近自然生态恢复条件下杉木老龄林群落优势树种种群结构与空间格局

为探明杉木人工林生态系统在长时间近自然生态恢复条件下的优势种种群特征,应用相邻格子法对福建南平西芹教学林场75年生杉木老龄林群落优势树种种群结构与空间格局进行分析.结果表明:木荷、丝栗栲、刨花楠种群结构呈现反“J”型,属于增长型种群,杉木、细齿柃木种群呈现正“J”型,属于衰退型种群.在种群水平上,杉木呈现均匀分布,木荷、细齿柃木群落呈现聚集分布,刨花楠、丝栗栲呈现随机分布,且聚集程度,细齿柃木>木荷>刨花楠>丝栗栲>杉木.木荷种群大树阶段呈现随机分布,幼苗、幼树、中树均表现聚集分布;刨花楠、丝栗栲种群不同发育阶段均呈现聚集分布;细齿柃木幼苗阶段呈现聚集分布,幼树阶段呈现随机分布,中树阶段呈现均匀分布;且杉木和细齿柃木不同发育阶段的扩散系数随龄级的递增而变大.杉木老龄林正处于向地带性常绿阔叶林演替过程中的一个过渡阶段.综上表明:近自然生态恢复有效丰富了杉木老龄林群落的植被种类,在退化了的杉木人工林生态系统恢复和重建工作中,杉木的混交树种选择应优先考虑竞争力强的乡土树种,如木荷、刨花楠、丝栗栲等.     

天山云杉的种群动态

选择我国新疆境内天山山脉从西到东处于不同经度位置5个地区(昭苏、巩留、乌苏、乌鲁木齐和哈密)的天山云杉林进行垂直样带调查,采用静态生命表法,分析5个地区天山云杉种群的存活曲线和死亡率曲线,为天山云杉种群数量统计和生态保护提供依据.结果表明:其存活曲线为DeeveyⅡ型,表明天山云杉种群处于动态稳定状态;5个地区天山云杉种群均有两个死亡率曲线高峰,死亡高峰主要出现在幼年时期、近成熟前期、成年阶段和老年期.种群的死亡强度和死亡高峰在时间格局上各地区有明显的差异.图2表6参31     

庞泉沟自然保护区华北落叶松种群生命表与谱分析

以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础,将林木依胸径大小分级,以林木径级结构代表年龄结构,采用分段匀滑技术,编制庞泉沟自然保护区华北落叶松种群特定时间生命表,绘制死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线、生存函数曲线,分析种群数量特征;同时结合谱分析方法,分析华北落叶松种群数量的动态变化.结果表明:(1)华北落叶松种群年龄结构表现为稳定型,但林下幼苗、幼树相对较少.(2)华北落叶松种群死亡率和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均出现两个高峰,一个出现在第11、12龄级阶段,另一个出现在第15龄级阶段;存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型.(3)4个生存函数曲线表明,华北落叶松种群具有前期稳定、中后期锐减和末期衰退的特点.(4)种群动态的谱分析显示,华北落叶松种群动态除受基波影响外,还存在着明显的小周期波动,在第7龄级这一小周期波动与华北落叶松的高生长有关;在15龄级这一小周期波动与华北落叶松进入生理衰退期有关.     

南京老山国家森林公园朴树种群动态

运用相邻格子法对南京老山国家森林公园朴树(Celtis sinensis)种群(以下简称老山朴树种群)进行野外调查,以定量方法研究其种群结构特征。编制种群静态生命表,并绘制存活曲线、死亡率曲线、消失率曲线和4个生存函数曲线,同时结合时间序列预测模型研究老山朴树种群的数量动态。结果表明,种群各龄级个体数虽然存在波动,但整体呈增长趋势,存活曲线属DeeveyⅡ型,分别在第Ⅰ和第Ⅶ龄级出现2个死亡率高峰。第1个峰值的出现主要是由于种内竞争激烈,第2个峰值伴随种群进入生理死亡年龄而出现。生存分析结果表明,朴树种群至第Ⅵ龄级时,生存率仅为0.5%,累计死亡率高达99.5%;危险率曲线与死亡率和消失率曲线变化情况基本一致,反映朴树种群生长发育过程具有前期薄弱、中期稳定、后期衰退的特点。时间序列预测结果表明,在未来的2～6 a内,老山朴树种群呈增长趋势。对幼苗及幼林进行人工抚育管理将有助于老山朴树种群的天然更新。     

