气候变化情景下我国花生产量变化模拟

利用中国随机天气模型将国际气候变化委员会(IPCC)最新推荐的气候模式HadCM2和ECHAM4与作物模式CROPGRO940-Peanut相连接,模拟了未来4种气候情景下我国雨养和灌溉花生产量的变化趋势.结果表明,未来气候情景下,我国花生主要种植区雨养花生产量大都表现为不同程度的减产趋势,其中在华北地区减产幅度最大;灌溉花生在青岛、大连、沈阳等地区有增产趋势,在其他种植区则表现为不同程度的减产趋势,但减产幅度较雨养花生明显降低.若不采取减排CO₂措施,2056年我国花生种植区花生产量较2030年减产程度更为明显;减排措施对不同种植区花生产量的影响不同.     

磷石膏对麦田CO2排放和小麦产量的影响及其经济环境效益分析

磷石膏是一种可以利用的磷化工废渣,本文以磷石膏为麦田温室气体减排剂,研究磷石膏对小麦生长、麦田温室气体二氧化碳(CO2)排放的影响,并分析磷石膏资源化利用的经济环境效益.结果表明,在常规施肥条件下,增施磷石膏2 100kg·hm-2能显著促进小麦生长,增产达37.71%.磷石膏对麦田CO2的减排作用在小麦生长的各个时期有所不同:施用磷石膏1 050 kg·hm-2处理,在小麦生长拔节期、抽穗期和灌浆期对麦田CO2的减排效果较为明显,相比对照分别减少8%、10%和6%;在整个小麦生长季累计减少CO2排放3%;施用磷石膏2 100 kg·hm-2处理,在小麦越冬返青期、拔节期和抽穗期,相比对照减少CO2排放11%、4%和12%,在小麦生长季累计减少CO2排放7%.磷石膏施用量较大的处理对CO2的抑制和减排效果较好.研究还表明在施用磷石膏的情况下,一定范围内,CO2的排放强度(单位鲜重CO2排放与单位产量CO2排放)与小麦穗长、鲜重和产量呈现显著负相关:即穗长越长,鲜重和产量越大,CO2的排放效率越低.在碳交易背景下,磷石膏资源化利用具有较高的经济和环境效益,主要体现在:与对照相比,投入/产出从1∶8.3变为1∶10.7,即在相同投入的情况下可提高28.92%的产出;每吨磷石膏作为麦田温室气体减排剂,可节省治理环境的费用与增产总额合计约290元.废渣磷石膏资源化利用,不仅可以减少环境污染、促进小麦生长,而且可以减少CO2排放,对发展低碳农业、生态农业以及可持续发展农业具有重要应用价值.     

甘肃省玉米产量的气候特征及其与中国大陆OLR的关系研究

对甘肃省５５个站点的玉米气候产量经ＥＯＦ及ＲＥＯＦ分解后，通过对其载荷量的分析，表明陇东南地区是甘肃省玉米产量最具代表性的区域，并进一步将甘肃省玉米气候产量划分为５个自然气候区：陇东区、陇南区、中部及阴湿山区、干旱山区、河西灌溉农业区。玉米气候产量的第一主分量可代表甘肃省玉米气候产量的时间趋势。它与同年５～９月份ＯＬＲ有很好的相关关系。     

基于静态多区域CGE模型的黄河流域灌溉水价研究

黄河流域属于水资源匮乏地区,据黄河水资源公报,2011 年农田灌溉用水量占流域总用水量的73.9%,故灌溉水价与流域农业、社会经济系统关系密切.鉴于此,论文基于多区域静态CGE模型,研究黄河流域不同省区在灌溉水量不同减少幅度情况下农业灌溉水价的变化,以及水价不同提高幅度下对社会经济系统和灌溉用水量的影响.结果表明:① 农业灌溉水价随着灌溉用水量的减少而增加;另一方面,5 种水量减少情况下模拟结果中各省区最终灌溉水价主要由水价变动构成,说明初始水价较低;② 在水价不同提高幅度下,实际GDP降低,居民的实际消费水平降低;③ 在水价提高15%的情况下,流域总灌溉用水量减少了9.087×10⁸ m³,占流域总灌溉用水量的1.5%;④ 系统敏感性分析(SSA)表明,模型模拟结果较稳健.     

