Current and future emission estimates of exhaust gases and particles from shipping at the largest port in Korea

The emissions of exhaust gases (NO _x , SO₂, VOCs, and CO₂) and particles (e.g., PM) from ships traversing Busan Port in Korea were estimated over three different years (the years 2006, 2008, and 2009). This analysis was performed according to the ship operational modes (“at sea,” “maneuvering,” and “in port”) and ship types based on an activity-based method. The ship emissions for current (base year 2009) and future scenarios (years 2020 and 2050) were also compared. The annual emissions of SO₂, VOCs, PM, and CO₂ were highest (9.6?×?10³, 374, 1.2?×?10³, and 5.6?×?10⁵ ton year^?1, respectively) in 2008. In contrast, the annual NO _x emissions were highest (11.7?×?10³ ton year^?1) in 2006 due mainly to the high NO _x emission factor. The emissions of air pollutants for each ship operational mode differed considerably, with the largest emission observed in “in port” mode. In addition, the largest fraction (approximately 45–67 %) of the emissions of all air pollutants during the study period was emitted from container ships. The future ship emissions of most pollutants (except for SO₂ and PM) in 2020 and 2050 are estimated to be 1.4–1.8 and 4.7–6.1 times higher than those in 2009 (base year), respectively.     

Ship emissions and their externalities for the port of Piraeus – Greece

Air pollution from shipping is currently dominating the international and European agenda on environmental protection. Although port emissions are not significantly contributing to the overall picture of ship-generated emissions, it is important to note that the impact of ship exhaust pollutants has a direct effect on the human population and built environment of many urbanized ports. The passenger (main) port of Piraeus qualifies for a ship emission and externality study by virtue of its dominant presence in the Mediterranean expressed in terms of the most frequent port calls by coastal passenger ships and cruise ships operating in the region, as well as in terms of being a most crowded port city through hosting a sizeable resident and visiting (employers and otherwise) population over a relatively small area.An in-port ship activity-based methodology was applied for manoeuvring and berthing of coastal passenger ships and cruise ships calling at the passenger port of Piraeus, in order to estimate the emission of the main ship exhaust pollutants (NO_X, SO₂ and PM_2.5) over a twelve-month period in 2008–2009. The estimated emissions were analyzed in terms of gas species, seasonality, activity and shipping sector. The application of external cost factors led to the estimation of the emission externalities, in an attempt to evaluate the economic impact of the damage emissions produce mainly upon the human population and the built environment.The results indicate that ship emissions in the passenger port of Piraeus reach 2600 tons annually and their estimated externalities over this period are around 51 million euro. Summer emissions and associated impacts are more profound and coastal passenger shipping, as opposed to cruise shipping, is the dominant contributor of emissions and associated externalities. Overall, in a port city such as Piraeus, the need to introduce stringent control on the emissions produced by passenger ships, beyond that dictated by the current 2005/33/EU Directive is very urgent.     

Identification and assessment of ship emissions and their effects in the harbour of Göteborg,Sweden

The effect of ship emissions in the urban environment of Göteborg has been studied by multivariate analysis. The simultaneous measurements of relevant gases and sub-micron particles make identification of ship plumes possible. Increased concentrations of these species due to ship emissions are quantified for ships entering the inner part of the harbour. Annual depositions of SO₂ and NO₂ are estimated to be 220 and 115 kg km⁻² yr⁻¹, respectively. Exposure of transient particles (less than 0.1 μm in diameter) to this part of the harbour increased by a factor of 3 in number concentration when a ship plume was recorded. Ni, Pb, V and Zn are shown to have positive correlation with NO emissions from ships.     

Anthocyanins and tannins in ozone-fumigated guava trees

Psidium guajava “Paluma”, a tropical tree species, is known to be an efficient ozone indicator in tropical countries. When exposed to ozone, this species displays a characteristic leaf injury identified by inter-veinal red stippling on adaxial leaf surfaces. Following 30 days of three ozone treatments consisting of carbon filtered air (CF – AOT40 = 17 ppb h), ambient non-filtered air (NF – AOT40 = 542 ppb h) and ambient non-filtered air + 40 ppb ozone (NF + O₃ – AOT40 = 7802 ppb h), the amounts of residual anthocyanins and tannins present in 10 P. guajava (“Paluma”) saplings were quantified. Higher amounts of anthocyanins were found in the NF + O₃ treatment (1.6%) when compared to the CF (0.97%) and NF (1.30%) (p < 0.05), and of total tannins in the NF + O₃ treatment (0.16%) compared to the CF (0.14%). Condensed tannins showed the same tendency as enhanced amounts. Regression analyses using amounts of tannins and anthocyanins, AOT40 and the leaf injury index (LII), showed a correlation between the leaf injury index and quantities of anthocyanins and total tannins. These results are in accordance with the association between the incidence of red-stippled leaves and ozone polluted environments.     