安徽琅琊山青檀种群数量动态

以种群生命表和生存分析理论为基础,采用胸径大小分级法和分段匀滑技术,编制琅琊山青檀（Pteroceltistatarinowii）种群静态生命表,绘制了死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线和生存函数曲线并分析种群数量特征,结合种群动态量化方法和时间序列预测模型分析种群数量动态变化。结果表明：（1）琅琊山青檀种群属稳定增长型。种群径级结构大体呈倒“J”型分布,中、幼龄阶段个体数量较为丰富,老龄阶段个体数量相对较少,种群在发育过程中存在一定波动性,但种群数量变化动态指数Kp,i。和Kp,i（考虑外部干扰时）均大于0。（2）青檀种群死亡率曲线和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均出现2个高峰,一个出现在第Ⅱ龄级,另一个出现在第XI（或Ⅻ）龄级;存活曲线经统计检验趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。（3）青檀种群的生存率曲线单调下降,累计死亡率曲线单调上升,生存率下降趋势表现为前期高于后期,累计死亡率则相反;生存函数曲线显示,青檀种群具有前期薄弱、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。（4）在未来2、4、6、8和10a内,青檀种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,种群呈稳定增长趋势。     

江西九连山阔叶林雪灾后主要树种残存量的恢复时间

2008年初的南方冰雪灾害对江西九连山自然保护区常绿阔叶林生态系统造成了巨大损失.对受灾4 hm2样地中的1 5901株林木(DBH≥1 cm)进行了统计分析,其中对枫香、马尾松、米槠、木荷、拟赤杨、丝栗栲这6个代表树种进行了残存率恢复研究.结果显示:6种植物残存率为木荷>拟赤杨>米槠>枫香>马尾松>丝栗栲;恢复时间为枫香>丝栗栲>马尾松>木荷>米槠和拟赤杨.恢复时间最长的为枫香(33年),最短的为米槠和拟赤杨(15年左右),种群恢复到受灾前.同时对残存率和恢复时间的关系进行了Logistic非线性曲线模拟.样地中植物种群残存率恢复时间由受灾状况和物种生长速度决定,采用Logistic模型拟合的相关度非常显著.     

岷江上游刺旋花种群格局研究

在随机取样、解剖的基础上，对岷江上游灌丛优势种刺旋花（Convolvulustragacuthoiedes）建立种群静态生命表进行统计分析，以探索其在该地区特殊的生态学意义。结果表明：刺旋花种群的年龄结构为稳定发展型，存活曲线接近于decvyⅢ型；生活史中分别在1a和4～5a有两个死亡高峰；种群数量变化可用年龄结构模型Xx＝3．37·x－3．21（其中x表示年龄，Xx表示种群数量）来预测．X2检验法和区组样方方差法的格局分析结果都表明：刺旋花种群的分布格局随生境破碎程度和水分状况有很大差异，在不同样地分别趋向于随机分布和集群分布.     

福建省明溪县极小种群野生植物喜树种群结构与动态特征

喜树(Camptotheca acuminata)为中国特有种,也是中国120种极小种群野生植物之一。在第二次全国重点保护野生植物资源调查中,发现福建省明溪县角溪区域有喜树种群野生分布点。为了探讨该区域喜树种群的生存状况,基于样地调查数据,以径级代替龄级,编制种群静态生命表并引入4个生存分析函数,分析种群数量特征;利用种群动态变化指数和时间序列模型对种群动态和未来发展趋势进行分析和预测。结果表明,(1)喜树种群龄级结构呈倒“J”型,各龄级均有个体分布,其中小树个体数量最多,幼苗、幼树存储量不足;种群动态指数在相邻龄级间存在一定的波动,V_pi和V_pi^′的值均大于零,表明该种群当前属于增长型,但种群对外界干扰比较敏感,抗干扰能力较差。(2)静态生命表显示,喜树种群存活数量和个体生命期望值都随着龄级的增加逐渐下降;种群存活曲线趋近于Deevey-Ⅱ型,前期死亡率下降较为迅速,而后期死亡率下降趋于平缓;死亡率和消失率曲线的变化趋势基本一致,均在第Ⅱ、Ⅷ龄级出现峰值。(3)生存分析表明,该种群具有前期迅速下降、中期小幅波动、后期逐...     

