The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager’s sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

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Estimating biodiversity impacts without field surveys: A case study in northern Borneo

In many regions of the world, biodiversity surveys are not routinely conducted prior to activities that lead to land conversion, such as development projects. Here we use top-down methods based on global range maps and bottom-up methods based on macroecological scaling laws to illuminate the otherwise hidden biodiversity impacts of three large hydroelectric dams in the state of Sarawak in northern Borneo. Our retrospective impact assessment finds that the three reservoirs inundate habitat for 331 species of birds (3 million individuals) and 164 species of mammals (110 million individuals). A minimum of 2100 species of trees (900 million individuals) and 17 700 species of arthropods (34 billion individuals) are estimated to be affected by the dams. No extinctions of bird, mammal, or tree species are expected due to habitat loss following reservoir inundation, while 4–7 arthropod species extinctions are predicted. These assessment methods are applicable to any data-limited system undergoing land-use change.

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Oil Contamination in Ogoniland, Niger Delta

The study shows extensive oil contamination of rivers, creeks, and ground waters in Ogoniland, Nigeria. The levels found in the more contaminated sites are high enough to cause severe impacts on the ecosystem and human health: extractable petroleum hydrocarbons (EPHs) (>10-C40) in surface waters up to 7420 μg L⁻¹, drinking water wells show up to 42 200 μg L⁻¹, and benzene up to 9000 μg L⁻¹, more than 900 times the WHO guidelines. EPH concentrations in sediments were up to 17 900 mg kg⁻¹. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons concentrations reached 8.0 mg kg⁻¹, in the most contaminated sites. The contamination has killed large areas of mangroves. Although the natural conditions for degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons are favorable with high temperatures and relatively high rainfall, the recovery of contaminated areas is prevented due to the chronic character of the contamination. Oil spills of varying magnitude originates from facilities and pipelines; leaks from aging, dilapidated, and abandoned infrastructure; and from spills during transport and artisanal refining of stolen oil under very primitive conditions.

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Valuation of ecotoxicological impacts from tributyltin based on a quantitative environmental assessment framework

In the scientific literature, few valuations of biodiversity and ecosystem services following the impacts of toxicity are available, hampered by the lack of ecotoxicological documentation. Here, tributyltin is used to conduct a contingent valuation study as well as cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of measures for improving the environmental status in Swedish coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. Benefits considering different dimensions when assessing environmental status are highlighted and a quantitative environmental assessment framework based on available technology, ecological conditions, and economic valuation methodology is developed. Two scenarios are used in the valuation study: (a) achieving good environmental status by 2020 in accordance with EU legislation (USD 119 household⁻¹ year⁻¹) and (b) achieving visible improvements by 2100 due to natural degradation (USD 108 household⁻¹ year⁻¹) during 8 years. The later scenario was used to illustrate an application of the assessment framework. The CBA results indicate that both scenarios might generate a welfare improvement.

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International trade causes large net economic losses in tropical countries via the destruction of ecosystem services

Despite the large implications of the use of tropical land for exports (“land absorption”) on ecosystem services (ES) and global biodiversity conservation, the magnitude of these externalities is not known. We quantify the net value of ES lost in tropical countries as a result of cropland, forestland and pastureland absorption for exports after deducting ES gains through imports (“land displacement”). We find that net ES gains occur only in 7 out of the 41 countries and regions considered. We estimate global annual net losses of over 1.7 x 10¹² international dollars (I$) (I$1.1 x 10¹² if carbon-related services are not considered). After deducting the benefits from agricultural, forest and livestock rents in land replacing tropical forests, the net annual losses are I$1.3 and I$0.7 x 10¹², respectively. The results highlight the large magnitude of tropical ES losses through international trade that are not compensated by the rents of land uses in absorbed land.

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Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments

In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

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Sustainable farming practices of the Chinese mitten crab (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eriocheir sinensis)</Emphasis> around Hongze Lake,lower Yangtze River Basin,China

Results of a survey of 156 Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) grow-out farms around Hongze Lake (118.48–118.72°E; 33.36–33.38°N) are reported. Area farmed has remained relatively unchanged but production (59 932 t in 2012) increased steadily over the last 7 years, indicative of the viability and sustainability of the farming system that has gradually replaced intensive Chinese major carp polyculture around Hongze Lake. Results showed that production range was 135–2400 kg ha⁻¹ cycle⁻¹ (mean 1144 ± 34). Crab yields correlated linearly to stocking density and conformed to a normal distribution curve, with 66.7 % of farms yielding 900 kg ha⁻¹ cycle⁻¹ or more. Yield was negatively correlated to pond size and capture size (p < 0.01), and farms with macrophyte coverage rate lower than 30 % of water surface were significantly (p < 0.05) lower than those exceeding 30 %.