The influence of ozone on atmospheric emissions of gaseous elemental mercury and reactive gaseous mercury from substrates

Experiments were performed to investigate the effect of ozone (O₃) on mercury (Hg) emission from a variety of Hg-bearing substrates. Substrates with Hg(II) as the dominant Hg phase exhibited a 1.7 to 51-fold increase in elemental Hg (Hg^o) flux and a 1.3 to 8.6-fold increase in reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) flux in the presence of O₃-enriched clean (50 ppb O₃; 8 substrates) and ambient air (up to ∼70 ppb O₃; 6 substrates), relative to clean air (oxidant and Hg free air). In contrast, Hg^o fluxes from two artificially Hg^o-amended substrates decreased by more than 75% during exposure to O₃-enriched clean air relative to clean air. Reactive gaseous mercury emissions from Hg^o-amended substrates increased immediately after exposure to O₃ but then decreased rapidly. These experimental results demonstrate that O₃ is very important in controlling Hg emissions from substrates. The chemical mechanisms that produced these trends are not known but potentially involve heterogenous reactions between O₃, the substrate, and Hg. Our experiments suggest they are not homogenous gas-phase reactions. Comparison of the influence of O₃ versus light on increasing Hg^o emissions from dry Hg(II)-bearing substrates demonstrated that they have a similar amount of influence although O₃ appeared to be slightly more dominant. Experiments using water-saturated substrates showed that the presence of high-substrate moisture content minimizes reactions between atmospheric O₃ and substrate-bound Hg. Using conservative calculations developed in this paper, we conclude that because O₃ concentrations have roughly doubled in the last 100 years, this could have increased Hg^o emissions from terrestrial substrates by 65–72%.     

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O₃ maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m^?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m^?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NO_x emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NO_x emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NO_x emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM_2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM_2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM_2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NO_x controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NO_x and VOC controls on ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NO_x controls are predicted to increase PM_2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations.     

Influence of ship emissions on air quality and input of contaminants in southern Alaska National Parks and Wilderness Areas during the 2006 tourist season

The impact of ship emissions on air quality in Alaska National Parks and Wilderness Areas was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry (WRF/Chem). The visibility and deposition of atmospheric contaminants was analyzed for the length of the 2006 tourist season. WRF/Chem reproduced the meteorological situation well. It seems to have captured the temporal behavior of aerosol concentrations when compared with the few data available. Air quality follows certain predetermined patterns associated with local meteorological conditions and ship emissions. Ship emissions have maximum impacts in Prince William Sound where topography and decaying lows trap pollutants. Along sea-lanes and adjacent coastal areas, NO_x, SO₂, O₃, PAN, HNO₃, and PM_2.5 increase up to 650 pptv, 325 pptv, 900 pptv, 18 pptv, 10 pptv, and 100 ng m^?3. Some of these increases are significant (95% confidence). Enhanced particulate matter concentrations from ship emissions reduce visibility up to 30% in Prince William Sound and 5–25% along sea-lanes.     

An Assessment of the Emissions Inventory Processing Systems EMS-2001 and SMOKE in Grid-Based Air Quality Models

Abstract

In the United States, emission processing models such as Emissions Modeling System-2001 (EMS-2001), Emissions Preprocessor System-Version 2.5 (EPS2.5), and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model are currently being used to generate gridded, hourly, speciated emission inputs for urban and regional-scale photochemical models from aggregated pollutant inventories. In this study, two models, EMS-2001 and SMOKE, were applied with their default internal data sets to process a common inventory database for a high ozone (O₃) episode over the eastern United States using the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical speciation mechanism. A comparison of the emissions processed by these systems shows differences in all three of the major processing steps performed by the two models (i.e., in temporal allocation, spatial allocation, and chemical speciation). Results from a simulation with a photochemical model using these two sets of emissions indicate differences on the order of ±20 ppb in the predicted 1-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations. It is therefore critical to develop and implement more common and synchronized temporal, spatial, and speciation cross-reference systems such that the processes within each emissions model converge toward reasonably similar results. This would also help to increase confidence in the validity of photochemical grid model results by reducing one aspect of modeling uncertainty.     