内蒙古沙地森林草原过渡带中沙地云彬种群动态

沙地云彬是我国内蒙东部沙地森林草原过渡带的特有濒危树种，沙地杉林是陆地上非常特殊的森林生态系统类型。本文研究了沙地云杉的种群动态，建立了沙地云杉种群生命表、年龄结构、存活曲线和生殖力表，同时研究了沙地云杉种群分布格局及增长动态，可为沙地治理和沙地森林生态系统研究提供科学依据。     

中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅱ.次生林的演替规律

本文研究了湖南省中亚热带次生林的种群动态,建立了静态生命表、存活曲线、结构模型以及材积或生物量动态模型,提出了中亚热带次生林的演替基本模式。     

Invasion dynamics of the varnish clam (Nuttallia obscurata): a matrix demographic modeling approach

Marine invaders have become a significant threat to native biodiversity and ecosystem function. In this study, the invasion of the varnish clam (Nuttallia obscurata) in British Columbia, Canada, is investigated using a matrix modeling approach to identify the life history characteristics most crucial for population growth and to investigate population differences. Mark-recapture analyses and field collections from 2003 to 2004 were used to determine individual growth, survival rates, and fecundity for two sites. A multi-state matrix model was used to determine population growth rates and to conduct sensitivity and elasticity analyses. A life table response experiment was also used to determine what life history stage contributed most to observed differences in population growth rates. Population survey data were used in conjunction with the matrix model to determine plausible recruitment levels and to investigate recruitment scenarios. Both populations are currently declining but are likely sustainable because of the pulsed nature of large recruitment events. Survival of larger clams (>40 mm) is the most important for population growth based on elasticity and sensitivity analyses. Adult survival also had the largest influence on observed differences between site-specific population growth rates. The two populations studied differed in recruitment dynamics; one experiencing annual recruitment with higher post-settlement mortality and the other, episodic recruitment and lower post-settlement mortality. The most influential factor for the successful invasion of the varnish clam appears to be survival of the larger size classes. Therefore, any process that decreases adult survival (e.g., predation, commercial harvest) will have the greatest impact on population growth.     

Population dynamics of Euterpina acutifrons (Copepoda: Harpacticoida) from North Inlet,South Carolina,with reference to Dimorphic Males

The population dynamics of Euterpina acutifrons (Dana), a pelagic, harpacticoid copepod, are summarized in a life table based on field data. Highest mortality occurred in the last naupliar stage (NVI) and the first copepodite stage (CI). Overall survival in the field was 0.06% from the first naupliar stage (NI) to adult (CVI). The net reproductive rate (R _o=55.590) and intrinsic rate of increase (I _m=0.28) were sufficiently high to maintain a population with such a low survival rate in nature. E. acutifrons was present and breeding in the field from April through December. Low temperatures limited breeding, which began when the temperature reached 16.5°C and ceased when it fell to 11°C. Optimum temperature for North Inlet E. acutifrons was 25°C, with a maximum laboratory survival of 15.3% and a generation time of 10.3 days. Generation time in the field (20°C) was 14 days. Temperature also affected the abundance of dimorphic males. Small males were always most abundant, but peaked during the coldest month; large males became equal in abundance only during the varmest months.Contribution No. 298 from the Belle W. Baruch Institute for Marine Biology and Coastal Research.     

Age-dependent survival analyzed with Bayesian models of mark-recapture data

We describe a Bayesian random effects model of mark-recapture data that accounts for age-dependence in survival and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and survival. The model is applied to data on the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) collected from a population enclosed in a large cage in the field. The cage population consisted of a mixture of butterflies originating from newly established and old populations in a large metapopulation in the Aland Islands in Finland. The explanatory variables in the model included the effects of temperature, sex, and population type (new vs. old) on capture probabilities, and the effects of age, sex, population type, and day vs. night on survival. We found that mortality rate increased with age, that mortality rate was much higher during the day than during the night, and that the life span of females originating from newly established populations was shorter than the life span of females from old populations. Capture probability decreased with increasing temperature and decreased with increasing mobility of individuals.     

Population dynamics and production of the planktonic copepods in a eutrophic inlet of the Inland Sea of Japan. II. Acartia omorii

Population dynamics and production of the calanoid copepod Acartia omorii Bradford were studied from November 1986 to November 1987 in Fukuyama Harbor, a eutrophic inlet of the Inland Sea of Japan. This species was present in the plankton from October to July (temperature range: 8.9 to 24.3°C), with peaks in February-March and June. During this period, nine generations could be detected, for which the mean population egg production rate and midstage abundance of each life stage older than naupliar Stage (N) II were determined to trace survival. The population suffered extremely high mortality during the early life stages: on average only 2.5% of the eggs produced recruited into NII. This large loss is probably concentrated within the egg stage, due to predation, including cannibalism, by omnivorous copepods, in addition to sinking loss of eggs in the water column. However, the mortality from NII to copepodite Stage (C) V was negligible, indicating low predation pressure by large carnivores. The biomass of A. omorii showed marked seasonal variations in parallel with numerical abundance. The instantaneous growth rate of each stage increased exponentially with increasing temperature. The integrated production rate of A. omorii from 7 November 1986 to 21 July 1987 was 749 mg Cm^-3 or 5.62 g Cm^-2     

Interactive effects of prey and p,p'-DDE on burrowing owl population dynamics.