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Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure,sensitivity, and adaptive capacity

Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast–southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.

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Human-mediated dispersal of aquatic invertebrates with waterproof footwear

Human-mediated dispersal has rarely been considered in wetland conservation strategies at regional scales, yet high concern exists about this aspect for (inter-)national management considering invasive species in other aquatic systems. In this context, we aim at understanding the role of human-mediated dispersal by footwear in protected wetlands with high conservation value. Zooplankton and zoobenthos were sampled in 13 shallow lakes in central Spain and, at the same time, mud attached to waders was collected and later cultured in deionized water under laboratory conditions for 4 weeks. Two-hundred and four individuals belonging to 19 invertebrate taxa were recovered after hatching; Ostracoda (84 %), Cladocera (53 %), Copepoda (30 %), Anostraca (30 %), and Notostraca (7 %) were the most frequent groups among the hatched crustaceans. NMDS and PERMANOVA analyses showed significant differences between the dispersed (via footwear) and the source active metacommunity, suggesting different dispersal abilities among the species found. Human vectors facilitate dispersal among protected lakes, which could eventuality lead to biotic homogenization and faster spread of non-indigenous species. Preservation strategies and education campaigns associated to target humans in close contact with water bodies should be imperative in conservation management of protected lakes.

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On the decline of ground lichen forests in the Swedish boreal landscape: Implications for reindeer husbandry and sustainable forest management

Lichens are a bottleneck resource for circumpolar populations of reindeer, and as such, for reindeer husbandry as an indigenous Sami land-use tradition in northern Sweden. This study uses ground lichen data and forest information collected within the Swedish National Forest Inventory since 1953, on the scale of northern Sweden. We found a 71 % decline in the area of lichen-abundant forests over the last 60 years. A decline was observed in all regions and age classes and especially coincided with a decrease of >60 year old, open pine forests, which was the primary explanatory factor in our model. The effects of reindeer numbers were inconclusive in explaining the decrease in lichen-abundant forest. The role that forestry has played in causing this decline can be debated, but forestry can have a significant role in reversing the trend and improving ground lichen conditions.

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Decline of traditional rice farming constrains the recovery of the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon)

Traditional agriculture benefits a rich diversity of plants and animals. The winter-flooded rice fields in the Qinling Mountains, China, are the last refuge for the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon), and intensive efforts have been made to protect this anthropogenic habitat. Analyses of multi-temporal satellite data indicate that winter-flooded rice fields have been continuously reduced across the current range of crested ibis during the past two decades. The rate of loss of these fields in the core-protected areas has unexpectedly increased to a higher level than that in non-protected areas in the past decade. The best fit (R² = 0.87) numerical response model of the crested ibis population shows that a reduction of winter-flooded rice fields decreases population growth and predicts that the population growth will be constrained by the decline of traditional winter-flooded rice fields in the coming decades. Our findings suggest that the decline of traditional rice farming is likely to continue to pose a threat to the long-term survival and recovery of the crested ibis population in China.

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Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh

This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001–2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.     

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation.

Method

We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data.

Results and discussion

The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.     

Evidence for Acidification-Driven Ecosystem Collapse of Danish Erica tetralix Wet Heathland

We report observations of disappearance of Erica tetralix in wet heathland, which is unlikely to be caused by competition, as E. tetralix is dying before its place is taken up by other species. To investigate the causes, we used both old and new data. Results showed that presence of Molinia caerulea and Calluna vulgaris were substantial in the former E. tetralix dominated areas. Measurements of the C/N ratio in the morlayer were between 21 and 26 under the E. tetralix stands. As the expected C/N ratio in a healthy nutrient poor ecosystem like the E. tetralix wet heathland is around 30, this indicates that the ratio is probably decreasing and, correspondingly, the probability of nitrogen leaching from the ecosystem is increasing. The morlayer pH was extremely low—between 3.03 and 3.78. This represents a pH decline since the 1960s, where pH values generally were above 4. This supports the hypothesis that the decrease in morlayer pH is the major factor explaining the disappearance of E. tetralix and that measures to increase pH should be considered as part of the recommendations for relevant future management.

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Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe: a model study

A high-resolution chemical transport model, driven by meteorology representing current and future climate, was used to investigate the effects of possible future changes in climate on nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe. The model system was able to resolve the climatology of precipitation and chemical properties observed in northern Europe during the 1980s, albeit with some underestimation of the temporal and spatial variability of meteorological parameters and chemical components. The results point toward a substantial increase (30% or more) in nitrogen deposition over western Norway as a consequence of increasing precipitation but more moderate changes for other areas. Deposition of oxidized nitrogen will increase more than the deposition of reduced nitrogen. Over Sweden, oxidized nitrogen will increase only marginally and reduced nitrogen will decrease, although annual precipitation is expected to increase here as well. This is probably because more reduced nitrogen will be removed further west in Scandinavia because of the strong increase in precipitation along the Norwegian coast. The total deposition of oxidized nitrogen over Norway is expected to increase from 96 Gg N y(-1) during the current climate to 107 Gg N y(-1) by 2100 due only to changes in climate. The corresponding values for Sweden are more modest, from 137 Gg N y(-1) to 139 Gg N y(-1).     