Analysis of the effects of combustion emissions and Santa Ana winds on ambient ozone during the October 2007 southern California wildfires

Combustion emissions and strong Santa Ana winds had pronounced effects on patterns and levels of ambient ozone (O₃) in southern California during the extensive wildland fires of October 2007. These changes are described in detail for a rural receptor site, the Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve, located among large fires in San Diego and Orange counties. In addition, O₃ changes are also described for several other air quality monitoring sites in the general area of the fires. During the first phase of the fires, strong, dry and hot northeasterly Santa Ana winds brought into the area clean continental air masses, which resulted in minimal diurnal O₃ fluctuations and a 72-h average concentration of 36.8 ppb. During the second phase of the fires, without Santa Ana winds present and air filled with smoke, daytime O₃ concentrations steadily increased and reached 95.2 ppb while the lowest nighttime levels returned to ～0 ppb. During that period the 8-h daytime average O₃ concentration reached 78.3 ppb, which exceeded the federal standard of 75 ppb. After six days of fires, O₃ diurnal concentrations returned to pre-fire patterns and levels.     

Effect of ambient-level gas-phase peroxides on foliar injury, growth, and net photosynthesis in Japanese radish (Raphanus sativus)

To investigate the effects of ambient-level gas-phase peroxides concurrent with O₃ on foliar injury, photosynthesis, and biomass in herbaceous plants, we exposed Japanese radish (Raphanus sativus) to clean air, 50 ppb O₃, 100 ppb O₃, and 2-3 ppb peroxides + 50 ppb O₃ in outdoor chambers. Compared with exposure to 100 ppb O₃, exposure to 2-3 ppb peroxides + 50 ppb O₃ induced greater damage in foliar injury, net photosynthetic rates and biomass; the pattern of foliar injury and the cause of net photosynthetic rate reduction also differed from those occurring with O₃ exposure alone. These results indicate for the first time that sub-ppb peroxides + 50 ppb O₃ can cause more severe damage to plants than 100 ppb O₃, and that not only O₃, but also peroxides, could be contributing to the herbaceous plant damage and forest decline observed in Japan's air-polluted urban and remote mountains areas.     

The influence of south foehn on the ozone mixing ratios at the high alpine site Arosa

Within 2 years of trace gas measurements performed at Arosa (Switzerland, 2030 m above sea level), enhanced ozone mixing ratios were observed during south foehn events during summer and spring (5–10 ppb above the median value). The enhancements can be traced back to ozone produced in the strongly industrialized Po basin as confirmed by various analyses. Backward trajectories clearly show advection from this region during foehn. NO_y versus O₃ correlation and comparison of O₃ mixing ratios between Arosa and Mt. Cimone (Italy, 2165 m asl) suggest that ozone is the result of recent photochemical production (+5.6 ppb on average), either directly formed during the transport or via mixing of air processed in the Po basin boundary layer. The absence of a correlation between air parcel residence times over Europe and ozone mixing ratios at Arosa during foehn events is in contrast to a previous analysis, which suggested such correlation without reference to the origin of the air. In the case of south foehn, the continental scale influence of pollutants emission on ozone at Arosa appears to be far less important than the direct influence of the Po basin emissions. In contrast, winter time displays a different situation, with mean ozone reductions of about 4 ppb for air parcels passing the Po basin, probably caused by mixing with ozone-poor air from the Po basin boundary layer.     

Benzene,toluene, ozone,NO2 and SO2 measurements in an urban street canyon in Thessaloniki,Greece

Benzene, toluene, sulphur dioxide, ozone and nitrogen dioxide were measured at a mean level of 13.5 m above ground in a narrow, four-lane street canyon (height 30 m, width 20 m) in Thessaloniki, Greece during the period January–July 1997 by means of a commercial differential optical absorption spectrometer (OPSIS DOAS). Primary pollutant levels were found to be 2.5–4.4 times higher during the cold part of the year than during the warm part of the year, the winter/summer ratio increasing with the reaction rate constant with OH for each of the measured species. Ozone, on the other hand, exhibited a winter/summer ratio of 0.36. NO₂ originates from both primary and secondary sources; its winter/summer concentration ratio of 1.4 lies, therefore, between those of primary pollutants and ozone. Pollution levels were influenced considerably by wind speed, while for the street canyon under study wind direction did not influence pollutant levels considerably. While primary pollution was found to decrease with increasing wind speed, ozone increased. Benzene mean levels during the study period were around 6 ppb and hence much higher than the EU annual limit value of 5 μg m⁻³ (1.44 ppb at STP). Toluene mean levels were around 14 ppb and hence also several times above the WHO recommendation of 2 ppb for 24 h. The apportionment of traffic emissions in four time zones used in most inventories in urban airshed models was tested using benzene and toluene measurements at low (<1 m s⁻¹) wind speeds. The agreement between model emissions and calculated emissions apportionment into the four time zones was good, except for Zone D (23:00–1:59), where model inventory emissions were somewhat too low.     