美国的空气质量对农业的影响

农业生产由许多因素决定,超出了个别人为的控制。近几十年来,农业区、城郊农业区、城区,空气污染是其中影响之一。这些农业生产区,有优异的气候条件,是国家或地区这些选择的农作物的主要产地。因此,当空气污染造成减产时,价格可能上涨,价格上涨反过来又会降低消耗者的福利。此外,市场价格上涨仍不足以抵消农产品产量的减     

基于SWAT-WEAP联合模型的西辽河支流水资源脆弱性研究

气候变化与人类活动对水循环及水资源安全的影响是近代水科学面临的主要科学问题。以西辽河支流老哈河流域为研究区,探索了一种水文模型耦合方法(SWAT-WEAP),以水短缺量为指标,同等考虑水资源供给端与需求端,对气候变化与不同人类利用情景下水资源系统脆弱性进行定量分析,结果表明:①暖干化气候情景比暖湿化气候情景明显加剧了老哈河流域水资源系统的脆弱性,降水减少10%导致的水短缺量比降水导致10%所缓解的短缺量要多31.17%;②气候变化对流域农业灌溉用水影响最大,对城乡生活用水和工业用水影响相对很小;③老哈河流域水资源系统脆弱性的主要驱动力之一源自农业不合理灌溉,发展畜牧业、 改变种植结构与高效节水灌溉是缓解水短缺、 降低水资源系统脆弱性最为有效的措施,也是应对气候变化最为有效的方式;④基于供水端的措施(如水库)在暖干化气候时由于水资源供给来源受限,其缓解作用有所减弱。     

三氯乙醛对小麦的危害

工业废水既是水又是肥,利用工业废水灌溉对提高小麦的产量起了一定的促进作用。但工业废水水质复杂,也不稳定,含有多种危害农作物生长发育的毒物,含有三氯乙醛的工业废水就是严重危害小麦发育生长的有毒物质。三氯乙醛的毒害作用较酚、氰、汞、铬、砷、镉等更为显著。近几年来,利用工业废水灌溉的地区,由于对三氯乙醛的危害作用认识不足,发生三氯乙醛对小麦危害的事故,造成小麦大面积减产。这两年来,我们对含三氯乙醛的工业废水灌溉小麦的问题,做了一些调查和试验研究,现根据实践中考察的几个问题,谈谈我们的看法。     

科尔沁沙地水资源投入对粮食生产的影响定量研究 ——以奈曼旗为例

借鉴Cobb-Douglas全要素生产函数,以粮食总产量为因变量,以包括年降水量等气候要素、 耕地面积等经济要素和化肥施用量等技术要素在内的10项投入为自变量,构建1987年至2008年期间奈曼旗农业生产投入产出模型。结果表明:①影响奈曼旗粮食总产量的关键因素为农业劳动力(t=9.44,P/=0.00)、 年降水量(t=8.33,P=0.00)和灌溉用水量(t=6.89,P=0.00)。 除农业劳动力外,其他两项因子均与水资源有关;年降水量和灌溉用水量的弹性系数均大于1,说明粮食总产量的增长倍数高于水资源投入的增长倍数,水资源的继续投入将导致粮食产出快速增长。②根据模型,农业劳动力、 灌溉用水量、 年降水量的回归系数分别为5.13、 1.55和1.46,显示当地劳动力投入及水资源投入均存在不足,单独增加某个投入要素即会导致粮食产出以更快速度增长;随着奈曼旗农业劳动力不断减少,且年降水量波动性增强且呈下降趋势,粗放式的灌溉明显加强。根据模型,其他投入要素不变、农业劳动力减少1%时,灌溉用水量增加3.31%;其他投入要素不变、 年降水量减少1%时,灌溉用水量增加0.94%。③降水的波动会导致粮食单产量的波动,而灌溉用水量在很大程度上影响了粮食单产量水平(R²=0.543);降水量的减少导致农民通过扩大播种面积来获得增产,因此降水量的年际变化和播种面积的年际变化之间呈现明显的反向变动关系。总体来讲,奈曼旗农业生产对灌溉用水的依赖程度不断加大。随着灌溉用水的持续投入,其增产作用将逐渐降低,并且对当地脆弱生态系统带来进一步的压力。     

2003—2013年中国粮食增产格局及其贡献因素研究

国家粮食安全是关乎国计民生的重要问题。2003—2013年我国粮食生产实现"十连增"乃至2015年"十二连增",世人瞩目。论文以分省为基本单元,采用粮食作物的播种面积、产量、单产等数据,从全国和分省两个尺度,定量分析了2003—2013年我国粮食增产状况及其区域差异,全面探讨了我国粮食增产的地域格局及其贡献因素。研究表明:1)全国粮食"十连增"主要得益于稻谷、小麦和玉米等三大粮食作物的增产,且由于期间其他作物的减产,三大粮食作物增产贡献率达到105.73%;2)三大粮食作物中,玉米增产最为明显,无论在增产幅度、贡献率、增产速率还是增产区域角度均高于小麦和稻谷;3)单产提升对全国粮食"十连增"的贡献大于播种面积的扩大;4)分作物而言,玉米和稻谷增产主要得益于播种面积扩大,小麦则主要是单产提升;5)从省级角度看,近10 a我国绝大多数省份粮食均出现增产,但是粮食增产的主力依然集中在传统的粮食生产大省和西北的甘肃、新疆二省。     