A New Phosphorus Paradigm for the Baltic Proper

The external phosphorus (P) loading has been halved, but the P content in the water column and the area of anoxic bottoms in Baltic proper has increased during the last 30 years. This can be explained by a temporary internal source of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) that is turned on when the water above the bottom sediment becomes anoxic. A load-response model, explaining the evolution from 1980 to 2005, suggests that the average specific DIP flux from anoxic bottoms in the Baltic proper is about 2.3 g P m⁻² year⁻¹. This is commensurable with fluxes estimated in situ from anoxic bottoms in the open Baltic proper and from hydrographic data in the deep part of Bornholm Basin. Oxygenation of anoxic bottoms, natural or manmade, may quickly turn off the internal P source from anoxic bottoms. This new P-paradigm should have far-reaching implications for abatement of eutrophication in the Baltic proper.

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Effect of global climate change and human disturbances on tree diversity of the forest regenerating from clear-cuts of mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest in Northeast China

Studies on the combined effects of global climate change and human disturbances are important for biodiversity conservation and natural resources management. Here we use the modified forest dynamics model to simulate the tree diversity change of a typical mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest regenerating from clear-cuts in Northeast China in response to global climate change, double concentration of CO(2) and human disturbances during the next 50 years. We consider the following climate change scenario: the annual temperature will increase 2 degrees C, the annual precipitation will increase 10% and CO(2) concentration will increase to 700 microll(-1) linearly in 50 years. Five kinds of human disturbances under climate change are considered: logging which removes all trees with diameter at the breast height of more than 50 cm; removing all individuals of any one species; and removing all individuals of shade tolerant, shade intolerant and medium type tree species, respectively. We find that the index of proportional representation of species (alpha index) for the forest growing from clear-cuts increases significantly under climate change, but decreases under climate change plus logging. The index of changing representation of species (beta(c) index) increases significantly under climate change and climate change plus logging. When any one species is removed alpha diversity of the forest growing from clear-cuts changes significantly under climate change, but beta(c) index remains almost the same. When all individuals of shade tolerant species, shade intolerant species, or medium type species are removed, respectively, alpha diversity decreases, but beta(c) diversity changes in more complicated ways. The implications of these results for preserving tree diversity in this type of forest are also discussed.     

Functional Relationships with N Deposition Differ According to Stand Maturity in Calluna-Dominated Heathland

Plant and soil bio(chemical) indicators are increasingly used to provide information on N deposition inputs and effects in a wide range of ecosystem types. However, many factors, including climate and site management history, have the potential to influence bioindicator relationships with N due to nutrient export and changing vegetation nutrient demands. We surveyed 33 heathlands in England, along a gradient of background N deposition (7.2–24.5 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹), using Calluna vulgaris growth phase as a proxy for time since last management. Our survey confirmed soil nutrient accumulation with increasing time since management. Foliar N and phosphorus (P) concentrations in pioneer- and mature-phase vegetation significantly increased with N deposition. Significant interactions between climate and N deposition were also evident with, for example, higher foliar P concentrations in pioneer-phase vegetation at sites with higher temperatures and N deposition rates. Although oxidized N appeared more significant than reduced N, overall there were more, stronger relationships with total N deposition; suggesting efforts to control all emissions of N (i.e., both oxidized and reduced forms) will have ecological benefits.

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Shoreline development and degradation of coastal fish reproduction habitats

Coastal development has severely affected habitats and biodiversity during the last century, but quantitative estimates of the impacts are usually lacking. We utilize predictive habitat modeling and mapping of human pressures to estimate the cumulative long-term effects of coastal development in relation to fish habitats. Based on aerial photographs since the 1960s, shoreline development rates were estimated in the Stockholm archipelago in the Baltic Sea. By combining shoreline development rates with spatial predictions of fish reproduction habitats, we estimated annual habitat degradation rates for three of the most common coastal fish species, northern pike (Esox lucius), Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The results showed that shoreline constructions were concentrated to the reproduction habitats of these species. The estimated degradation rates, where a degraded habitat was defined as having ≥3 constructions per 100 m shoreline, were on average 0.5 % of available habitats per year and about 1 % in areas close to larger population centers. Approximately 40 % of available habitats were already degraded in 2005. These results provide an example of how many small construction projects over time may have a vast impact on coastal fish populations.

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I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a “town-hall” meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

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