Ozone and increased nitrogen supply effects on the yield and nutritive quality of Trifolium subterraneum

The influence of ambient ozone (O₃) concentrations and nitrogen (N) fertilization, singly and in combination, on the growth and nutritive quality of Trifolium subterraneum was assessed. This is an important O₃-sensitive species of great pastoral value in Mediterranean areas. Plant material was enclosed in open-top chambers (OTCs). Three O₃ levels were established: Filtered air with O₃ concentrations below 15 ppb (CFA), non-filtered air with O₃ concentrations in the range of ambient levels (NFA), and non-filtered air supplemented with 40 ppb O₃ over ambient levels (NFA+). Similarly, three N levels were defined: 5, 15 and 30 kg ha⁻¹. The increase in O₃ exposure induced a reduction of the clover aerial green biomass and an increase of senescent biomass. Ozone effects were more adverse in the root system, inducing an impairment of the aerial/subterranean biomass ratio. Compared with the CFA treatment, nutritive quality of aerial biomass was 10 and 20% lower for NFA and NFA+ treatments, respectively, due to increased concentrations of acid detergent fiber, neutral detergent fiber and lignin. The latter effect appears to be related to senescence acceleration. The increment in N supplementation enhanced the increase of ADF concentrations in those plants simultaneously exposed to ambient and above-ambient O₃ concentrations, and reduced the incremental rate of foliar senescence induced by the pollutant.     

Surface ozone at four remote island sites and the preliminary assessment of the exceedances of its critical level in Japan

Analysis of the recent surface ozone data at four remote islands (Rishiri, Oki, Okinawa, and Ogasawara) in Japan indicates that East Asian anthropogenic emissions significantly influence the boundary layer ozone in Japan. Due to these regional-scale emissions, an increase of ozone concentration is observed during fall, winter, and spring when anthropogenically enhanced continental air masses from Siberia/Eurasia arrive at the sites. The O₃ concentrations in the “regionally polluted” continental outflow among sites are as high as 41–46 ppb in winter and 54–61 ppb in spring. Meanwhile, marine air masses from the Pacific Ocean show as low as 13–14 ppb of O₃ at Okinawa and Ogasawara in summer but higher O₃ concentrations, 24–27 ppb, are observed at Oki and Rishiri due to the additional pollution mainly from Japan mainland. The preliminary analysis of the exceedances of ozone critical level using AOT40 and SUM06 exposure indices indicates that the O₃ threshold were exceeded variously among sites and years. The highest AOT40 and SUM06 were observed at Oki in central Japan where the critical levels are distinctly exceeded. In the other years, the O₃ exposures at Oki, Okinawa, and Rishiri are about or slightly higher than the critical levels. The potential risk of crop yields reduction from high level of O₃ exposure in Japan might not be a serious issue during 1990s and at present because the traditional growing season in Japan are during the low O₃ period in summer. However, increases of anthropogenic emission in East Asia could aggravate the situation in the very near future.     

Ten years of atmospheric methane observations at a high elevation site in Western China

In this paper, the continuous (1994–2001) and discrete air sample (1991–2001) measurements of atmospheric CH₄ from the Waliguan Baseline Observatory located in western China (36°17′N, 100°54′E, 3816 m asl) are presented and characterized. The CH₄ time series show large episodic events on the order of 100 ppb throughout the year. During spring, a diurnal cycle with average amplitude of 7 ppb and a morning maximum and late afternoon minimum is observed. In winter, a diurnal cycle with average amplitude of 14 ppb is observed with an afternoon maximum and morning minimum. Unlike most terrestrial observational sites, no obvious diurnal patterns are present during the summer or autumn. A background data selection procedure was developed based on local horizontal and vertical winds. A selected hourly data set representative of “baseline” conditions was derived with approximately 50% of the valid hourly data. The range of CH₄ mixing ratios, annual means, annual increases and mean annual cycle at Waliguan during the 1992–2001 were derived from discrete and continuous data representative of “baseline” conditions and compared to air samples collected at other Northern Hemisphere sites. The range of CH₄ monthly means of 1746–1822 ppb, average annual means of 1786.7±10.8 ppb and mean annual increase of 4.5±4.2 ppb yr⁻¹ at Waliguan were inline with measurements from sites located between 30° and 60°N. There were variations observed in the CH₄ annual increase patterns at Waliguan that were slightly different from the global pattern. The mean CH₄ annual cycle at Waliguan shows an unusual pattern of two gentle peaks in summer and February along with two small valleys in early winter and spring and a mean peak-to-peak amplitude of 11 ppb, much smaller than amplitudes observed at most other mid- and high-northern latitude sites. The Waliguan CH₄ data are strongly influenced by continental Asian CH₄ emissions and provide key information for global atmospheric CH₄ models.     

