Increased fertilizer input resulting in increased yields may reduce the area needed for crop production. The surplus area could be used for energy production without affecting the land use necessary for food and feed production. We built a model to investigate the effect of changing nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates on cropping area required for a given amount of crops. We found that an increase in nitrogen fertilizer supply is only justified if GHG mitigation with additional land is higher than 9–15 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare (CO₂-eq._./ha). The mitigation potential of bioenergy production from energy crops is most often not in this range. Hence, from a GHG abatement point of view land should rather be used to produce crops at moderate fertilizer rate than to produce energy crops. This may change if farmers are forced to reduce their N input due to taxes or governmental regulations as it is the case in Denmark. However, with a fertilizer rate 10 % below the economical optimum a reduction of N input is still more effective than the production of bioenergy unless mitigation effect of the bioenergy production exceeds 7 t carbon dioxide (CO₂)-eq._./ha. An intensification of land use in terms of N supply to provide more land for bioenergy production can only in exceptional cases be justified to mitigate GHG emissions with bioenergy under current frame conditions in Germany and Denmark.