We used population models to explore the effects of the organochlorine contaminant p,p'-DDE and fluctuations in vole availability on the population dynamics of Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia). Previous work indicated an interaction between low biomass of voles in the diet and moderate levels of p,p'-DDE in Burrowing Owl eggs that led to reproductive impairment. We constructed periodic and stochastic matrix models that incorporated three vole population states observed in the field: average, peak, and crash years. We modeled varying frequencies of vole crash years and a range of impairment of owl demographic rates in vole crash years. Vole availability had a greater impact on owl population growth rate than did reproductive impairment if vole populations peaked and crashed frequently. However, this difference disappeared as the frequency of vole crash years declined to once per decade. Fecundity, the demographic rate most affected by p,p'-DDE, had less impact on population growth rate than adult or juvenile survival. A life table response experiment of time-invariant matrices for average, peak, and crash vole conditions showed that low population growth under vole crash conditions was due to low adult and juvenile survival rates, whereas the extremely high population growth under vole peak conditions was due to increased fecundity. Our results suggest that even simple models can provide useful insights into complex ecological interactions. This is particularly valuable when temporal or spatial scales preclude manipulative experimental work in the field or laboratory.     

Albatross populations in peril: a population trajectory for black-browed albatrosses at south Georgia.

Simulation modeling was used to reconstruct Black-browed Albatross (Diomedea melanophris) population trends. Close approximations to observed data were accomplished by annually varying survival rates, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years. The temporal shift in annual values coincided with the start of longline fishing at South Georgia and potential changes in krill abundance. We used 23 years of demographic data from long-term studies of a breeding colony of this species at Bird Island, South Georgia, to validate our model. When we used annual parameter estimates for survival, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years, our model trajectory closely followed the observed changes in breeding population size over time. Population growth rate was below replacement (lambda < 1) in most years and was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. This supports the recent IUCN uplisting of this species from "Vulnerable" to "Endangered." Comparison of pre-1988 and post-1988 demography (before and after the inception of a longline fishery in the breeding area) reveals a decrease in lambda from 0.963 to 0.910. A life table response experiment (LTRE) showed that this decline in lambda was caused mostly by declines in survival of adults. If 1988-1998 demographic rates are maintained, the model predicts a 98% chance of a population of fewer than 25 pairs within 78 years. For this population to recover to a status under which it could be "delisted," a 10% increase in survival of all age classes would be needed.     

Individual heterogeneity and senescence in silvereyes on Heron Island

Individual heterogeneity and correlations between life history traits play a fundamental role in life history evolution and population dynamics. Unobserved individual heterogeneity in survival can be a nuisance for estimation of age effects at the individual level by causing bias due to mortality selection. We jointly analyze survival and breeding output from successful breeding attempts in an island population of Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus) by fitting models that incorporate age effects and individual heterogeneity via random effects. The number of offspring produced increased with age of parents in their first years of life but then eventually declined with age. A similar pattern was found for the probability of successful breeding. Annual survival declined with age even when individual heterogeneity was not accounted for. The rate of senescence in survival, however, depends on the variance of individual heterogeneity and vice versa; hence, both cannot be simultaneously estimated with precision. Model selection supported individual heterogeneity in breeding performance, but we found no correlation between individual heterogeneity in survival and breeding performance. We argue that individual random effects, unless unambiguously identified, should be treated as statistical nuisance or taken as a starting point in a search for mechanisms rather than given direct biological interpretation.     

Population dynamics and production of the planktonic copepods in a eutrophic inlet of the Inland Sea of Japan. III.Paracalanus sp.

Population dynamics and production of the calanoid copepodParacalanus sp. were studied from November 1986 to November 1987 in Fukuyama Harbor, a eutrophic inlet of the Inland Sea of Japan. This species was perennial, with a large abundance peak in June/July and small peaks in September/October and November/December. During a year of investigation, 15 generations Gould be detected. For each generation, the mean population egg production rate and the mean daily midstage abundance front NIII to CV were determined to obtain a survival curve from egg to CV. The mortality was extremely high during the early life stages: on average only 7.1% of the eggs produced might survive into NIII. This high mortality might be caused by predation by sympatric omnivorous copepods, in addition to sinking loss of eggs from the waten column. The biomass ofParacalanus sp. showed marked seasonal variations largely in parallel with numerical abundance. The instantaneous growth rate of each developmental stage increased exponentially with temperature up to 20 °C, above which the rate was constant. The annual integrated production rate was 734 mg C m^–3 yr^–1 or 5.5 g C m^–2 yr^–1.