A comparison of model photochemical ozone formation potential with observed regional scale ozone formation during a photochemical episode over the United Kingdom in April 1987

A photochemical trajectory model has been employed to calculate the maximum potential for ozone generation in air parcels passing over the U.K. during a photochemical pollution episode in April 1987. In all, 11 trajectories have been studied and the model results compared against an objective analysis of the integrated ozone generation based on the observations reported from the U.K. Department of the Environment ground level O₃network. There is apparently good correlation between the observed O₃formation and the model O₃formation potential although the latter overestimates the former by a factor of about 2.8. The solar illumination conditions employed in the photochemical trajectory model may have caused this overestimation, since the model is formulated for O₃control strategy assessment and simulates the ‘worst case’ situation likely to give the maximum potential for secondary pollutant formation. In addition to the model results for O₃, a wide range of primary and secondary pollutant concentrations from the model were examined, together with the influence of precursor pollutant emissions.     

Secondary aerosol formation through photochemical reactions estimated by using air quality monitoring data in Taipei City from 1994 to 2003

Analyses of diurnal patterns of PM₁₀ in Taipei City have been performed in this study at different daily ozone maximum concentrations (O_3,max) from 1994 to 2003. In order to evaluate secondary aerosol formation at different ozone levels, CO was used as a tracer of primary aerosol, and O_3,max was used as an index of photochemical activity. Results show that when O_3,max exceeds 120 ppb, the highest photochemical formation of secondary aerosol can be found at 15:00 (local time). The produced secondary aerosol is estimated to contribute 30 μg m⁻³ (43%) of PM₁₀ concentration, and about 77% of the estimated secondary PM₁₀ is composed of PM_2.5. The estimated maximum concentration of secondary aerosol occurs 2–3 h later than the maximum ozone concentration. As revealed in an O₃ episode, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 vary consistently with O₃ at daytime, which suggests that they are mostly secondary aerosols produced from photochemical reactions. Data collected from Taipei aerosol supersite in 2002 indicates that for all O₃ levels, summertime PM_2.5 is composed of 23%, 20%, 9%, and 7% of organic carbon, sulfate, nitrate, and elemental carbon, respectively. Aerosol number and volume size spectra are dominated by submicron particles either from pollution transport or photochemical reactions. Secondary PM₁₀ concentrations show increasing tendencies for the time between 15:00 and 19:00 from 1994–1996 to 2001–2003. This reveals that the abatement of secondary PM₁₀ becomes more important after pronounced primary PM₁₀ reduction in a metropolis.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO₂, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO₂ is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO₂ equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO₂ and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.     

Estimating the effects of increased urbanization on surface meteorology and ozone concentrations in the New York City metropolitan region

Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O₃) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 °C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150 m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg⁻¹, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O₃ levels by about 1–5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O₃ levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O₃ levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area.     

Characterizations of chemical oxidants in Mexico City: A regional chemical dynamical model (WRF-Chem) study

The formation of chemical oxidants, particularly ozone, in Mexico City were studied using a newly developed regional chemical/dynamical model (WRF-Chem). The magnitude and timing of simulated diurnal cycles of ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x)_, and the maximum and minimum O₃ concentrations are generally consistent with surface measurements. Our analysis shows that the strong diurnal cycle in O₃ is mainly attributable to photochemical variations, while diurnal cycles of CO and NO_x mainly result from variations of emissions and boundary layer height. In a sensitivity study, oxidation reactions of aromatic hydrocarbons (HCs) and alkenes yield highest peak O₃ production rates (20 and 18 ppbv h⁻¹, respectively). Alkene oxidations, which are generally faster, dominate in early morning. By late morning, alkene concentrations drop, and oxidations of aromatics dominate, with lesser contributions from alkanes and CO. The sensitivity of O₃ concentrations to NO_x and HC emissions was assessed. Our results show that daytime O₃ production is HC-limited in the Mexico City metropolitan area, so that increases in HC emissions increase O₃ chemical production, while increases in NO_x emissions decrease O₃ concentrations. However, increases in both NO_x and HC emissions yield even greater O₃ increases than increases in HCs alone. Uncertainties in HC emissions estimates give large uncertainties in calculated daytime O₃, while NO_x emissions uncertainties are less influential. However, NO_x emissions are important in controlling O₃ at night.