CO_2浓度增加对东北玉米生长影响的数值模拟

以东北玉米模拟模型为基础,对其中的生长子模型进行改进,将CO2浓度作为整个模型的输入变量,综合考虑气候变化和CO2肥效作用对东北玉米生长发育和产量的影响。通过对原模型适用性的调整和验证,得出模型模拟的叶面积指数及其他器官干重均有较好的结果,模拟值与实测值基本符合,说明模型适用于东北地区;利用改进的模型分别模拟了仅考虑CO2对光合作用直接影响、仅考虑CO2对蒸腾作用直接影响及综合考虑CO2对光合和蒸腾作用直接影响3种方案下玉米产量形成状况。通过对比分析发现,随着CO2浓度的上升,3种情况下模拟出的玉米产量都呈上升趋势。但玉米蒸腾作用对CO2浓度升高的响应更为显著,产量提高明显多于仅考虑CO2对光合作用影响的情况。     

Future production of rainfed wheat in Iran (Khorasan province): climate change scenario analysis

Projecting staple crop production including wheat under future climate plays a fundamental role in planning the required adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change effects especially in developing countries. The main aim of this study was to investigate the direction and magnitude of climate change impacts on grain yield of rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production and precipitation within growing season. This study was performed for various regions in Khorasan province which is located in northeast of Iran. Climate projections of two General Circulation Models (GCM) for four locations under three climate change scenarios were employed in this study for different future time periods. A stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG5) was used for downscaling to generate daily climate parameters from GCMs output. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.5 was employed to evaluate rainfed wheat performance under future climate. Grain yield of rainfed wheat and precipitation during growth period considerably decreased under different scenarios in various time periods in contrast to baseline. Highest grain yield and precipitation during growth period was obtained under B1 scenario but A1B and A2 scenarios resulted in sharp decrease (by ?57 %) of grain yield. Climate change did not have marked effects on evapotranspiration during the rainfed wheat growth. A significant correlation was detected between grain yield, precipitation and evapotranspiration under climate change for both GCMs and under all study scenarios. It was concluded, that rainfed wheat production may decline during the next 80 years especially under A2 scenario. Therefore, planning the comprehensive adaptation and mitigation program is necessary for avoiding climate change negative impact on rainfed wheat production.     

气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策

气候变化会导致气候资源发生改变,从而引发粮食安全问题.耦合区域气候模式和作物生长模型,可定量分析气候变化导致的作物产量变动,探讨适宜的田间管理应对措施.研究以冬小麦作为研究对象,以我国粮食主产区之一的鲁西北平原作为研究区域,耦合MIROC-RegCM3区域气候模式和CERES-Wheat作物生长模型,开展A1B温室气体排放情景下,气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响及适应措施研究.结果表明,A1B气候情景下,该区域冬小麦潜在产量会有所下降;在现有管理措施的基础上,可通过培育对春化作用依赖较小的品种、 适当提早播期、 增加越冬水灌溉量等方式保证产量,减少年际间变异.该文研究结果可为应对未来气候变暖、 确保粮食安全提供参考.     

Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO₂ and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO₂-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO₂ on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO₂-driven warmer climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

北方冬小麦主产区的高产与稳产关联性及其影响因素

冬小麦产量高低及稳定性对于保障我国粮食安全同等重要。鉴于北方冬小麦主产区受气候变化的负面影响显著,有必要从高产—稳产关联特征入手,探究全面提升冬小麦产量及稳定性的途径。基于598个县1985—2014年的单产数据,分析了冬小麦高产与稳产关联性时空分异特征,并结合气象、物候观测、农业生产要素等数据,应用无序多分类Logistic模型揭示了冬小麦高产—稳产关联特征的影响因素。主要结论为：（1）冬小麦产量随时间不断提高的同时稳定性也增强,高产性和稳产性均呈东北向西南降低的特征。（2）冬小麦高产与稳产、低产与不稳产密切关联,在研究区占据主导地位,且这两种关联类型的分布区域相对稳定,空间聚集性强。（3）灌溉条件是促进冬小麦高产—稳产的关键因素,影响随时间逐渐增强;具备灌溉条件的情况下,研究区的光温水等气象条件均比较适合冬小麦生产,但不同物候期气象要素的波动对高产和稳产均有负向影响。研究结果可为划定冬小麦优质产区和制定气候变化应对策略提供依据。     

Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China

Climate scenarios from a regional climate model are used to drive crop and water simulation models underpinned by the IPCC A2 and B2 socio-economic development pathways to explore water availability for agriculture in China in the 2020s and 2040s. Various measures of water availability are examined at river basin and provincial scale in relation to agricultural and non-agricultural water demand and current and planned expansions to the area under irrigation. The objectives are to understand the influences of different drivers on future water availability to support China's food production. Hydrological simulations produce moderate to large increases in total water availability in response to increases in future precipitation. Total water demand increases nationally and in most basins, but with a decreasing share for agriculture due primarily to competition from industrial, domestic and municipal sectors. Crop simulations exhibit moderate to large increases in irrigation water demand which is found to be highly sensitive to the characteristics of daily precipitation in the climate scenarios. The impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture are small compared to the role of socio-economic development.The study identifies significant spatial differences in impacts at the river basin and provincial level. In broad terms water availability for agriculture declines in southern China and remains stable in northern China. The combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development produce decreases in future irrigation areas, especially the area of irrigated paddy rice. Overall, the results suggest that there will be insufficient water for agriculture in China in the coming decades, due primarily to increases in water demand for non-agricultural uses, which will have significant implications for adaptation strategies and policies for agricultural production and water management.     

Simulating impacts,potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India

Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop in India, has a major role to play in country’s food security. Thus, it is important to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing the impacts of increase in temperature, carbon dioxide (CO₂) and change in rainfall apart from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The main insights from the analysis are threefold. First, maize yields in monsoon are projected to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter, maize grain yield is projected to reduced with increase in temperature in two of the regions (Mid Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP, and Southern Plateau or SP), but in the Upper Indo-Gangetic Plain (UIGP), where relatively low temperatures prevail during winter, yield increased up to a 2.7°C rise in temperature. Variation in rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields, as the crop is already well irrigated. Secondly, the spatio-temporal variations in projected changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the different regions. In particular, monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to 35%), winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%), while UIGP yields are relatively unaffected. Third, developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar to that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the vulnerability of maize production in India.     

黄土高原旱塬地冬小麦水分生产潜力与土壤水分动态的模拟研究

在EPIC模型介绍和模拟精度验证的基础上,利用EPIC模型对黄土高原旱塬地冬小麦水分生产潜力和土壤水分动态进行了中期(12a)和长期(30a)评价定量模拟研究。结果表明:(1)在12a实时气象条件下的模拟时段内,旱塬地小麦水分生产潜力随降水量变化呈现波动性降低趋势,3m土层土壤有效含水量也表现为剧烈波动性和逐渐下降趋势,土壤干燥化趋势明显;(2)在30a模拟气象条件下的模拟时段内,旱塬地小麦水分生产潜力呈现波动性轻微降低趋势,3m土层土壤有效含水量季节性和年际间波动性显著,但土壤干燥化趋势并不明显;(3)综合分析认为,在降水量减少幅度不显著的情况下,旱塬地麦田土壤干燥化只是一种短期现象,不会导致长期性土壤强烈干燥化现象发生,但产量随降水量变化的波动性不可避免。     

气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应

论文在分析安徽省近47 a(1961-2007年)来气候要素及冬小麦产量变化特征,确定产量突变点的基础上,采用相关分析,提取影响产量形成的气候因子,构建安徽省冬小麦气候产量模型,并利用该模型定量地估算了近47 a来气候要素变化对冬小麦产量的贡献率。结果表明:安徽省冬小麦生长季内的平均气温增暖趋势明显,降水量无明显变化趋势,但年际波动大,日照时数呈显著下降趋势。越冬期最高气温、返青期最低气温和灌浆期日照时数与产量呈显著正相关,灌浆期降水量与产量呈显著负相关。近47 a来,气候要素变化对冬小麦产量存在微弱的负贡献,贡献率为-5.89％。冬小麦生长季内一定程度的暖干化条件有利于产量的增加。     

Impacts of climate change on winter wheat water requirement in Haihe River Basin

Climate change and variability has the potential to impact crop growth by altering components of a region’s water balance. Evapotranspiration driven by higher temperatures can directly increase the demand of irrigation water, while indirectly decreasing the length of the annual crop growth period. The accompanying change in precipitation also affects the need to supply irrigation water. This study focuses on the spatial and temporal variation of historical and future irrigation water requirements of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the Haihe River Basin, China. Irrigation water requirement is estimated using a simple water balance model. Climate change is incorporated by using predicted changes in daily precipitation and temperature. Changes in evapotranspiration and crop phenophase are then calculated for historical and future climate. Over the past 50 years, a decrease in total net irrigation water requirement (NIR) was observed mainly due to a reduction in the crop growth period length. The NIR is shown to decrease 2.8～6.9 mm with a 1-day reduction in growth period length. In the future, sowing period will come later and the heading period earlier in the year. The NIR in November, March and April is predicted to increase, especially in April. Increased NIR can result in increased water deficit, causing negative impacts on crop yield due to water stress. In the future, more attention should be paid to water resource management during the annual crop growth period of winter wheat in the Haihe River Basin.     

Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA

Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley.